Russian drone market expects significant growth in 2016

Today we will talk about the drones-drones market, touch upon trends, and outline the general specifics of the Russian consumer UAV market. Recently, truly tectonic movements have been taking place on it. This is due both to the general situation in the consumer market, and to the simultaneous sharp increase in the attention of consumers and authorities specifically to this category of gadgets. Drones regularly become heroes of news and reviews - as seriousso comedic. And the trend of growing popularity of flying drones is likely to be relevant throughout 2016. Even despite the economic crisis. Among drone users, there are fewer professionals - those who earn their living by aerial and video filming, diagnostics of high-altitude objects and so on. And more and more ordinary ordinary buyers who purchase inexpensive copters solely for the sake of entertainment.

Some especially “visionary” entrepreneurs of the entertainment industry have already realized this trend and realized that the fashion for collective games with copters is a new growth vector for their industry, the entertainment industry. Entertainment drones are increasingly being purchased for use in attractions, teambuilding and the event industry, for decoration of entertainment areas of shopping malls, for educational purposes. In other words, it is entertainment rather than professional functionality that is becoming more and more popular in unmanned aerial vehicles.


A professional drone can cost tens of thousands of dollars.

Today's drones can be divided into several types - based on their design, as well as capabilities and scope. Drones are primarily classified by the number of screws: monocopter (one screw), quadrocopter (four), hexacopter (six), octopter (eight).

The second option for dividing drones into classes is by scope. There are specialized machines that are created specifically for the customer, for his specific narrow tasks. For example, drones for military and rescue workers. Such machines can cost millions or even tens of millions of rubles. Sales of such machines are growing, but their total share in unit terms does not exceed 3% of the market. And the growth dynamics are significantly weaker than that of other categories of drones.

If we talk about mass-produced and mass-produced drones with universal functionality, then among them there are semi-professional models with the maximum set of modern technologies and an average price tag in the region of $ 1000- $ 3000 - like products of the Chinese DJI corporation. They can be used to solve problems such as aerial photography, monitoring sporting events, reportage video shooting, etc.

There are also “semi-professional” drones with some trimmed (compared to the professional segment) functionality and an average price of about 25-40 thousand rubles. For example, models of the French company Parrot.

Finally, there are very simple, amateur drones at a cost of 2 to 10 thousand rubles. These are more likely toys than tools for solving some professional tasks. These models are mainly for entertainment purposes. Budget models of popular Syma or Hubsan brands are sometimes even more affordable than toy radio-controlled helicopters, although they offer more interesting functionality - the possibility of aerial video shooting and performing various tricks (somersaults, etc.).


It all started with home-made quadrocopters ...

A few years ago (before the drone market was made into a separate product category of mass-produced and mass-produced gadgets), the practically only chance to get an unmanned aerial vehicle at its disposal was to assemble it yourself, or order an assembly from professionals. Of course, it was impossible to call this a market in the full sense of the word - rather, a hobby for single lovers or high-class professionals such as cameramen. But around 2012, there was a turning point - large manufacturers of radio-controlled models from China and the United States drew attention to drones. In addition, companies that previously engaged in professional narrow-purpose UAVs, such as Byrobot, began to enter the consumer segment.

There is no exact data on the volume of the Russian drone market yet - for the reason that this market is still relatively small, and analytical agencies are in no hurry to “calculate” it. In addition, the calculation is complicated by the fact that a large federal retail chain, for the most part, does not sell drones so far - at best, such devices are offered in a very narrow assortment (2-3 models) somewhere on distant shelves (or only on the site). But most often there are no drones in the assortment of large stores at all. Traders mostly online stores and specialized outlets. In general, the data below is more likely to be estimates and assessments of market participants, their opinion, rather than absolutely accurate, verified and double-checked analytical statistics.

In 2014, the volume of the Russian drone market amounted, according to various estimates, from 20 to 40 thousand units, in monetary terms this is 400-500 million rubles. In 2015, despite the economic crisis and the stagnation of almost all segments of the portable electronics market, the drone segment in Russia continued to grow. And right at a record pace - somewhere 3-5 times: up to 120-200 thousand in pieces and from 800 million to 1 billion 300 million rubles in money.

