Where is the electronic payment systems market in Russia going? Part 2. Plastic cards

In the last article, we talked about where the market for electronic payments is going, or rather even falling . But the topic turned out to be much broader, and therefore today I would like to appeal to it again. More precisely, to those payments that were left overboard: to payment by bank cards.

As you know, Russia always has its own, special and often very complex path of development. And the field of electronic money and even more broadly - electronic payments - is no exception, but rather one of the best examples of this.



After all, when a person wants to enter e-commerce, one way or another he asks the question: “ what do they pay on the network ?”. We and all those who are interested in the e-commerce market have repeatedly asked this question.. The answer to this question is not so simple:

1. Firstly, payment in large and even medium-sized online stores and small stores is far from the same thing. And this is the peculiarity of many CIS countries, Russia - first of all.
2. Secondly, “regionality” can also be traced very clearly: if federal stores work with all types of payments (from terminals and cash to mobile payments), then small regional showcases, on the contrary, can choose those methods that are closest to them. And, often, many do not understand why they need more. It’s enough to say that many stores have 2 payment methods: “cashless” and manual transfer to one of the wallets (Qiwi, YaMoney, Z-Payment, VM, etc.)
3. Many companies in Russia hide real numbers . And there are many reasons for this: starting from fierce competition and ending with “optimization of taxation”.

There are, of course, more reasons, but those described are more than enough to understand the complexity of an objective market assessment. The main thing that is worth emphasizing is that many of the trends in the Western market (namely, we have to rely on it to orient ourselves) do not justify themselves in Russia or, at least, do not fully justify themselves.

Let's take the most “simple” and obvious example - checks and bank cards. In Russia, unlike the same States or countries of Western Europe, there was virtually no payment period for checks (excluding the minimum percentage of using those in banks, for example, when making a paycheck). We immediately switched to "plastic". For online sales, of course, checks are archaism, but the question here is that the end user missed a whole layer of payments. If you add the features of mentality, historical and economic development, you can get a very strange and eclectic mix of innovations and a late way of thinking on the part of the consumer.

But, as studies show, the card is just becoming a means of payment, since the majority, receiving the so-called “salary”, go to the ATM and receive cash, leaving only the amount for food and other small purchases on the card.

You can look at the map structure that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself offers (and only stars above it in Russia)

Chart. 1. The structure of bank cards in the Russian Federation



It is not difficult to notice that payment cards more than prevail. At the same time, credit cards, the boom of which occurred just in 2012, are negligible. But it is credit, no matter how negatively we react to it, that is the basis of any economy based on market relations.

At the same time, in quantitative terms, the growth of cards is obvious: let's look again at the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Chart 2. Number of bank cards in the Russian Federation 2008-2012.



It is worth noting here that the Federal Law “On the National Payment System”, which recently entered into full force, enslaved the lion's share of market participants, including such giants as YandexMoney (which, by surprise! They were sold by the Security Council of the Russian Federation), VM, Qiwi, etc. on the other hand, the two largest international players - Visa and MasterCard (especially the last one) took up the successor of the USSR in earnest: Visa made a branded wallet with Qiwi, Yandex issued MasterCard in cooperation with TCS, and even more often they began to flick up Corn, SvyaznoyBank "and so on. d.

and at the Sun m at this picture from the beginning of the 2000s, when the Internet market revived, has not changed much.

Chart 3. What they pay on the network



(For more details, see here ).

The picture in 2008-2010 looked something like this. Has something changed in 2-3 years? Not. In 2012, as a result, we have only slightly increased percentages, but the relative distribution is approximately the same. The only thing is that the share of SMS payments due to the promoted, but very expensive “Mobile Payment”, has slightly increased.
Moreover, in small shops the share of cash as it was and remains at the level of 95-97%.
Why are people afraid to pay with cards? Only a few reasons can be noted:

1. They are afraid of fraud and theft of money from the card;
2. Do not possess the necessary knowledge (and do not want to get it);
3. It is impossible to pay the first time for any reason, and the second - they already doubt whether it is necessary;
4. Payment of excess interest.

