Arguments about the prospects in Telecom

    If you believe the experts, in the near future is expected to consolidate the market of telecom operators. But, as history shows, it is worth believing only the baseline assessments of the situation by experts, and not their predictions, because these predictions come true at best in 30% of cases. Especially in the field of market and economy.

    The main characteristic of today's telecommunications market is the continuous decline in business profitability since 2008 and the strengthening of this trend since 2014. The following internal causes lead to this:

    • there is practically no oversaturation of the market of communication services that are not covered by customer services, especially in cities;
    • high competition in the market, only in the market of the Moscow region about 7000 telecom operators.

    And of course, there are external reasons:

    • The “Spring” law, strict requirements for the implementation of SORM events. Urgent need for serious new capital investments in network infrastructure.
    • The constant crisis in the entire economy of the state. Sanctions, the ruble is falling, the dollar is growing, the cost of oil is low, and the cost of gasoline is rising. Officially, inflation is not very high, but the cost of housing and communal services, rent, electricity, etc., is constantly increasing.
    • Housing and communal services initiatives that are popular today, such as “clear sky” or land improvement, as well as demonization of telecom operators in the media on this topic And no one thinks about whether the operator has a real technical and economic opportunity to remove his air-cable passage under the ground or restore the linear-cable structure (cable sewerage) in a particular place.

    Historical parable told in one of the forums.
    На фоне этой не очень радостной картины вспоминается история, рассказанная Генеральным директором УфаНет: «Во время реконкисты Испании одного султана взяли в плен вместе с семьёй. Решили его повесить, а жену и детей в живых оставить. Султан начал умолять оставить его в живых. Услышав это, жена султана сказала мужу: «Если бы ты дрался, как мужчина, то сейчас не умирал бы как собака». Действительно, раньше основной императив всех форумов и выставок для операторов связи был — «как заработать». Сейчас — «как выжить».

    What can the operator do in this situation?

    In my opinion, in the current situation, the telecom operator has several prospects:

    1. Sell ​​your business to someone. Those who wish to eat and they are not enough. Large domestic operators routinely expand their business or remove competitors, report to investors on increasing the company's capitalization. Foreign operators enter the market. Someone wants to enter the telecom business. However, every year the cost of the operator is surprisingly lower, although the operator’s network is growing.
    2. Raise prices for their services. Thus - try to increase profitability. This of course is fraught with the loss of customers and the loss of market share. But all the customers won't go away at once.
    3. Nothing to do. It is also an option. The market is dynamic, maybe the fat times will blow over and come. Or it will become clear what to do and where to urgently run, to catch up with those who did something.
    4. To be engaged in parallel with any other activity, for example, as one Moscow operator, cleaning. And what, comes the installer to connect the client, at the same time and cleaning the apartment will do. Or IT topics to come to grips with, start developing software, since the IT block in telecom is usually well represented. Or take up the topic of cryptocurrency that is popular right now.
    5. Come up with their own "chip", which will "shoot" and lead the company to a "bright communist, capitalist, socialist (emphasize) future". As an option, create your own TV channel or shoot your own stream for Youtube, you just need to find the appropriate niche topic.

    In any case, it will take a serious review of its activities and once again evaluate the market. But first - to answer the question: what will change in this world if a particular telecommunication company ceases to exist?

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