5+ technologies that will never be
Written suddenly, in spite of the post habrahabr.ru/blogs/columns/79288
When I was born in 1980, my dad watched me and my mother in a videophone in the hospital. Now there is no video phone.
When I worked at one telecom for the year 2003, we brought in a batch of Polycom video communication stations, counting on rich implementation. Stations are in stock.
Now, when the tantrum about 3G in GSM networks has gone (which in itself is absurd), marketers call video telephony one of the main applications again, probably for the hundredth time.
I have a vague suspicion that this will be another zilch. And the problem here is not in technology (see the first paragraph), but in human psychology.
In the seventies we already made our choice. In fact, we exchanged stars for computer shooters. The point of no return has been passed - too many forces of all active humanity have been invested in computer technology, but the traditional “heavy” ones have almost been lost.
I am not saying that it is good or bad, I simply state a fact. There will not be any “vertical” progress in space technologies - as we flew 50 years on barrels with kerosene and hydrazine, so we will.
In the 80s of the 20th century it was already technologically possible to create small-sized mobile nuclear reactors. They saw a lot of applications - from atomic locomotives on railways to heating remote villages in the Far North. A little earlier, work was underway on a nuclear rocket engine, which is now trying to reanimate (mainly in the form of beautiful pictures).
The Chernobyl syndrome has put a bullet in the progress of nuclear technology.
We will not see the ATEC, municipal nuclear power, small-sized autonomous desalination of sea water (is the only prototype in Shevchenko alive interesting? Or have the Kazakhs already cut it out?), A civilian fleet using nuclear energy.
Attempts to build a megaTOCAMAC in the form of ITER are reminiscent of a dough on a global scale rather than a real scientific and applied project.
“A cow is not a herbivore, but a microbivore. Trillions of microbes live in her stomach, decomposing the food she absorbs, and already the cow digests the microbes. So why not give the microbes another nutrition, more nutritious, on which they will grow faster and fatter? ”
From this simple thought, biotechnology was born, and then successfully died in infancy. The production of artificial organic compounds, first simple as urea, for feed additives, and then more complex, up to artificial proteins, from simple hydrocarbons.
This promised a real revolution in agriculture and in the economy as a whole.
Only the ruins of the Manturovsky Biochemical Plant, on which modern barbarians put sawmills, are now left from the whole industry.
No comments.
PS The post does not give any estimates, only states the facts. It is possible that somewhere accuracy has been brought to the detriment of simplicity of presentation - I apologize.
PPS I welcome reasonable criticism, clarifications and additions to the list.
1. Video telephony as the simplest example
When I was born in 1980, my dad watched me and my mother in a videophone in the hospital. Now there is no video phone.
When I worked at one telecom for the year 2003, we brought in a batch of Polycom video communication stations, counting on rich implementation. Stations are in stock.
Now, when the tantrum about 3G in GSM networks has gone (which in itself is absurd), marketers call video telephony one of the main applications again, probably for the hundredth time.
I have a vague suspicion that this will be another zilch. And the problem here is not in technology (see the first paragraph), but in human psychology.
2. Space
In the seventies we already made our choice. In fact, we exchanged stars for computer shooters. The point of no return has been passed - too many forces of all active humanity have been invested in computer technology, but the traditional “heavy” ones have almost been lost.
I am not saying that it is good or bad, I simply state a fact. There will not be any “vertical” progress in space technologies - as we flew 50 years on barrels with kerosene and hydrazine, so we will.
3. Nuclear and thermonuclear technologies
In the 80s of the 20th century it was already technologically possible to create small-sized mobile nuclear reactors. They saw a lot of applications - from atomic locomotives on railways to heating remote villages in the Far North. A little earlier, work was underway on a nuclear rocket engine, which is now trying to reanimate (mainly in the form of beautiful pictures).
The Chernobyl syndrome has put a bullet in the progress of nuclear technology.
We will not see the ATEC, municipal nuclear power, small-sized autonomous desalination of sea water (is the only prototype in Shevchenko alive interesting? Or have the Kazakhs already cut it out?), A civilian fleet using nuclear energy.
Attempts to build a megaTOCAMAC in the form of ITER are reminiscent of a dough on a global scale rather than a real scientific and applied project.
4. Biotechnology
“A cow is not a herbivore, but a microbivore. Trillions of microbes live in her stomach, decomposing the food she absorbs, and already the cow digests the microbes. So why not give the microbes another nutrition, more nutritious, on which they will grow faster and fatter? ”
From this simple thought, biotechnology was born, and then successfully died in infancy. The production of artificial organic compounds, first simple as urea, for feed additives, and then more complex, up to artificial proteins, from simple hydrocarbons.
This promised a real revolution in agriculture and in the economy as a whole.
Only the ruins of the Manturovsky Biochemical Plant, on which modern barbarians put sawmills, are now left from the whole industry.
5. Nanotechnology
No comments.
PS The post does not give any estimates, only states the facts. It is possible that somewhere accuracy has been brought to the detriment of simplicity of presentation - I apologize.
PPS I welcome reasonable criticism, clarifications and additions to the list.