It can be stated that 2015 was an explosive year for the Russian UAV market, since drones for the first time turned into a “mass consumer goods”. The reasons for such a sharp increase in demand are simple: if in 2014 the market consisted mainly of professional and semi-professional devices with an average price of 25-30 thousand rubles, then in 2015 the average price of an acquired drone fell to 7-10 thousand rubles. Cheap and easy to control drones appeared on sale. The last point is especially important, since last year it was precisely the control features of the drones that prevented the popularization of drones - inexpensive (and sometimes even quite expensive, around 25-30 thousand rubles) drones did not fly well and required long-term training and special piloting skills.

In 2015, many new brands appeared on the market that focus on budget devices.


Quadrocopter of the Russian umbrella brand DEXP

At the same time, it is important to note that, unlike the situation with readers and the same tablets, Russian local umbrella brands (all kinds of Texet, Explay, Prestigio) so far practically do not show themselves on the drone market. Of all the "umbrellas", except that the Vladivostok DEXP (affiliated with the DNS trading network) presented its drones - a couple of models ( expensive and cheap) And even then in the form of an experiment, without putting much effort into promotion. This is due to the crisis - umbrella brands do not seek to discover and open new product categories, but only try to preserve the old "worked out" directions (smartphones, tablets, registrars, etc.) as much as possible. In addition, the budget niche is not very empty - there are several well-known Chinese brands that are actively developing the segment of low-cost copters: Syma, Hubsan, Cheerson, Nine Blades and others.


Nevertheless, despite all these points, as was already written above, now there is an explosive growth in the Russian market of drone copters. And above all, due to inexpensive, amateur models. In 2014, the share of semi-professional and professional drones in unit terms reached 70-80%, today it can be estimated at 40-50%, and by the end of 2016, most likely, it will fall to 20-30%. And if the crisis grows, then, most likely, the share of professional copters will fall even more - up to 10-15%. The same will be promoted by state regulation in the field of drones, when for commercial and professional use of these devices will have to get permission. So the professional buyer will once again think whether he needs it.

As an example, we can cite the fact that in 2015, sales of the manufacturer of finished professional drones of the top price segment of the DJI brand (price tag - an average of 40-80 thousand rubles) increased by about 2 times. At the same time, budget Syma quadcopter drones (prices up to 5 thousand rubles) showed a five-sixfold increase in sales. And sales volumes of the once popular semi-professional Parrot copters, on the contrary, decreased by 3-5 times (according to various estimates). True, in the case of Parrot, the reason, rather, is the general weakness of the brand in the Russian market - the low efficiency of the sales channels and the almost complete absence of any advancement. One thing is certain - the amateur entertainment segment is growing much faster than the professional one.

In 2016, this explosive growth will continue, despite the growing crisis. It is very important to note that along with the active development of the most important technologies (which will be discussed below), as drones turn into mass-market goods, the cost of developing and producing models sharply decreases. And not so much professional as models of the mass amateur segment. All this allows even the ruble price tag for drones (despite the fact that drones are not produced in Russia - except for very expensive highly specialized models) to remain at an affordable and comfortable level.

In 2016, despite the difficult situation on the gadget market and more broadly on the portable consumer electronics market, we will see the emergence of a certain number of drones under local Russian umbrella brands. The Chinese are not idle and are actively “duplicating” the advanced technologies of the main leaders in the drone development and production industry. Although the main limitation of the Chinese is the complexity of developing software algorithms for flight stabilization systems, without which the massive use of amateur drones, alas, is simply impossible. This is NOT copying the design or the iron filling, as is the case with the same smartphones and tablets - with drones, everything is much more complicated. Software algorithms are harder to “duplicate” thoughtlessly.


You can’t collect a quadcopter on your knee!

Most likely, large federal retail players in the electronics market will also, in spite of the crisis, start mass selling copters. Still, drones are already a fashionable, mass and, most importantly, fast-growing segment of consumer electronics. At one time, we observed a similar explosion of interest of large retail players, for example, to GPS navigators, then to e-books, then to DVRs - this is the usual process of entering a new product category on the shelves of large stores of federal chains. Now the market has come just in time when both the "umbrellas", dragging Chinese consumer goods, and the "buyers" of large shelves, it is time to begin to work actively with quadrocopters.

The main technological trends of the drone market in 2015-2016 are as follows. Firstly, the massive introduction of flight stabilization systems, which simplify the management of drones. Moreover, if two years ago stabilization systems were the prerogative of only professional expensive drones (well, maybe some other part of semi-professional ones), today automatic stabilization algorithms are already being implemented in amateur drones of the middle price segment. An example is the “traction control” in the same Byrobot drones (from 8,000 rubles). Even very inexpensive models can hang in the air and fly in headless-mode; similar devices can be easily found among Chinese Syma or Hubsan for 4-5 thousand rubles.

