The reasons for the decline in the cost of mobile traffic in Russia and the forecast for 2019

    The other day on Habré was published the news that in 2018 Russia was in the top 10 countries with the lowest cost of mobile traffic. So, for seven months, the average cost of 1 GB of mobile traffic has decreased by 15%. In December 2018, this figure was 55.5 rubles.

    Due to the reduction in the cost of mobile traffic, the demand for mobile Internet has increased, and the average revenue per user has also increased. True, the increase in VAT and the cost of operators on the "Spring Law" in the next year may lead to an increase in prices.

    The cost of mobile traffic fell not only in Russia, but also in other countries of the world. In December, the global price indicator for mobile Internet amounted to 269.3 rubles. (at the rate of the Russian Federation on December 22). In May, this figure reached 280.49 rubles. for 1 GB.

    The cheapest mobile internet is in Romania. Here 1 GB of traffic costs only 9.2 rubles. This is followed by Poland (22.8 rubles), India (23.9 rubles). But the most expensive mobile traffic in countries such as South Korea, where the price of 1 GB reaches 659.8 rubles, the United Arab Emirates (769.2 rubles), Canada (1137 rubles) and Switzerland (1179.7 rubles). Specialists Content Review analyzed the rates of 136 operators in 50 countries. As part of the analysis, tariffs and options with traffic from 4 GB and above were checked, as reported by Kommersant.

    The cost of mobile Internet in different countries is influenced by factors such as the volatility of national currencies, competition, the size of the country, the increase in traffic packages while reducing prices and the introduction of unlimited tariffs. For example, in Russia there were options for unlimited access to mobile TV, music, and social networks. Accordingly, the popularity of the mobile Internet is growing.

    “If the cost is reduced by 1 GB, the consumption of the service increases significantly and, as a result, the income of operators increases as well as the expenses of subscribers, respectively, too,” said Sergey Polovnikov, head of Content Review.

    According to experts, in the next year in the Russian Federation there may be a reverse trend - traffic for mobile devices will begin to rise. The reason is the increase in VAT and the continuation of the implementation of the “Spring Law”. Last week, for example, VimpelCom, Megafon and Tele 2 announced a change in the cost of services from January 2019 due to an increase in VAT.

    Representatives of the operators say that mobile Internet traffic is constantly growing, the average growth rate is 25-38%. Consumption growth is due, for example, to the penetration of 4G smartphones. Tele2 states that they have not yet noticed the influence of the Unlimited on the cost of communication services. In the future, the rejection of unlimited tariffs is inevitable, since this will contribute to the "destruction of the cost of communication services."

    Another analytical company, TMT Consulting, confirms the current decline in the cost of mobile traffic. Operators are making customers more profitable applications and increasing traffic consumption. At the same time, the average revenue per subscriber continues to increase - in 2018 it increased by 5% and amounted to 314 rubles.

    “With the development of mobile devices, the need for speed and volume of incoming traffic is growing, and operators are developing their infrastructure to meet growing needs. At the same time, users rarely pay more for the increasing traffic and spend a relatively fixed amount, ”said Alexander Gushchin, senior analyst at the ACRA corporate ratings group. In his opinion, the average cost of communication over the past 10 years has not changed significantly, but traffic has increased significantly.

    As for the changes that may appear in 2019, they concern not only mobile traffic, but also the devices themselves. In Russia, you may receive administrative liability for the fake IMEI mobile devices. A few weeks ago, such a proposal was made by the Expert Council under the government, in the form of amendments to the Code of Administrative Offenses. The amendments provide for liability for forging IMEI. Individuals for the fact of fake IMEI will be fined for 3000-4000 rubles., Officials - 15000-30000, legal - 60000-100000. Responsibility is planned to be introduced to “ensure a balance of interests of citizens and business.

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