What happened in the world of finance for week # 15

    Hi Geektimes! We continue to publish reports on major events in the world of finance and the stock market. The previous issue of the information digest can be found at this link .





    Forex markets


    Last week began with the depreciation of the ruble - on March 10, the dollar exchange rate rose above 62 rubles, and the euro exceeded 66.5 rubles. The weakening of the Russian currency was due to lower oil prices - the price of Brent crude on the same day fell below $ 57 per barrel.

    By the end of the week, however, the decline slowed down - the exchange rate of the euro on Friday March 13 fell below 65 rubles. Despite the decline in oil prices (on Friday Brent at auction in London it cost less than $ 55 per barrel), support to the Russian market was provided by news about the reduction of the Central Bank's key rate to 14%.

    Also on Friday at a press conference, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina saidthat "the ruble is underestimated by 10%." Fitch rating agency announced the possibility of revising Russia's rating in April - now it is at BBB- with a negative outlook, but there are factors that "support the investment level" of the country.

    Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts decided to revise their forecast for a fall in oil prices to $ 40, as world energy demand was higher than expected, and the problems of several oil-producing countries led to a decrease in supplies.



    In addition, its forecast for oil prices has been revised.and the US Department of Energy - according to new calculations, the average annual price of the Brent brand will be $ 59.5 per barrel, and in 2016, according to American experts, oil of this brand will rise in price to $ 75 per barrel. The forecast price of WTI crude oil, by contrast, was lowered to $ 52.15 per barrel in 2015 and $ 70 / bbl. in 2016.

    Chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants in his weekly review described the situation in the oil market as follows :

    The latest data from Baker Hughes showed a renewed acceleration of the decline in the number of operating drilling rigs in the USA (and especially in Canada, where the figure shrank 2.6 times in the last year) - another -6.5% per week and -36.1% per year to a minimum of almost 4 years; The 3-month dynamics both for oil separately and for oil and gas, together (-41.5% and -37.9%) is very close to the historical record-breaking levels of 2009, 1993, 1986 and 1958. The fact is that an excess of oil (a large one - although the US Department of Energy is waiting for the shale to stagnate) has almost nowhere to store - everything is full, including tankers adapted for this purpose. Considering the tenacity of the shale producers (there were even losses at the peak of prices - because companies were in a hurry to buy everything around for all the money earned or borrowed) and the increased interest on loans to low-reliable borrowers,

    The beginning of the new week was marked by a further decrease in oil quotes amid information from the International Energy Agency (IEA) about the growth of commercial stocks in the USA. By 7.54 MSK April crude oil futures for Brent became cheaper by 0.64% to $ 54.32 per barrel. The price of April futures for WTI crude oil fell to $ 44.35 per barrel.

    Stock markets


    On Tuesday March 10, Russian stock indices fell significantly under the influence of falling oil prices - the RTS index fell by 6%, and the MICEX - by more than 3.5%. The end of the week also took place in the red zone - the MICEX index fell 2.21% to 1,627.88 points, and the RTS index fell 2.99% to 833.57 points.

    ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik in one of his reviews on Thursday March 12 commented on the dynamics of the Russian stock market as follows:

    After another Black Tuesday, the Russian stock market again showed weakness and could not even demonstrate a slight technical rebound. Lower correction targets for Russian indices are now fully open, so March and April may fail for investors. The immediate correction goals for the MICEX ruble index for the next two months are in the range of 1500-1520 and we are not reviewing them yet.




    Market Overview


    ITinvest expert Dmitry Solodin prepared a review of the economic events of the past week:



    That's all for today, thanks for watching. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

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    Images: AP, TASS

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