Modern stabilization systems have made drones available to the widest class of consumers. You no longer need to learn aerobatics for days on end. Today, even a child can learn to control a modern copter (even a budget one), and in 20-30 minutes. This factor also contributes to the avalanche-like increase in the popularity of drones.


Quadrocopter simulator, control - via the remote control from a real drone

Another current technological trend is the appearance of computer simulators that come with a number of budget drones. These programs allow you to practice drone control on a PC before flying in real life. Such programs can dramatically reduce the percentage of "accidents" in novice pilots ending in serious damage or even "death" of the copter. Therefore, the cost of ownership of the device is significantly reduced.

Finally, another trend is the emergence of designer drones and transformer drones. Drone-constructor allows for damage to any part of the device to independently replace the damaged unit.


An example of a drone-constructor

This technology again significantly reduces the cost of owning a drone. A novice pilot who crashed on his drone during a flight training process can now repair a damaged device independently and on a budget. Previously, there was only one option - professional repair at the service or from electronic specialists. Both that and another in cost sometimes was comparable with the cost of the drone itself. In the case of budget models, it was wiser to buy a new device than to repair a damaged one. In the case of drone constructors, this problem is no longer there.

Transformer drones are a development of the idea of ​​a constructor drone. Such models allow you to change the functionality of the copter by installing or disconnecting the appropriate modules: in a couple of minutes you can use your bare hands to turn the drone into a radio-controlled machine or boat.

Devices that drones can carry as a payload are also being improved. Cameras are getting lighter. And the picture they provide can be used even for shooting a movie. If a few years ago, users basically had to invent their own ways of attaching large professional digital cameras to massive drones, now even all semi-professional models can be equipped with a stabilized gimbal for GoPro format cameras.


Professional DJI drone with a camera on board

Either, as in the case of DJI, own cameras. Even users of miniature, amateur drones did not stay on the sidelines of this trend. For example, a drone of the popular budget brand Syma with an HD camera in the kit will cost 4,490 rubles.

With such an abundance of interesting and modern technological trends, it is important to note that the cheapest Chinese drones have not changed in the last year - in order to develop such devices, improve their performance and introduce new useful features, a serious staff of highly qualified development engineers is needed. And so far only only the most innovative and large Korean, Japanese, European and American companies have it. Creating drones is much more complicated than engineering, for example, a smartphone or tablet. After all, stabilization and flight control algorithms, their development and improvement, are much more complex processes than creating a standard firmware based on some kind of Android phone. In drones, an important role is played by algorithmic flight programming, avionics, in which the Chinese for the most part, so far, alas,

Another reason for the explosive growth of the market is that in 2015, drones turned into a fashion trend in the entertainment industry. UAVs are increasingly becoming a fashionable means of socialization, teambuilding - what paintball, airsoft, quasar and other real-life team games became at one time. Against this background, it is very important to note the technology of sharing drones, the emergence of a powerful socializing functional. If a couple of years ago the copter was a device of purely individual use, then piloting modern drones is already a team, group activity.


Quadcopter attraction in Russia

Racing on quadrocopters is becoming increasingly successful: even all-Russian competitions are held. Aerobatics and overcoming obstacle courses on quadrocopters are becoming an integral part of most activities devoted to robotics and aircraft modeling.


The statistics of user searches confirms: in 2015, the peak of interest in drones fell in April - September.

Due to the reduction in weight and size of modern amateur drones, it becomes possible to use them indoors. In 2015, the peak of interest in drones came in April - September. Which again clearly indicates the market is moving into the mass amateur segment. A year earlier, in 2014, when the bulk of the sold drones were professional and semi-professional, there was no seasonal peak in sales in the summer - professionals buy drones at any time of the year, since they need them for work, not outdoor entertainment. In 2015, there is a significant peak for the period April - September. That is, drones are already massively stocked up for outdoor games.


The Syma X12 Nano nano-drone is designed to be launched indoors - it can be blown away in the open air.

However, due to the appearance of light and miniature models that are safe for interiors on the market, soon the drone enthusiasm may well turn into the all-season category again. And the summer seasonality will again not be so pronounced as it is happening now.

