Suddenly completed geoengineering of the Earth’s atmosphere is more dangerous than climate change

    The eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in 1991 led to the release of 10 cubic kilometers of rock. As a result, our planet was temporarily cooled . Scientists who are confronted with the problem of climate change are thinking about the possibility of repeating natural processes and applying the method of solar geo-engineering .

    According to an article in Nature Ecology & Evolution, solar geoengineering is a quick way to combat global warming. The problem is that after the start of the project by one or several countries, it must be completed: a lack of funding, interstate conflicts or other reasons for stopping the project will endanger many species of living creatures to disappear.


    Pinatubo Volcano, one of the first eruptions in 1991

    The level of environmental pollution is increasing. The average annual temperature on the planet continues to rise. Experts blame the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, which act as a blanket .

    The main “supplier” of carbon dioxide is man. Until the 18th century, carbon dioxide was at about the same level, and changes in quantity varied due to volcanic eruptions, fires in forests and other processes. The industrial revolution changed that: we began to burn natural resources.

    A person tries to reduce emissions, but the concentration of carbon dioxide does not decrease. In 2015, its concentration grew one and a half times faster than in the previous decade. Continued growth in carbon dioxide could have serious environmental and economic consequences, as suggested by the World Meteorological Organization in its 2016 report.



    It is known that the process of global warming is slowed down by clouds . They serve as a natural regulator: the higher the temperature - the more water evaporates, the more evaporation - the more clouds. Moreover, water vapor in itself leads to warming, while the sun's rays reflect dense clouds. From 1998 to 2013, global warming was slowing down - scientists assume that this type of cloud is responsible.

    Another reason for the slowdown in global warming is volcanic ash. As a result of large-scale eruptions, the average temperature slows the rise due to the fact that the sun's rays become difficult to pass through the atmosphere.

    Scientists and activists began to discuss the possibility of intervening in the process of global warming and stop it. One of such methods is solar geoengineering. The technology, which is now at the idea stage, involves the ejection of a cloud of particles into the atmosphere. It is so cheap that even a single rogue state could finance it. Harvard Solar Geoengineering Research Program , Executive Director of the Harvard Solar Geo-Engineering Research Program , Gernot Wagner, by telephone, told Motherboard: "I believe that there is a real possibility that someone will pull this trigger somewhere."

    The paper, published by Christopher Trisos, an ecologist from the National Socil-Environmental Synthesis Center , outlined scenarios of what impact such a project would have on the biodiversity of the planet if a person starts releasing reflective aerosols into the atmosphere in 2020 and suddenly stops in 2070: "No one made a global assessment of how climate change through geo-engineering will affect biodiversity and ecosystems." Environmentalists compared the results of a simulation of geoengineering and climate change forecast, taking into account the continuation of temperature growth.

    At the first stage, living organisms will cease to move to other habitats in response to rising temperatures. Species that can move easily - such as migratory birds - can return to their original ecosystems. And corals that are not so easy to move around will have a better chance of survival than before the launch of the bioengineering program. However, in several decades, the creatures will start moving again, as it would be in a scenario with no human intervention in these processes.

    Suddenly, in 2070, the governments of the countries participating in the project raise the issue of stopping its financing. In the atmosphere cease to produce aerosols. The warming process, which would smoothly take place over 50 years, in this case occurs over ten years. Living beings will have to move three times faster than the current course of things to cope with the heat. In tropical areas, organisms will have to travel 9.8 km per year, which is much higher than the speed at which most of them are capable.

    Habitats will begin to fragment: the species that are now in the same habitat will have to move in different directions. When the temperature changes in one direction, and the amount of precipitation in the other, the whole ecosystem is disturbed, and the species living in it die.

    Solar geoengineering some politicians today consider it a potentially successful tool to combat global warming. But the consequences of such an intervention have not been studied. Views will have to adapt or move in order to adapt to the changes. The sudden termination of the project on geoengineering will lead to the fact that the temperature "jump" faster than it does now and is projected to occur in the next few decades. This puts biodiversity on the planet at risk.

    This is just one of the scenarios, but such a theory has a right to exist. The authors of the study are convinced of the need for further studies related to geoengineering, but they believe that reducing greenhouse gases will help improve the situation: “We know that this is possible: we have enough solar and wind energy to provide the entire planet and not to use the atmosphere as a drain pipe ".

    The scientific article was published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution (doi: 10.1038 / s41559-017-0431-0).

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