From AI and data science to cryptography: Microsoft researchers give 16 predictions for 2016

Original author: Microsoft News Center Staff
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Last month, Microsoft released the book “ Future Visions, ” an anthology of small stories written by some modern science fiction writers based on conversations with Microsoft researchers and visits to their labs. The electronic version of the book is available for free on Amazon and other sites.



Today we are pleased to offer you a different kind of anthology. This is a collection of predictions from 16 leaders and thinkers within our technology and research organization.

About the lapse of the year since we entered the era called Peter Lee), Microsoft Vice President of Research NExT, the new Golden Age of technological advantages, we decided that it would be useful to get an understanding of not only what awaits us next year, but also on the horizon of 10 years.

The Microsoft Research employs more than 1,000 scientists and engineers engaged in the most diverse disciplines , in collaboration with a variety of laboratories around the world , so this list may not be exhaustive, but we hope that you will be able to learn from him important information.

2016 is a kind of reporting point for the Microsoft research unit. MSR will celebrate the 25th anniversary of its founding by Nathan Myhrvold) in 1991, which, in its 21-page document sent to Bill Gates, argued that Microsoft "needs to invest in the future, more involved in research and technology."

These investments have brought significant results, both for Microsoft, and for the industry and society. Perhaps right now, when Rafael Reif , president of MIT, says that “we leave too much innovative ketchup in the bottle,” the company's investment in research is more important than ever.

Chris bishop



Managing Director, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK
Microsoft Distinguished Scientist

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


In 2016, we will see the emergence of new silicon architectures that are configured for intensive use for machine learning tasks, giving a significant increase in performance compared to the GPU.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement in Europe and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


By 2026, we will have a ubiquitous translation on a human level of quality between all European languages, so this will remove the language barrier in Europe.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will see interesting new scenarios for using the depth camera on mobile phones.

Doug burger



Director, Hardware, Devices, and Experiences at Microsoft Research NExT
@dcburger

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to the computer environment in 2016?


The key technological breakthrough could be the successful and large-scale inclusion of specialized cloud computing accelerators, which will provide huge advantages in big data processing, bioinformatics, high-performance computing and many other important verticals.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


A big change could be a partial shift from von Neumann computer systems to systems oriented toward intensive computing, which should lead to large cost savings and a reduction in data transmission delays. Such a shift will allow you to make a big breakthrough in deep personalization, for example, intelligent computer assistants who know you well and can serve you well, significantly increasing productivity at work or saving your life through highly personalized medicine.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Tunable computing (for example, FPGA ) will become an important area in data centers and will be considered on a par with other computing accelerators.

Bill buxton



Lead Researcher, Microsoft Research
@wasbuxton

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to man-machine interactions in 2016?


57 years after the appearance of the first light pen, 53 years after the first graphic tablets with a stylus, 27 years after the appearance of the first computer with a stylus and 14 years after the Tablet PC was launched at Microsoft, drawing, adding annotations and taking notes with the pen finally will be widely supported and will take their place in the complex mosaic of how we interact with digital devices.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement in man-machine interactions and what impact will this have on the personal experience of interacting with computers?


Based on the story and my inner skepticism, I would simply add 10 years to all time stamps and repeat my prediction for 2016. However, my inner optimist believes that three related changes will occur over the next 10 years: things will simply work, they will work together seamlessly and transparently, and if so, then complexity will significantly decrease and value and level of freedom will increase, allowing people to concentrate on that what is really important: the full realization of human potential.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


There will be a huge number of digital trinkets and crafts, a new phenomenon of old age planning will begin to appear, and the focus of the industry and users will shift from technology, as such, to improving human experience, creating value and unlocking potential.

Lili cheng



Emeritus Engineer and CEO, Microsoft Research NExT
@lilich

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


Assistants will be more and more involved in our online conversations, helping us to laugh in time and be more productive. This will lead to a question and make you seriously think about how we feel about computers, phones, our memory and our relationships.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


Every child going to school will learn to write code and create solutions that we use every day. This means that we can better design and manage how computers affect our lives.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


For an increasing number of children, the first job will be in a virtual rather than physical space. Over time, this will force us to rethink our view of the work and design methods of physical cities, neighborhoods and local communities.