And one more important point: if a year ago a typical drone buyer in the mass market was either a geek who was deeply “bogged down” in gadgets or a professional video operator, now ordinary people who are not technology-addicted take on “quadrics” in bulk. Parents buy drones for games with their children. Because it is, in fact, inexpensive and uncomplicated, but at the same time a deeply socializing technological toy. Moreover, unlike helmets of virtual reality and computer games, socializing in the real, not virtual world: just offline socialization is so lacking now for many people. Especially when it comes to active communication between parents and children.


The study of brain activity when controlling

Parents' drone in drones is an opportunity, on the one hand, to distract the child from the computer (and, as a result, to save from scoliosis and myopia), and on the other, the real benefit of controlling quadrocopters to the development of the brain.

There are still very few examples of truly massive professional use of drones (if we discard the military, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, firefighters and other public services): this is, in fact, only photo and video shooting. This is essentially all. All attempts to massively introduce other scenarios (for example, deliver pizza with drones and so on) today do not go beyond the scope of single experiments.


State drones

State registration of drones, of course, will be carried out, there are already relevant legislative acts. Another thing is that specific practical mechanisms have not yet been developed that would allow us to determine whether a drone flying in the sky is registered or not. How to check it? Shoot it down? And how to shoot down? If you knock it down, check it, but it is registered! What's next? The lawsuit of the owner whose drone was illegally shot down for verification? Copters do not have license plates like cars. So check the fact of registration is possible only at the level of companies-owners of drones. And it is possible to fix the presence of copters and their mass use only if the drones inside the business are not the subject of a single experiment, but the essence of the company's main business process. There are dozens of UAV models; they fly every day. Companies massively using drones in the main business process, so far units. That is, this phenomenon is not yet massive. But the registration mechanisms and, most importantly, the checks, even on paper, have not yet been indicated - everything is only in theory so far.


A large quadrocopter can cause serious damage.

However, registration of drones definitely makes sense - especially in relation to autonomous heavy machines, which in case of a fall can cause serious damage. True, such devices, even in theory, can only serve in the service of large companies, and not among private enthusiasts. In the meantime, on a commercial basis, as mentioned above, almost no one in Russia uses drones. This is a matter for the future.

Record amateur drones, the weight of which is dozens (at best, one and a half and a half) grams, and which are controlled by wireless technologies (radio-Wi-Fi-Bluetooth-IR) from the remote control smartphone, whose range is tens of meters (i.e. which do not fly away from the owner over considerable distances), there is no special meaning. Even in the event of an unauthorized fall or collision, there will be no damage to others or property.


Large quadrocopters better not to get into the blades!

It is important not only to legislatively regulate this sphere, but also to develop a certain level of awareness among users. For games, including in the open air, you need to use safe, light and compact drones. Race vehicles, as well as semi-professional devices, should be used with great care, minimizing the risk of such devices falling and colliding with people. It is better to start the “entry” into the drone theme with simple safe models specially designed for people who first picked up the control panel. But, at the same time, with models that allow you to grow, improve aerobatic art, and do not get bored on the second evening.

Let's try to summarize.From expensive pleasure for wealthy geeks or professional equipment for photographers / videographers, drones are actively turning into gadgets of mass demand. Despite the crisis, the copter market will grow rapidly. And it will grow, first of all, due to budget amateur models. Prospects for drones in the professional segment are not so rosy - already in 2015, many “top” brands with models starting at 15,000 rubles showed stagnation or even decline. Brands with models up to 10,000 rubles, on the contrary, are gaining momentum and showing multiple growth.

The development of technology that simplifies the management of drones and expands the number of scenarios for their use (drones for racing, drones for video shooting, combat drones for team play) also increases the demand for custom copters. Most of the new scenarios so far lie in the field of entertainment - the use of drones as an inexpensive technological toy.

The public already appreciated the utility of drones in terms of socialization (team play, live communication instead of computer games), and scientists have proved that drones control develops the brain. Increasingly, drones-drones come up as a “useful toy”, an alternative to computer and console games, no less exciting, but not “killing” posture and vision.

Businessmen have already caught the fashion of quadrocopters, as a fashionable and inexpensive entertainment. Drones are increasingly being purchased for use in attractions, teambuilding, event industry, decoration of entertainment areas of shopping complexes. Gradually, drones become one of the drivers of the entertainment industry.

Large federal retailers are unlikely to ignore such a rapidly growing market segment, so they are likely to expand the range of drones presented in their stores.

Definitely for 2016-2017 there will be a “boom” in custom drones.