Again, when writing an article, we were faced with the fact that there are too many reasons and they are very different, but their essence boils down to one, but important point: the consumer is still not 100% ready for shopping on the Web. Why? Firstly, there is no proper information field. Exactly so: if on Habr, for example, they are assembled according to the principle “understands (not bad / good / excellent) something from IT ...”, then in most cases everything is much more deplorable. This is especially true for people of the so-called older generation.

On the other hand, today there is a core of customers who are willing to pay more, but under certain conditions:

1. improving the quality of service in general ( 40%) ;
2. simplicity and access to information before making a purchase ( 35% );
3. ease of returning goods ( 32% );
4. the convenience of an online search and site ( 21% );
5. more personalized service ( 21% ).

Source (the total number is more than 100, because the respondents had multiple choices ).

In addition, there is another niche where more and more people pay with cards - these are social networks. Here is, for example, how the distribution for 2012 looks like.

Figure 4. Different types of payments in social services. networks



That is, there are certainly prospects for development. But, you need to understand that today cards have received a serious competitor - mobile payments, which are certainly very expensive and extremely doubtful for large purchases, but nevertheless their volume is already approaching millions of dollars. Moreover, various symbioses can already be observed today: mobile payment (for example, in the RU-RU system) by issuing a virtual card, linking the card to a phone number (the so-called “mobile banking” or “SMS banking”), etc. forget about contactless payments, which are just emerging in the Russian market.

However, it’s not worth it to deceive yourself: for at least one simple reason, you need to look at the numbers. In particular, this is what the 2010 mobile payment audience looks like .(In 2012, the picture has changed, but not by many - we will talk about this in the next article).

Chart 5. Correlation between the growth of “classic” and mobile Internet in the Russian Federation



Another factor that will greatly affect the growth of “plastic” payments is the entry of foreign players into the market (primarily E-Bay and PayPal). Moreover, in connection with the same Federal Law “On National ....” Russian Post has become another major player who has already started issuing “free” postal cards in cooperation with Russian Standard Bank, and he, as the bank knows primarily loans.

Finally, online lending will be another area that will give a powerful impetus to the growth of “plastic” and which has positively established itself in 2012.

And yet, even a study conducted by VISA shows that “about 46% of respondents only viewed goods on the Internet, but made a purchase in an ordinary store ...”, and this is direct evidence of the unpreparedness of the market. True, there are positive trends: “as the study showed, 87% of the Internet users in the survey in Russia at least once tried to shop online. In 2012, their number increased by 30% compared to the previous 2011, when only 57% of the respondents made online payments. ”

The problem also lies in the fact that about 45-70% of payments made on the Internet fall into the category “Paying bills”: this is, first and foremost, replenishing the balance of mobile, utilities, prepayments for tickets, etc. Simply put, while people are paying small amounts for what they don’t want to do in the operator’s office, Sberbank’s lines, etc.

Here, for example, is the “spread” between the money being entered and those that pay for goods / services according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2008.

Graph 6. Correlation of input and output operations, 2008.



But this is the same ratio, but in 2011

Chart 7. Correlation of input and output operations, 2011



On the other hand, the volume itself (and it, as we said in the previous article, depends primarily on the influx of new Internet users), of course, is growing:

Chart 8. Volume of payments for 2008-2011.



And in general, such an increase is due to a general increase in card payments:

Chart 9. The volume of card payments for 2008-2011.



But, of course, we must not forget about the "classical" way of withdrawing funds from the card - withdrawing cash.

Chart 10. Volume of cash withdrawal operations for 2008-2011



To assess the full significance of these figures, we present a comparative diagram of operations (blue - output, red - input):

Chart 11. Correlation of payment and withdrawal operations for 2011



That is, if we take relative indicators, say, with the same 2008 (that is, the year of the crisis, then there is no obvious and large increase):

Chart 12. Correlation of payment and withdrawal operations for 2008.



Another “Paradox” (or trend?) In the Russian Federation can be called the fact that:

1. there is a complete monopolization of the market, because “small” players are being removed from the road, while large ones are increasingly seizing the vacant space. The most striking of the latest examples is MTS Bank.
2. In connection with the first regularity, the second one also arises, when there are fewer banks issuing cards than those that provide acquiring (and even Intranet-acquiring is even more so).

