The UN can complete a large-scale random experiment to reduce the rate of occurrence of global warming.

Original author: James Temple
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The results of a number of studies show that shipping directly affects climate change. Namely - reduces the activity of the onset of global warming. Yes, annually ships emit billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the environment. But besides him, they also emit sulfur, which somewhat disperses sunlight in the atmosphere and contributes to the formation of cloud cover reflecting the sun's rays.



In general, shipping has allowed a large-scale climate change experiment to be conducted for almost a hundred years. According to some experts, the average annual temperature due to ships is now 0.25 C lower than it could be if it were not for shipping. Basic data was calculated in 2009. For our world, the average annual temperature of air in which in a relatively short time has risen by 2 C is a lot.

But a quarter of a degree, which plays such a large role, may soon disappear.

In 2016, the International Maritime Organization of the United Nations stated that by 2020, ships of international importance should reduce the level of sulfur emissions into the atmosphere. Now in sulfur fuel - 3.5%, this is the maximum allowed amount of this element in the fuel for ships. By 2020, shipping should switch to fuel with a sulfur content of about 0.5%, or shipowners should supply sewage treatment plants that will carry out additional purification of exhausts. You can read about this in more detail in the Shell brochure .

The reasons for which it is necessary to reduce sulfur emissions are serious: it is harm to human health, and acid rain, and the destruction of the ozone layer.

However, everything is not so clear. An Environmental Science & Technology publication from 2009 states that reducing sulfur emissions is a double-edged sword. “If we take into account the influence of sulfur on climate, then shipping will contribute to its early onset: on the one hand, it is carbon dioxide emissions, on the other - reduction of sulfur emissions. Therefore, a few decades later, all this will lead to the fact that shipping will contribute to warming. "

All the same can be said about burning coal. Some studies show that reducing the consumption of this type of fuel and energy source by China has led to a reduction in sulfur emissions and an increase in the rate of onset of global warming.

However, it is difficult to talk about numbers, because it is almost impossible to find out how much of the sulfur and its compounds emitted into the atmosphere is affected. Scientists are still not everyone knows about the physics of clouds and the behavior of particles of various substances and elements in the atmosphere, it is also unclear how actively shipping will strive to comply with the new rules proposed by the UN.

Another point is that ships, when burning fuel, emit other particles into the atmosphere, including carbon, the main component of soot. And these particles lead to the formation of clouds. If you reduce the amount of sulfur in the fuel, all this can lead to the fact that carbon particles of smaller diameter emitted into the atmosphere will not cause the appearance of clouds as actively as it does now.

“We don’t know how strong the changes will be,” says Lynn Russer, a professor of climatology at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography.

The upcoming changes provide an opportunity to think about a number of factors of climate formation and the need for additional research in this area.

Sulfur particles cool the planet directly and indirectly. Direct exposure is the strong oxidizing ability of sulfur dioxide. Thanks to this compound allows you to form particles that reflect the light of the sun back into space. This happens, in particular, during large volcanic eruptions, which releases tens of millions of tons of sulfur dioxide.

The indirect pathway is the possibility of forming the smallest droplets of water around the core of sulfur particles. As a result, clouds are formed, which reflect even more sunlight. The satellite images clearly show that a large number of clouds form at the points of passage of major shipping routes.

Researchers are studying both ways as an opportunity to change the climate, however, less toxic particles are considered in the study. For example, researchers at the University of Washington spent years exploring the possibility of dispersing the smallest salt particles in the atmosphere over the coasts in order to more often form clouds. The group of scientists in question spent several years in the study, and all this time, experts have tried to find funding to test their assumptions.

Scientists are convinced that the current situation with shipping is an excellent option to test some theories of human influence on the environment. In general, it all depends on whether experts can find funding for future research, which requires more frequent study of the surface of the planet from satellites, as well as the placement of sensors on the surface of the planet. It would be great if scientists were able to test their proposals before the effect of the UN requirements for shipping began to change the situation with warming.

“We have a dangerous temperature increase ahead, so the effect on 0.1 or 0.2 C is very important,” said Kelly Wonser, head of the Marine Cloud Brightening Project.

Whether scientists will be able to raise funds to finance their plans is not yet clear. But some countries began to devote more time to climate change, investing in a detailed study of climate dynamics and the factors that influence it.

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