Kate crawford



Lead Researcher, Microsoft Research
@katecrawford

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


A key breakthrough should be that each data processing training program should include a data ethics module dedicated to a deeper understanding of the impact on humanity of huge large-scale data collections and experiments (and, ideally, leading to an increase in honesty and protection against various forms of discrimination based on data).

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in the data sciences and what impact will this have on personal experiences with computers?


AI agents like XiaoIce will seem so real and play such an important and trusted role in our lives that we will require them to have the same ethical and legal restrictions that we have with doctors, lawyers, and therapists.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will begin to build in the necessary mechanisms for protecting processes within big data processing systems that affect health, space and employment management decisions.

Li Deng



Partner Research Manager, Microsoft Research NExT

What deep learning technologies should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to in 2016?


The rapid development of natural language processing based on deep learning methods will continue, a qualitative leap in the efficiency of machine translation can be achieved through sequence learning techniques with focuses used in deep learning.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in deep learning and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


Deep learning will develop or even surpass as an AI the human level in several important areas related to speech and vision, and possibly in some areas of cognitive function. Artificial intelligence technologies will be widely used by ordinary people in their daily lives.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Deep learning is starting to penetrate business solutions, including predictive analytics, which will lead to an increase in interest in deep learning technologies beyond the already existing successful areas of processing speech, images and natural language.

Jasmin fisher



Senior Researcher, Microsoft Research Cambridge, UK

What technologies in the field of health should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


One of the key changes in medicine and maintaining health in 2016 is to be expected in the use of new multidisciplinary technologies designed to improve and extend the lives of patients with complex diseases.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement in computational biology and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


In ten years, cancer will become a resolved problem thanks to interdisciplinary breakthrough approaches that allow researchers and physicians to calculate the control mechanisms of cancer, as well as understand, identify, diagnose and treat patients at an individual level. I believe that computed biology will play a key role in this enormous task.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Cloud computing will begin to realize its true potential in changing and improving the lives of patients.

Hsiao-wuen hon



Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Research Asia and Microsoft's Asia-Pacific R&D Group

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to China in 2016?


A significant increase in the use of AI with optional human participation for personal assistance services, which allows to expand the use of messaging platforms, reduce the cost of labor and increase the electronic accessibility of services and services.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in China and what impact will this have on the personal experience of working with computers for the people of China?


The mixture of atoms and bits, as HoloLens predicts , will become natural, so people can use the advanced digital technology experience in learning, shopping, traveling, and interacting with people and things.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Distributing video on the Internet will bypass TV broadcasting. In China, more people will watch the Olympics via the web than through TV. Video analysis technologies, such as those offered by Project Oxford , will accelerate the development of intelligent video processing in the cloud.

Eric Horvitz



Technical Council Member and Managing Director, Microsoft Research Redmond Lab
@erichorvitz

What technologies in the field of AI should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to 2016?


A visible breakthrough in computational intelligence will be a flexible, multi-step conversational dialogue with the machine, which will be noticeably more natural and competent than the speech interaction that we have with computers and phones today.

Considering the 10-year horizon to 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in AI and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


Although AI capabilities will make a significant contribution in areas such as transportation, healthcare and self-employment, I believe that the most significant application of AI will be found in the sciences, where smart systems will radically change scientific research and allow for significant breakthroughs in areas such as energy, biology and medicine.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Personal assistants will become more useful by understanding such important things in people's lives as their work tasks and the promises they make to other people.

Lucas joppa



Conservation Researcher, Microsoft Research
@lucasjoppa

What technologies in conservation science should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to in 2016?


Low-cost, long-range sensors that consume little energy will make possible an exponential increase in environmental observations and provide the basis for parallel access to planet information.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in conservation science and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


By 2026, computing technology will become ubiquitous in natural environments, providing a digital cut of the state of nature, which will constantly monitor the pulse of life on the planet.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ... The world realizes the potential of technology in preventing the 6th mass extermination and changing the way we observe, model and manage life on earth.

Brian LaMacchia



Director, Security & Cryptography, Microsoft Research

What technologies in cryptography should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to in 2016?


A key technological breakthrough in cryptography in 2016 will be the demonstration of a fully encrypted TLS connection using quantum-robust public key algorithms for both key exchanges (for privacy) and digital signatures (for authentication). The upcoming appearance of reasonable-sized quantum computers in the next 15 years will make it necessary to migrate all existing cryptosystems on public keys to new quantum-stable algorithms and quantum-stable TLS (used in all https connections) - this is the first step.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in cryptography and what impact will this have on the personal experience of interacting with computers?


