Do not bury the old dirty web or the myth of the life-giving sensor

Although in many ways there is a certain logic in this topic , but still, it seems to me that the author looks at it somehow very one-sidedly.
And I would also like to be in the shoes of a predictor-psychic, so I present my forecast.

I, like febb , express my personal opinion, and I will be happy to discuss it.

Tablets and computers

Let's look into the past: The computer was like a research tool. Big, huge and nobody else in the world really needs. Then the first "personal" began to appear. The benefit that he began to bring for office work does not even need to be explained - everyone already understands that this is a cheap way to do a little automation (And an expensive way to implement a lot of optimization).

For home use, it was little needed, so at home, often, he was with children who actually warmed up their interest in writing games on computers.

The advent of ubiquitous, inexpensive Internet access made it possible to get a computer at home, even if it wasn’t needed for work, not for games. Often it is idle and turned on to search for movie shows or household appliances. Getting dusty.
Many never bought an inpatient at home, or got rid of it, after the collapse in laptop prices. The laptop does not need much space and it is more convenient to erase the dust in order.

So the forecast for the first section:

• Stationary PCs are needed in offices. And no iPad will drive him out of there.
  The development of computer games, the development of applications for films, 3D graphics, the development of production lines, industrial design, design, architecture, writing computer tools for the first category, mathematical modeling, forecasting, the creation of documents will only be on desktop computers.
  They will go from stationary to maximum notebook option, if the latter is simply cheaper.
• Gaming computers are likely to depart into another world. It’s not logical to buy a computer for games right now. Inconvenient, expensive.
• The market for server PCs will definitely not shake the tablet.
• Laptops are unlikely to drop much in sales, although they will slow down the wild growth rate of recent years. The tablet does not cancel the laptop.
• The tablets will definitely evolve. If they still fall in price, then many will have it for reading the world wide web, for small games for killing time. Most likely they will take away a niche from laptops from those who need a computer for surfing and kerchiefs.
• The computer market itself will still grow.

Web

Initially, sites simply described information. No interactivity. But first, chats, then forums, then social networks and a large number of online stores entered our lives. And since the Internet allows you to enjoy information at any time convenient for you, image sites have also appeared that, combined with advertising on more traditional media, give very good results (and / or with viral marketing).

Also, the Internet is not only B2P, but also B2B. And Internet mail is one of the oldest and at the same time leading tools. And now platforms for advertising, selling services, and even trading on exchanges have been added.

Now the network is divided: these are services for entertainment, work, commerce, etc. To say that it will lose relevance is not to delve into the essence of what is happening right now.
The web is used for completely different purposes. This market has long been divided, and each of its parts has long been living its own life.

So the forecast for the web:

• From the first point, it is clear why browser games are what they are now. They are mainly played by office employees. And they will not go anywhere. On the tablet, oh, as soon as some kind of 1C accounting appears, and working in the office on the tablet is less comfortable. To prevent him from being in the offices, the keyboard is enough - you obviously can’t sit on it for 8 hours.
  
• It will really be pointless for many small companies to launch their site on the Internet, especially if there are pleasant and convenient platforms for advertising and describing their services. And every year these sites are improving.
  But this does not mean at all that the word “site” will begin to lose meaning. I think that everything will also be very strong in the direction of image sites for films, promotions, music discs, games, social networks, and other small entertainment (Radio amateur forums, discussion of technology, medical preparations, football, trends).
  And such sites will work fine on tablets, because release a tablet with any API = release a tablet with a browser. If you don’t build it yourself, then there will always be some kind of Opera.
  
• CMS will not go anywhere. It’s just that over the next 5 years the market will grow up, and the most unfortunate options will fall out of it, which generally happens in any new market that has passed its “novelty boom”. There will be good proven tools and even paid ones. Paid CMFs will develop.
• Stagnation WWW will not be the next 5 years. Newspapers, television and radio also seem to live on the same model - advertising. But you must admit, the Internet has many more models in the storehouse for profit. WWW will grow and change and adapt to platforms and hobbies. He will increasingly provide our life not only with leisure, but also with everyday life.

Electronic ink

This is a completely different type of screen! Do you understand how convenient the subtractive screen system is? She can not compete with the additive model where it is used, but this is not required.
I think that in five years the technical level will allow us to see such screens where we did not expect to see them at all.
This technology is a dark horse, and I wouldn’t just write it off from my accounts.
Winking packs of cigarettes, indicators on laptop lids, posters of the living sea, live photos.
If not after five, then after ten years for sure.

Conclusion

Once again, tablets, touch screens, electronic ink - will not close the old markets. They will open new ones. And comprehensive computerization, getting closer and closer.

ps The Internet will be on the TV. But I’m very not sure that this will be massive in five years.