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Who, when and how is going to fly to Mars

Mars · mars one · inspiration mars · spacex · Elon Musk · Curiosity · Robert Zubrin · mars direct · mars society

Who, when and how is going to fly to Mars

    Now they say so often about flights to Mars that people sometimes confuse several independent projects. Sometimes you hear that Mars One is a NASA project, and Inspiration Mars is going to mine the gold that Curiosity found. All this, of course, is fiction. Therefore, I will try to put all Martian dreams on the shelves so that there is a universal cheat sheet for all occasions.
    I will make a reservation in advance: this review reflects the current situation. I do not exclude future evolution and possible unification of the described projects or the emergence of new ones.



    So, let's proceed in chronological order:

    Mars direct


    Cost : $ 30 billion.
    Idea : Sending an expedition to Mars in two stages: first, an unmanned rocket flies, which is supposed to return people from Mars. It has a supply of hydrogen, and the fuel for the return journey must be created by itself using local carbon from the atmosphere. The second lander with pilots, provides flight to Mars and life on the surface.
    Implementation : within 10 years of the approval of the program.



    The first non-governmental project for a manned flight to Mars was the American Mars Direct, which was proposed by former Locheed Martin engineer Robert Zubrin in the 90s.

    This project is very detailed in the technical part, and is designed to be implemented on the basis of the current technical level of civilization. Although it has several “narrow” points, they are, in principle, solvable if we apply science and ingenuity.
    I will not describe it in detail, and all the details can be found in this film, translated by the habrapuser paulpotseluev , and approved by Robert (he speaks a little Russian).


    English original .

    From myself, I note some of the characteristic features of Mars Direct. Despite the non-statehood of the project, Robert Zubrin expects that it can be realized only through the efforts of national space agencies. To lobby and inspire Mars for potential U.S. voters, the Mars Society has been created.

    Zubrin almost did it when the Bush administration announced the launch of an ambitious Constellation program. The program included the development of a new interplanetary spacecraft, the construction of a base on the moon and the flight of Mars. Unfortunately, due to the exorbitant high cost of Constellation and the budget crisis in the United States, the program was canceled. All that remained of it was the Orion ship, the SLS rocket, and some props for shooting parody clips:



    Realizing that the United States alone could not pull Mars Direct, Robert Zubrin reoriented the idea to implementation by the entire world community. For these purposes, the international branches of the Martian community are opening. He himself had recently come to Russia, lectured , talked about the project, and his "with our brains to do it together " made his way to goosebumps. However, he left with virtually nothing , although he laid the foundations for the future creation of the Russian branch of the Martian community.

    Despite the prospects of the project (this is one of the most robust and well-developed on today's list), Mars Direct makes me feel old-fashioned, I feel the approach of the 90s: hope for the state / va; multi-page, albeit talented, inspirational books; the lack of crowdfunding and crowdsourcing opportunities that the Internet provides today. In general, the project was born at the dawn of the Internet and practically does not provide for the implementation of its many resources. Against the backdrop of a series of projects of recent years, Zubrin looks like a powerful dinosaur, which, although it is not going to die out, and radiates powerful energy, but it is felt that its era has passed.

    Mars one


    Cost : $ 6 billion dollars.
    Idea : One-way non-governmental expedition, as one-way flight reduces the cost of the entire program. Funding is supposed to be through the organization of a reality show on Mars and the sale of broadcasting rights to television channels. In addition: sponsorship, advertising, crowdfunding.
    Implementation : 2024 (a possible transfer to 2026 was mentioned)

    image

    The next initiative is Mars One. This is probably the most sensational, recently, a project that has steadily attracted media interest. This is not surprising, because its initiator, Dutchman Bas Lansdorp, is a PR man, and now, almost all of Mars One’s activity is PR. Yes, and it is supposed to pay off due to media.
    Probably everyone who heard at least a little interest in the topic of space and Mars has heard about Mars One. His reviews more than once appeared both on Habré , and in mass media.

    Mars One attracts many with its romance, potential accessibility for everyone, the idea of ​​heroic death in the name of the progress of all mankind and, as a result, unfading glory ... We can say that if Mars Direct is a project of professionals, then Mars One is a project of enthusiasts. Mars One causes the largest number of critical reviews from astronautics. Professionals generally do not take him seriously. The main complaints can be read on the blog.the editor of the journal "Cosmonautics News" Alexander Ilyin. A separate complaint that is often made regarding Mars One is the suspicion that this is a banal scam.

