Why is there no Russian Amazon, or where is @ buried? Myths to close

Many times (with and without colleagues ) he studied the e-commerce & online economy market as a whole in Russia: and every time he was amazed at how much it was full of artifacts (meaning close to that ).

And last week before last a few important news became known at once:

1. FAS gave the go-ahead to the union of Technosila and Eldorado
2. At the same time, Technosila herself denied rumors about her (possible) bankruptcy
3. And Sberbank factoring got a round sum from Yulmart

How are these events related?

In fact, not only these, but also a few more:

1. Ozon has not made a profit for almost 20 years now!
2. Enter - started vigorously, fun and young, and finished - like most others: that is, after the actual ruin - I found a new investor .
3. Vladislav Domaracki created the rival once (in 2014-2016) of the largest online retailer - Exist: at the same time, the separation was long , with the participation of Alfa groups and, in essence, brought large players to the market, but nothing to this market yet gave.
4. Yulmart - also the No. 1 store for various (for example, turnover) stores in Russia - has been dirty for many years in conflicts and problems, which, by the way, are often resolved through Alpha groups .
5. On September 12, 17, the Wild Berries Bankruptcy Court was appointed (aka Wildberry / Wildberries): one of the most closed and mysterious Runet projects.

To assess the full power of the problem, here are the TOP-100 e-commerce for 2015 and 2016:

1. 2016
2. www.ruward.ru/ecommerce-index-2015

I will even choose TOP-10 (2016):

1. Yulmart
2. Wild berries
3. Citylink
4. M Video
5. Exist
6. El Dorado
7. Connected
8. Kupivip
9. Ozon
10. Komus

I crossed out those about whom information was received regarding possible bankruptcy, big debts, bad reputation, etc. And that is 80% of the TOP 10.

But, before making conclusions - a little history.

The history of one association

In 2005, the company Sotmarket was born in the capital of Russia, specializing in the sale of various kinds of accessories for telephones and other equipment, and in 2006 a store with a modest name appeared in another capital of the Urals: e96. But even before them, namely in 2004 in the region No. 77, the first Russian online store grew, whose shares were traded on the stock exchange - Utinet.

The difference, as we see, is not big: a year or two.

Soon, Sotmarket became the fastest growing in online sales, e96 - the largest among regional ones, and Yutinet even entered an IPO.

2014 was the key for the first, the second, and the third: they were united :

E96 co-founders Boris Lepinsky and Dmitry Pivovarov received about 20% of the shares, another 20% - from the creator of Sotmarket Vsevolod Fear, 7% - from Utinet co-founder Mikhail Ukolov

The most interesting thing is that, as the lawyers like to say, the ultimate beneficiary (whether the question is the final one, though) is Ulfi Kasimov. I will not allocate a lot of space, just give a link and a brief summary on it:

Ulvi Kasimov traded in petroleum products, worked for Gazprom and the Kurchatov Institute, met with members of the Lake cooperative. How did he turn into an online investor?

I think the quote is speaking? ..

But the enlargement did not end there. Quite the contrary: the bundle “sotmarket + utility + e96” (in fact, in any order) gradually, even very quickly for such giants, disappeared and only e96 remained afloat: neither joint purchases, nor a change in marketing strategy - nothing brought profitability. And as a result - Technosila - a monster from the distant 1993th - acquired the final e96 .

By the way, to make it clear why Amazon remembered (not only because it is number 1 in “pure” e-commerce, even despite the presence of Ali, Tao and others from the Middle Kingdom):

Our goal is not to overtake Ozon, our goal is to overtake Amazon, - once said the CEO of Yutinet mitry Dosko

In fact, it turned out to be all the easier: the game of b on the ng bigger fool , how to put one Habrozhitel. But she didn’t end there.

Namely, the following happened: the association under the sonorous name “Safmar”, which belongs to M. Gutseriev (about him - a little lower), bought the largest network for the sale of household appliances “ M. Video”. Moreover, even earlier (but also this year), the same businessman made purchases of Eldorado and Technosil. Here's a sweat non-consumer basket.

And FAS (see above) is not opposed.

