IT development for the next 15-20 years: media can be forgotten

Lyrical introduction

So, I probably already tried to tell a lot about the development of IT, but, in many cases, the conversation did not work constructively.
Today I will try again.

A bit of nostalgia: early 2000s

Remember the level of computerization about 10 years ago: in 2001, only recently the Intel Pentium 4 processor line came out, which was considered a technological breakthrough. Dial-up connections began to die out slowly, giving way to local networks and ADSL.
For many gamers, the year was also important: games such as Grand Theft Auto III, Diablo II: Lord of Destruction, Devil May Cry, Truckers-2 were released. Having at home a dedicated 256 kilobits / s and a staff with Pentium 4 and a gigabyte of RAM, you considered yourself the owner of the coolest computer. The Livejournal blog service has just started, social networks have not yet “leaked” into our bright minds. The World wide web, having just taken the baton after FTN-networks, took a stronger position, soon completely replacing the echoes. But let's not talk about sad things.
It takes only about 10 years, and the result of progress is evident. What result? Perhaps you yourself can draw some conclusions for yourself by making a comparison.

Overall picture

From the memories of a decade ago, we will return today. So let's imagine that a time machine has been invented right now and now, that we can set off for the future right now.
Fifth generation wireless communication is walking through the air, which, quite possibly, will be transmitted not from the base station to the client, but as a peer-to-peer network. Do you have a connection? Share it with others.
Social networks will become an integral part of your life. If now they can still be abandoned, then in the future it will become almost impossible. They will become tied to everything: work, study, shopping, chatting with friends, credit cards, dating, web applications, without which it will be difficult to live. Social networks will completely replace Instant Messaging, which means the complete death of ICQ and other IM. Having access to the Internet and remain anonymous will be next to impossible. New authorization tools will appear, possibly based on public keys. Cloud computing will become something commonplace and at the same time vital.
An ordinary mobile phone in its main purpose will become a rarity: when you can still meet a person who uses a cell phone for calls and messages, in the future it is possible that the main function will be performed by the network.
Voice communication will be transmitted via Skype or similar technologies: with the development of wireless networks, regular GSM will become irrelevant.
The situation in the mobile market will change, but not as much as you might think. The “hardware” of communicators will reach a certain mark, quite possibly almost catching up with modern personal computers by today's standards.
Cash will be in demand only among the older generation; stores accepting cash will be less and less common.

Gaming, home and office PCs will be the same

Yes, yes, just as you read, all "user" PCs will become approximately the same. The market for personal and office computers will, of course, change, but not as much as one might imagine. Home computers will
only serve as a "thin client" with the operating system, and everything else will be in the "clouds". Losing your data will be much more difficult: now the role of file storage will be performed by remote servers, whose services by that time will become so cheaper that they will cost less than HDD and SSD.
Most will use tablet PCs: they are much more convenient than laptops, and the connection to the network ... Well, you understand.
All (well, or almost all) software will be outsourced, i.e. using cloud computing and / or web technologies.

Server

The largest manufacturers of video chips in a large-scale mode will produce special server video cards that will be used by game distributors. Already there is a game service On-live, about which I wrote a little earlier.
The number of cores in processors, compared to today, will increase significantly, thanks to nanotechnology. However, the frequencies in them will not increase much: it is possible that quantum or optical processors will come to replace them.

Carriers

It is possible, as described above, the media will not be as relevant as it is today. Firstly, the cost of solid-state media will drop sharply, and secondly, by that time their volume will increase by two or three times, and thirdly, most likely, only a few will use them, due to cheaper or even free cloud file storage. Remember how fifteen years ago there were no free mail servers? Perhaps it will be the same here.

Free software

OpenSource will occupy a larger audience, only because of the spread of cloud computing. After all, what's the difference on what to view the results of tasks performed in the “clouds”, isn't it? It is possible that open source will be divided into two parts: the first will relate to conservative developers who do not recognize the storage of data on network attached storage, and the second part will be modern, supporting current trends in technology development. As you know, Richard Stallman is categorically against "cloud computing", but they will play a huge role in the life of GNU / Linux, thereby leaving him a huge piece of the pie in the market of operating systems and software.

the Internet

Of course, it will be something more than today. All sites and services will be closely tied to social networks, right down to credit cards.
Very slowly, but almost everyone will switch to IPv6, thereby expanding the network to infinity. Almost every device connected to the network will now have an external address.
Search engines, with the development of cybernetics will become smarter, the ranking of search queries will become much more efficient, finding information will become easier and faster. Things like voice search will become more popular and effective.

Piracy

As for piracy, it will become unprofitable and will almost disappear. Already, many use online services and game distributors (for example, On-Live, Orign or Steam) for everyday needs and have forgotten what drives are. Piracy makes no sense. For example, games will no longer be sold as game discs: you can only subscribe to them at the game distributor and play. The games will run on servers, and the end user will only receive image and sound. So that.

Frames

IT will become an even more professional industry than it is now: the enikeyschik will practically disappear as a class. IT departments will take over either large independent companies, the rest will use the services of IT outsourcing.

Education

IT education, as well as education in general, will change dramatically. All employers and universities will get used to the Bologna process, being a bachelor soon will not be so bad. Finding a job in IT without a higher education will become almost impossible,
as information technology will go far ahead. The evening and correspondence departments of universities will soon close, replacing distance learning online.

Impact on life in general

Based on all the above, it is easy to conclude: information technology does not stand still, developing as a living organism. Mobile Internet will become the most common means of data transfer, phones will be able to recognize faces and search for these people on social networks, everyone will forget about anonymity. Money, CDs, passports and even your data - all this, after some 10-15 years, will completely go online, but the average person will have nothing to do but trust third parties.