    The project, and its coverage, really resembles the Joint-Stock Company of Giant Plants, but personally I trust Bass. It is enough to look into his fanatical eyes to understand that he was blown away on the idea of ​​flying to Mars, and this whole project was organized with only one goal - to fly there himself.

    I plan to write my own opinion separately about Mars One. Now, I’ll just say that I support the project, despite its obvious utopianism.

    Elon Mask Colony


    Cost : $ 40 billion.
    The idea : the creation of a huge alien colony of tens of thousands of people who independently paid the cost of flight and accommodation on Mars. To achieve this goal, the cost of launching cargo into low Earth orbit is reduced, and powerful interplanetary spacecraft are created.
    Implementation : in the coming decades.



    The most incredible project for the exploration of Mars has not even been named yet, it has not even been worked out at the Mars One level, and is known only from an interview with its ideologist and initiator businessman Elon Musk. Paradoxical as it may seem, on the path to implementing this project, the greatest path of all the ideas considered has been covered.

    It began with the fact that the suddenly wealthy creator of Pay Pal decided to inspire humanity to further explore the cosmos and, above all, Mars. It is curious that his first idea was blooming apple trees on Mars!
    Okay, I embellished it about apple trees, but he seriously considered launching a flask on Mars with a plant and its life support system, only to show the world the first flower grown under the Martian sun. He suggested launching the flask with the Dnieper Russian-Ukrainian conversion missile. Then he wondered why our missiles are so cheap, and American so expensive. From the conclusions, the space company SpaceX was born. In general, this is an example of how a half-crazy idea can grow, if not a flower on Mars, then the coolest startup with a billion-dollar package of contracts.

    On the wave of SpaceX success, Elon Musk outlined his thoughts on the future of the Martian city (!). Yes, he is not exchanged for trifles, four colonists are not his level, so he is considering a settlement project of 80 thousand people. The cost of one ticket is declared at $ 500 thousand dollars.

    True, his assessment of the cost of such a gigantic settlement (and the delivery of people there) casts doubt on its adequacy. However, looking at his perseverance and obvious successes in the implementation of his plan, I would like to say: “Go on, Elon, I already put it off for a ticket.”

    Even if skeptics believe that Musk is just fantasizing about Mars, you cannot take away the incredible talent with which he managed to motivate employees at his enterprise. Just look at the careers page :



    People at his plant are not just building a rocket , but paving the way to Mars.

    Inspiration mars


    Cost : $ 3 billion.
    Idea : Flight of a manned spacecraft to approach Mars along a flight path without landing, and return to Earth. The flight duration is 501 days.
    Implementation : 2018



    Dennis Tito is an old man in commercial space exploration (and he is not young by himself). He became famous as the first space tourist when he flew in 2001 at the age of 60. On Earth, he is a multimillionaire and a major investor.

    In early 2013, he unveiledhis proposal, to inspire the American nation to new achievements in space: Inspiration Mars (Inspiration by Mars). The spacecraft, with two pilots, must fly in a heliocentric orbit, where the trajectory on one side crosses the low Earth orbit, and on the other, passes 160 km beyond Mars. That is, travelers will fly over the night side of the Red Planet, and during the approach and removal they will be able to observe its phases:



    This is the simplest, cheapest and most implemented program of the listed ( description , justification ). True and the most boring. Useful for science only in assessing the state of the human body under the long influence of weightlessness and cosmic radiation.

    The funny thing is that Inspiration Mars has already become part of conspiracy theological mythology. It seemed to someone with a rich imagination and lack of basic knowledge that this project appeared after the Curiosity rover found gold on Mars. The absurdity of this idea is obvious: he did not find gold; the cost of any pinch of Martian soil is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of earthly gold, but even if Curiosity had found a turbine pyramid, the Inspiration Mars would not have helped either the United States or humanity. We can also look from above from satellites, and the pilots of the “Inspiration” will not be able to sit. However, this idea found supporters on both sides of the ocean.

    Despite the obvious simplicity of Inspiration Mars, there are several serious obstacles to its implementation: you need to start the device either in 2018, or in 2031 (or later). The start is scheduled for 2018, but so far there is no ship, no rocket, no money. Recently, the reason why Tito has not announced a fundraiser since February and no movement is heard at all has been recently announced. The businessman’s calculation was for NASA to take the project under its wing and take up implementation. No approval has yet been received from the space agency. The reason is obvious: one of the main principles of NASA is crew safety, and this mission needs people who are ready for the role of experimental kamikaze rabbits. However, Tito found such, but NASA is not ready to take responsibility for their death.

    In theory, such an expedition can be organized by Roscosmos, but Tito needs to inspire the American nation, and Roscosmos needs nothing at all ...