To understand the whole point of the situation, you need to go to the Wiki :

Mikail (Mikhail) Safarbekovich Gutseriev ... The main shareholder of the Industrial and Financial Group SAFMAR (former BIN group), which includes NK RussNeft JSC, Russian Coal OJSC, Mospromstroy PJSC, Binbank PJSC, Inteko, A101; owner of the British company GCM Global Energy Inc. with an annual turnover of $ 1 billion (the latter produces oil in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan). It controls major real estate assets (including National, Petrovsky Passage and Smolensky Passage in Moscow). Member of the board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

Here is a list.

At the same time, Binbank is a very, very interesting association (VTB and Otkrytiy can compete with it, but about them next time): in particular, in 2016 Binbank merged (in essence, “bought”) MDM Bank . At the same time, in 2009, MDM itself merged with the URSA-tank . In addition, in 2014 Binbank bought Mosprivatbank shares (for obvious reasons, which should not be voiced on Habré). In the same year, this fin. the group actually acquired DNB Bank. I will not load for years, I will say who else was attached:

1. Growth bank
2. Cedar bank
3. Akkobank
4. SKA-Bank
5. Tveruniversalbank
6. Uralprivatbank
7. GC "Europlan" - by the way, the market leader in car leasing

Here are such trends: it is clear that “small” credit organizations, rumpled about the Central Bank ’s policy of “recalling and intimidating” , as well as closing entire sectors of the economy with new laws (or even letters ), go “under the wing” of those close to ... ( choose the right one yourself), as lawyers say, of public authority. But after all, exactly the same trends can be observed outside the banking sector: another striking example is the Euroset , which, after, again, bright and well-known events, was first united, and then - they wanted to disconnect more than once. But not just like that, but to merge with the salons of Megaphone and Beeline.

But, back to Binbank: so, by the end - under its wing there are not only several different banks, but in the same structure is the largest network for the sale of equipment. More precisely - the only one?

Yes, there is also a Fridge, DNS and a number of others: but can they resist this spike on aluminum legs? After all, the same DNS, entering a new city, implemented a simple scheme: to take the main profit not from the buyer, but from the supplier. Due to bonuses and discounts. Due to large purchases in one word.

And what is the result?

But in the end (I can confirm in a number of regions - the Urals, Siberia, the Far East, if you have something wrong - write) - DEXP and DNS have virtually supplanted the normal equipment from the shelves. And, for example, in Irkutsk, all small companies (comparatively, of course), whether Formosa or laptop mini-markets, actually left the market and diversity disappeared, and the quality deteriorated. Yes, and sellers have become far from the format "your opinion is important to us." By the way, in M. Video - the same song last year. Or not?

But this is subjective: objectively, there are several myths that I have heard more than once at various conferences, seminars and webinars, other meetings and, of course, in articles from Ozon and Co. (the first is simply the most vivid in this sense) . Here they are - and their refutation on the basis of the data received and verified already:

1. Consolidation of a business is always good for the consumer: at a price - yes, winnings are possible. Firstly, the players themselves (aka sellers) put discounts on large household appliances to the limit and the margin in the end is lower than 1-2% (depending on the category, etc.). That's just a trifle, the same margin can take off up to 120% or more percent (covers - a separate conversation). Secondly, large wholesale is large wholesale. But in the long run - in the medium and especially in the long run, all this leads to the fact that the companies themselves, be it M.Video, Eldorado, Enter, or someone else (this is especially clearly seen, in my opinion, on just the example of Sotmarket) come to the fact that they can’t reach the payback at any turn: neither in the millionth, nor in the billionth, because costs are rising not proportional to profitability. Take a look at Ozon and D.
   
   Perekalski's twitter about earnings. And that is why I do not believe in a 99% ICO and in the theory of investing in startups. In Russia, first of all: yes, people like Y. Milner, A. Usmanov and a number of others manage to collect the cream, but only because not everyone has the opportunity to make, say, Mail.ru plan tax reduction and ... it took place . Speculation? This evil. And this is - IMHO. In addition, the quality of goods may not necessarily grow: the example of DNS and Eldorado for me in this regard is indicative. Another market that is simply terrible due to the lack of normal competition is mobile communications (if interested, read mybinder ).
   
