January 15, 2010 at 11:58CES: Reader boom? Rather, boom
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Yes, indeed, the current Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas will be filled with readers. Consumers are eager for Kindle and similar devices for reading books. This spurred a lot of companies to develop their own readers.
Yes, indeed, CES issued a forecast on Tuesday that the global supply of readers will double in 2010, and will double again by 2012. And by 2014, the market of readers will reach 16 million, or, roughly speaking, will increase by 8 times compared to 2009 of the year.
But wait a moment! Let's figure it out. A market of 16 million devices? Compare it to the handheld device market of 1.1 billion devices. It will be a market that is less than 2% of the mobile phone market. Or suppose each of the 16 million devices will be sold for $ 200, which is about $ 3 billion. This, of course, is not a trifle, but in general for the consumer electronics industry as a mosquito bite. Oh yes, we have not taken into account the cost of the content here, but that’s not the point. The bottom line is that even if the CEA forecast is at least somewhat plausible, not many will be able to profit from the creation of reading devices.
And a couple more nuances. First: there are already a lot of prototypes and models, some readers are out of date even before the sale. And the second: in any case, all the rules on the market can be rewritten when Apple announces its tablet at the end of this month.
Yes, indeed, CES issued a forecast on Tuesday that the global supply of readers will double in 2010, and will double again by 2012. And by 2014, the market of readers will reach 16 million, or, roughly speaking, will increase by 8 times compared to 2009 of the year.
But wait a moment! Let's figure it out. A market of 16 million devices? Compare it to the handheld device market of 1.1 billion devices. It will be a market that is less than 2% of the mobile phone market. Or suppose each of the 16 million devices will be sold for $ 200, which is about $ 3 billion. This, of course, is not a trifle, but in general for the consumer electronics industry as a mosquito bite. Oh yes, we have not taken into account the cost of the content here, but that’s not the point. The bottom line is that even if the CEA forecast is at least somewhat plausible, not many will be able to profit from the creation of reading devices.
And a couple more nuances. First: there are already a lot of prototypes and models, some readers are out of date even before the sale. And the second: in any case, all the rules on the market can be rewritten when Apple announces its tablet at the end of this month.