    NASA


    Cost : Not determined, but much more than Mars Direct.
    The idea : to carry out a series of flights to Mars. First, without landing, with access to orbit and remote control of robots on the surface. Perhaps landing on Phobos. Then landing on Mars and return.
    Implementation : 2030s ... Probably.



    As already mentioned, the Constellation project was closed without offering anything in return on Mars except Curiosity and MSL-2020 rovers. However, Obama has repeatedly announced plans for the United States to send people to the orbit of Mars, and then to the surface. First, the date was called the year 2030, then the year 2030. The current head of NASA, Charles Bolden, is a fan of Mars himself, but he can’t jump above his head, Congress allocates budgetary money, and there is a very "lunar" lobby. In general, NASA, like Roscosmos, is now experiencing a crisis of self-determination: everyone understands that it is high time to step further on the ISS, but everyone is scared and unclear what to do there.

    In the summer of 2013, NASA published a list of astronauts who are promised expeditions “to orbit, an asteroid, and Mars” ( low-Earth orbit, an asteroid and Mars) In fact, this is just a list of candidates for the crew of the future Orion spacecraft, and no one knows where it will fly. But trolling the media and the public was a success. The NASA list was published a month after the start of accepting applications for the Mars One project, so some thought that these astronauts would fly to Mars one way with Bas Lansdorp, which, of course, is not true. And, I'm afraid that by the time NASA is seriously going to Mars, this group will be a bit old.

    I think the best we can hope for from NASA is flying in Tito’s orbit in 2031.

    Russia


    Cost : ten olympiards of rubles.
    Idea : astronauts and dreamers claim that apple trees will bloom on Mars.
    Implementation : God will give by 2050. A



    curious situation unfolds in our home. Russia has no project of flight to Mars. Moreover, no one even tries to offer something serious (at least I did not hear anything). At the same time, we are developing and conducting biological experiments, which, in the future, will come in handy precisely on a manned expedition to Mars.

    If NASA is seriously moving forward in technology: the Orion interplanetary spacecraft and the SLS rocket, ours have an advantage in experiments on people. It sounds dissonant, but it is precisely our astronauts who have worked on the World and the ISS in modes that NASA simply would not allow for their people.
    In addition to record periods of work in orbit, the famous experiment Mars-500 was conducted in Russia. Recently, they conducted another interesting little experiment: the astronauts, immediately after landing with the ISS, imitated the work in spacesuits on Mars after landing.

    In some ways, Russia bypasses the hardware as well. For Mars-500, for example, they created a real Orlan-E spacesuit. Seriously, only now we already have a spacesuit to exit to the surface of Mars (however, any spacesuit suitable for going into space is suitable for this).



    Research Center Keldysh is developing a megawatt-class space nuclear reactor for an electric rocket propulsion system, they say they have already completed the preliminary design (of course, they show nothing). And in Lytkarino they are going to build a test bench “for the study of thrust and controllability of ram engines, as well as fuel consumption and aerodynamics. In addition, “unsteady conditions”, in particular, “engine behavior in the Martian atmosphere,” will be simulated during the tests.

    The new head of Roscosmos also seems to be a “Martian”. About a super rocket, I ’ve started talking . But we have a lot to talk about, let's look at business.

    In general, in Russia there is an interesting activity here, but in the absence of a unified strategy as a whole - a standing swamp. Fly to the ISS? Everything works? So don’t touch it.

    Here is such a picture in the world today: there are a lot of ideas, they talk about Mars much more than, say, five years ago, but no specifics, and in the courtyard the 21st century has already exchanged a dozen.

    What to do?


    Everyone who has the desire and ability can go to work in space or related industries, develop science and technology, bringing the future closer. In Russia, there is currently a shortage of personnel in the industry, and the example of Elon Musk shows that it is not necessary to be a space engineer to aspire to space. One might think of private astronautics, but the example of the “ Selena rover ” is not inspiring.

    On the other hand, we are the public. In accordance with the theory of social contract, we can form our order to the state. Of course, the theory is far from the objective reality, the more Russian, but a chance to be heard there . You can start with a simple letter to Roskosmos or higher. This is if there is a desire to see on Mars an astronaut, not an astronaut.

    To promote the ideas of the international exploration of Mars, it is planned to create a Russian branch of the Martian community . Actually, 2.5 people are doing this now, and while there is an embryo, so any help will not hurt (If you want to help, contact Cholgaa ).

    A penny can help Mars One right now .

    If there are any other ideas, let's discuss.

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