Let's turn back to the charts.

For example, the number of credit organizations in the Russian Federation from 2008 to 2012.

To more clearly show how this drop affects emissions and acquiring, we turn to the following chart:

Chart 13. Number of credit organizations in the Russian Federation



That is, if we take attention error, the dependence is actually linear. Which is logical. Another issue is that the lack of competition in the market is always, sooner or later (and sometimes too late) without a clear planned economy - a crisis. But our article is not intended to solve economic problems. We just want to point out how the market is alive today and what it can lead to in the near and medium term.

It is thanks to the gradual “enlargement” that the percentage of the main players in the card issue / acquiring market is growing.

Figure 14. Number of organizations issuing / acquiring in the Russian Federation, 2012.



But in the end, you need to understand that these are just numbers. Since in practice it is important who exactly provides the same acquiring. And here everything is not so good (rather, quite the contrary).

Chart 15. Number of organizations engaged in acquiring in 2012



In order to fully understand the full value of this paradox (which banks can “easily” explain with a variety of factors, ranging from a complex certification procedure to regional features, etc.), consider the following numbers:

Figure 16. The difference between card issuance and acquiring in 2008 2012 years



And to the schedule has become more clear and understandable cite figures:



Ie If in 2008 of the total number of all credit organizations was approx. 96% of those who were issuing cards and approx. 89%, cat. Engaged in acquiring, in 2012 this ratio was 99.09% and 90.43, respectively. Those. The gap from 7.27% grew to 8.66%, that is, nobody removes the dissonance, on the contrary, it is made more and more tangible, because the more “competitive” win.

This is what it looks like (blue - emission, red - acquiring):

Figure 17. Correlation between emission and acquiring, 2008

Summary

At the end of the article, I would like to highlight a number of obvious trends that are characteristic of our market today: some of them we saw on the charts above, part - accompany these and will be covered in more detail in the following articles:

1) The number of credit institutions is reduced , the number of Internet payments, including credit cards, on the contrary, is growing, that is, there is a clear monopolization of the sphere for the sake of a clear economic benefit - profit;
2) The competition in the market is more likely to be internal , between large players, while regional organizations and others, smaller ones, remain aloof from the market and, at best, can count on an infusion into one or another payment system;
3) Despite the propaganda of the National Payment System, the market is still conquering Visa and Mastercard (a small percentage, American Express - see the next article for more details). But the bottom line is that in no study there is even a hint of the appearance of their own analogue Visa and Mastercard. The situation is paradoxical: the market is monopolized, but at the same time, it is clearly not “Russified”. A reasonable question arises, but is it beneficial to the end user ? After all, the commission that he (or the seller) pays is nothing but the commissions of banks + payment systems ?;
4) The market in Russia is still the cash market. Yes, the cards have won their niche and continue to conquer new peaks, but so far, for the rapid growth that we have been hearing about for about 5-7 years, there is no main bridgehead — proper technical and information equipment from the governing structures;
5) The Russian market is at the stage of a clear rise, but what is it provided for? Only quantitative indicators, more precisely - for the most part by them. Qualitative (improving services, introducing new technologies, etc.) is much less.
6) Mobile payments and cards in the Russian Federationbegin to unite. Sometimes this translates into something worthwhile. In any case, the growth of mobile gadgets, the development of contactless payment technologies and "mobile" wallets and banks - all this will lead to another distribution of profits between players that already exist in the market. And it is unlikely that in the near future a positive impact on the "pocket" of the consumer. In the next article we will dwell on this in detail, but for now - you can just look at the tariffs of operators.
7) It seems that the most important conclusion from all the statistics collected is the presence of one single trend, which, in fact, determines all the others: the creation of a strictly unified, tightly regulated marketwhose activities will be subordinated to one state governing structure. After all, how are banks different from any other organization? Correctly, with a clear regulation of actions prescribed by the RFM, the Central Bank and others like them. Is this good for us? The answer, I think, lies somewhere in the field of p2p technologies, and, perhaps, somewhere quite outside the legal field of the Russian Federation.