HashFlare Arithmetic

I have always been attracted to the topic of personal finance. He experimented with various financial instruments - depersonalized metal accounts, the stock market, mutual investment funds, even indulged in PAMM accounts. I did not spend much time and money on this, more for the sake of interest and for general development.

Acquaintance with cryptocurrencies began in late 2013. I read publications about Satoshi, algorithms, mining and prospects for investing in bitcoin - and decided to take a chance. At that time, btc just flew into the heavens, teasing the imagination. Registered at btc-e.com and purchased. As usual, immediately after that, everything suddenly became bad :)

Looking at the course falling during the first year, I was sad, lazily and not always successfully juggled with ltc, nvc, nmc, and then completely abandoned the remaining funds to the mercy of fate.

At the end of 2016, I came across an article about HashFlare .It became curious, and the desire to experiment again woke up. Just in case, I studied the current situation with cloud mining services ( bitmakler.com helped a lot ), and decided. Btc-e funds were enough to purchase 1.41 TH / s SHA-256 and 20 MH / s Scrypt perpetual power. It was December 23, 2016, SHA-256 then cost 1 usd for 0.01 TH / s, Scrypt - 6.6 usd for 1 MH / s.

I spent the week monitoring the situation and playing with the pools - the first payments were made, for a smooth account I reinvested them into SHA-256 to 1.5 TH / s and left mine.

By the beginning of March, 0.04026 btc came running. I checked the conclusion (I can recommend bestchange.rufor choosing an exchanger): I stopped at the hashflare option → cryptopay.me → x-pay.cc → Tinkoff Black, c sent 0.04 btc to the card came 2,608.83 rubles (65,220.75 rub / btc) at the market rate of about 67,000 rub / btc.

Questions began to appear - Is it possible that it is not enough for 2.5 months? What is the annual rate? How soon can I go to zero? - and I began to count.

HashFlare has a complete history of operations in your account:

Also, there is a capacity purchase magazine:

This is quite enough to start. I take all this and bring it to the divine form:

Here I will explain a couple of nuances:

Types of operations
For payments, only payments for mining (pay) and write-offs for maintenance (mt) matter, blank lines are operations of reinvestment, I do not take them into account.

Units of power (unit)
In order not to become attached to their own capacities, but to make the calculations more universal, I decided to reduce all sums to a unit of power. To obtain comparable values, the SHA-256 unit selected 0.1 TH / s, and the Scrypt unit selected 1 MH / s. Thus, in the BTC per unit column, the amount of the operation in terms of the power unit of the corresponding algorithm was obtained.

Now I will present this data in a more convenient form for analysis - by day, I place the operations in columns:

Here, even visually begin to be traced fluctuations in amounts. Let's draw them:

So-so trend - payments are falling, charges for service begin to take away all the greater part of them.

I will make a small lyrical digression about charges for service . On bitmakler and other resources, Hashflare customers are outraged by the growing share of write-offs in payments, without thinking about how they are calculated. To understand this, just look at the frequently asked questions on the site of the service, it is written there in Russian and white:

Maintenance fee and electricity are 0.0035 USD for every 10 GH / s SHA-256 and 0.01 USD for every 1 MH / s Scrypt. There are no fees for Ethereum contracts.

Maintenance and electricity charges are not billed separately. The fee is deducted from the user's balance at the time of the daily accrual of the designated funds. Although the balance sheet is kept at BTC and the service charge is in USD, the fee is charged at BTC at the current USD / BTC exchange rate, which is beneficial for the client if the exchange rate rises, since more BTC remains on the client’s account.

If representatives of Hashflare will read this, correct “the fee is charged in BTC” and the rest of the typographical errors in the FAQ;)

There's also a bit of a mess in the btc . And let's check! For this we need to perform the reverse operation. Here, it is a bit confusing with buying / selling rates, time zones, etc., but we take a course for opening usd / btc trading from the FAQ specified in investing.com and use it to calculate write-offs for the completed day:

Let's draw:

And here I am in some confusion. The charges for Scrypt confidently keep at the level of the promised 0.1 usd per 1 MH / s. But the write-off for SHA-256 is somehow strange sausage from 0.0354 to 0.0409 usd per 0.1 TH / s instead of the promised 0.035 (remember that the amount for 10 GH / s is indicated in the FAQ, and in the calculations SHA-256 unit - 100 GH / s). If someone tells me where I was wrong, I will be grateful. Otherwise, I would like to receive comments from a HashFlare representative .

Let's return to the question of annual interest. To do this, prepare the following data:

Explanation of indicators:

ret, $ - return, the difference between payment and withdrawal for service in terms of usd
int,% - interest, shows what part of the cost of a unit of power will give a return for 365 days, let's call this “annual interest”, but do not forget that, unlike a bank deposit, the investments must be subtracted from the amount received

Let's draw:

The percentage does not stand still and depends mainly on the btc rate (remember about the almost fixed for fiat currency write-offs for services). For comparison, here is the btc rate chart for the same period:

The annual percentage seems to fall equally with the course, and grows twice as slowly.

Remain the final calculations on the basis of the detailed data that give answers to my questions:

Average annual interest for the period 83 days -
103.16% for SHA-256, and 86.30% for Scrypt

investment return period for such a percentage is 385 days

Over In less than 3 months, almost 20% of the invested funds were returned ( this was never the case for deposits ), and in 10 months, if the situation does not change much, I’ll go to zero and start making a profit. I hope that the btc course will only grow, and HashFlare will get stronger and not increase the cost of maintenance :)

All my calculations are ~~completely free, without registration and SMS~~you can study at google docs . I will be glad to any additions and corrections in the comments.

UPD: By the way, you can make yourself a copy of the document and recount everything on your data. There will be questions - please contact.

UPD 06/03/2017: The growing rate of BTC has a very positive effect on the overall picture.