   
2. Yes, big business is easier to control : but on the one hand, and on the other, on the other hand, in the case of monopolization of competition, small ones go into gray and even black zones. For those who want to trace the situation from and to - I recommend two areas: the first is cryptocurrencies and the second is self-employed citizens who were given a delay of 2 years , but thereby warned that, in fact, these two years remained with them.
   
   
3. If you have ever seen a prize“Big turnaround”, as Wikimart, Ozon and others like them spoke, then you must have been visited by the thought: “What kind of nonsense, gentlemen, are you talking about?” (Sometimes, by the way, and ladies). The point is not how much the turnover will increase, but when it will cover the costs. In general, there is a successful example of a large and long-term investment - Avito: but there everything was calculated even before entering the market. Others follow the well-worn, tired, but still working scheme: take the first millions of dollars, increase the product mix, increase turnover, make the next round, which will include more investors, the total capital will increase, as will the share of the initial investors, and so on until until the losses are already tangible for a certain group of investors, and the first one is free to sell (a super example for me personally -Qiwi with a beautiful cash purchase schedule, reflected in the price). And that’s it: there is money, and the loss is not such as to close. Someone doesn’t succeed in one step - they do in two: say, Enter. At the same time, all these “giants” really, really don’t like “ competitors ” in the form of small business (who cares - I address O. Hartman with his speech on conversion).
   
   
4. Speaking of price : it not only grows on trifles, but also grows when retailers want it. Let's say on video cards today, when mining just breaks all records. This can be explained by the fact that demand-creates-supply, but in fact, retail chains simply set the price higher one day, then higher, and then ... increased. And while competing with them in procurement in China is quite difficult: the volume is too large. And now video cards are, like, say, gold or diamonds, not only a limited resource in itself, but also a resource artificially limited. For better or worse, ask gamers.
   
   
5. Also, I did not find any confirmation that the service of large companies is growing: it’s not even in Sberbank where it’s somehow gotten (from region to region), not in the Russian Post, where the leadership has been changed for the fifth time, not in Russian Railways, where the fare in the compartment for 12 hours equals living in a good hotel on Lake Baikal, not in VTB, which has not learned how to automate foreign trade activities at the proper level, no. Rather, the fact is that everything has less or less settled down online, but offline, for all control purchases (and there were over 100), everyone who is offline is not 100% tested. However, about it - next time.
   
   
6. And finally, the main myth : money (their amount) is everything. This myth is imposed in the Russian Federation in many areas. And it, for a number of reasons, is supported by ordinary citizens and even IPs. But this is not so. This is especially clearly seen in niche online stores that have to survive in a harsh environment, where there are hypermarkets, Chinese and, to put it mildly, strange state regulation.

I’ll end with another small, but very revealing story: in 2015 (!) In Russia they decided to make their own Aliexpress. And everything would be fine, but in two years (2 years!), It was done ... ATTENTION! 24 orders! . Well, maybe there were tests and the section worked for hardly a year. But what changes from this?

And this despite the fact that small businesses have something to sell to China (and he successfully does this, for example, in our region): from birch bark products and herbs, to some unique crafts and even musical compositions. Another question is that all this is artisanal. There is no platform, because fill it "from above" and according to its own rules.

And that is why according to statisticsThe Russian Post notes that almost 80% are parcels from China, and Ali - at any time can make a free parcel of any amount - paid . Already done. How it delivers is a separate issue .

It is possible and even certain (since the Habré search was woolly prepared) similar articles already existed. But, firstly, still no one sees the whole picture in a global context. Secondly, few people understand that ultimately this approach leads to the fact that money from the Russian Federation is quietly transferred to Europe, the USA, and China, because Investors from the Immense - one, two and miscalculated. Thirdly, this is already a thesis without evidence, although, if necessary, I can cite them, if in a small business country below 33-40% there are obvious problems in the country. By the way, according to various sources (if there are official ones, I will be glad): in China, at different times, this figure reached 60%. IN USA - . In the Russian Federation - you can see here .

And for IT this is problem number 1, because freelance, indie development, small teams, etc. - all this is primarily about IT. After all, we don’t have garage startups precisely because the political authorities consider it necessary to fight, rather than develop a garage economy . Or not? Meanwhile, Apple is directly evidence of the opposite.