I hope that by 2026 we will introduce new quantum-resistant cryptosystems with public keys in all our used security flaws and we will confidently follow the path of closing a few quantum-vulnerable systems. Ideally, if we do everything right, migration will make all of our communications secure with respect to attacks using quantum computers, although otherwise it will not play a role in relation to everyday experience with computers.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Ongoing innovations in quantum computing will lead to increased attention to the threats they pose to existing public-key cryptosystems - this is the cryptography that underlies electronic commerce and secure communications on the Internet. The security community will begin planning migration to new “quantum-stable” systems with public keys, for which quantum computers will not provide computational advantages.

Preston mcafee



Chief Economist, Microsoft

What technologies in the economy should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


Economists are trying to understand why the current recovery [of the economy] does not lead to a noticeable increase in productivity compared to previous periods, perhaps low productivity is a new norm. I think that this riddle will be solved in 2016, and the answer may have important consequences for public policy aimed at accelerating growth. Of course, it may turn out that the problem is in the measurement errors and we are growing normally.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be a key breakthrough in the economy?


In the next ten years, the biggest breakthrough in the economy will happen in the application of market design techniques, which will improve market efficiency through the use of a combination of game theory, economics and algorithm design. We have already seen their successful use in search auctions, frequency auctions, kidney exchange and school assignment.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Silicon Valley admits that Uber's value in his store, not data, but perhaps this is too optimistic. The big data bubble will continue to exist.

Sriram rajamani



Assistant Managing Director, Microsoft Research India

What security technologies should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to in 2016?


We will see the emergence of a new generation of system solutions that guarantee security even if the operating system or other infrastructure becomes compromised by hackers.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in security and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


The game of cat and mouse between hackers and system manufacturers will continue. The stakes will rise high enough for security and privacy to become a hallmark selling a cloud platform or device. This will lead to breakthrough solutions across all layers of the system stack, including (1) the level of applications in terms of machine learning techniques that preserve privacy and cleanliness, (2) a system architecture that guarantees the isolation of user data and defines intrusions and compromised use through machine learning, and (3) new hardware capabilities and new cryptography, making similar system architectures possible.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


A new generation of security solutions built on trusted hardware (such as Intel SGX and hardware solutions with similar capabilities from other manufacturers) will begin to penetrate the market, I have our ideas about security.

Krysta svore



Senior Researcher, Microsoft Research NExT
@krystasvore

What technologies in quantum computing should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to 2016?


Confirmation and demonstration of a topological qubit will be a key breakthrough in quantum computing next year.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in quantum computing and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


In 2026, it seems to me that we can connect to a quantum computer through the cloud to find solutions to problems that we cannot solve with modern classical computers, in particular the simulation of physical systems for chemistry and materials science. Imagine that we can produce artificial fertilizers more efficiently or remove carbon waste from the air.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will see the development and development of new, suitable for the real use of quantum algorithms programmed in systems like LIQUi |> (Language-Integrated Quantum Operations). More people will become quantum mechanics!

Chandu thekkath



Managing Director, Microsoft Research India

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or significant contribution to India in 2016?


Cheap access to technologies like free TV frequencies and affordable mobile devices will make the Internet more common in India.

Looking at the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in India and what impact will this have on personal experiences with computers?


Each resident of India will have a mobile device and a sufficient network channel that will allow full use of mobility and provided access to technologies that are difficult for us even to imagine today.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Connections in rural areas begin to penetrate in India and a significant part of the population is connected to the network.

Jeannette wing



Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Research

What technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution to in 2016?


Two answers:
Scientific breakthrough : > László Babai will publish his proof that the problem of graph isomorphism can be reduced from almost-exponential to almost-polynomial time, which will revive research in algorithms and theory of problem complexity.

Information technology breakthrough : we will see a greater number of sensors and devices that monitor metabolism, which will allow people to monitor their health and well-being (and not just the heart rate).

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will become a key technological achievement and what impact will this have on personal experience interacting with computers?


We can program a living cell.

How do you complete the following proposal: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Presidential candidates (USA) will discuss the role of secure communications in conflicts between the state’s needs to protect national security and the needs of companies to protect data privacy and people's identities.

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