Big brother knows what you will look for

Original author: Andy Beal
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Google knows what you will be looking for all next year. Okay, of course, not everything you google is all - you still can’t predict a new scandal with a celebrity or a new social media phenomenon - but if you take, in general, average queries, you know.

In a recent article , Google says it’s working on a search trending system.

I am not a mathematician, so I was satisfied with the general result:
For each trend we are interested in, we take the point t in time, which will be removed a year ago from the current moment. We calculate the forecast for the year based on the history that has been accumulated before the point t and compare it with the real search history.

If the error does not exceed a certain threshold, then the search sequence is considered predictable .

A couple of little things!

Some research findings:
  • More than half (> 50%) of popular Google search sequences are predictable for 12 months and have an average prediction error of about 12%
  • Accordingly, less than half is unpredictable in the current model.
  • Some categories have relatively high predictability. For example, in the Health category - 74% of search queries are predictable, Food - 67% and Travel - 65%.

The graph clearly demonstrates these results.

Prediction error graph for the 10,000 most popular queries.  12 months

9 months, the error does not exceed 12%. Good result.

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