Analysis of the smartphone market after 10 years
Referring to the article: Marketers have already won or why I will never buy myself a top smartphone , I would like to make my own analysis of the smartphone market in 2007 and 2016. In his analysis of the market, the author comes to the conclusion that smartphones over the past 10 years have risen by 20% . He comes to this simply by calculating the average price for top smartphones in 2007 and 2016, but he does not take into account the very important parameter - Purchasing power . This parameter negates all his reasoning, and as a result we get a completely different result.
Now I will give an analysis of the smartphone market taking into account purchasing power for two markets: the United States and Russia .
* The article uses the dollar rate dated November 2007 and November 2016.
** All statistics are taken from the Trading Economics website .
*** In order to accurately see the difference, I will use the data on prices for smartphones from the same article.
In 2007:
In 2016:
The average salary in the United States over the past 10 years.
In 2007, the average salary in the United States was about $ 3,000 (17 / hour * 176 / hour per month). For this money, it was possible to buy 5.1 ($ 3,000 / $ 582) top smartphones
In 2016, the average salary in the United States is about $ 3,800 (21.72 / hour * 176 / hours per month). For this money you can buy 6.55 ($ 3,800 / $ 700) top smartphones.
Total we get that real prices fell by 22%
The average salary in Russia over the past 10 years.
In 2007, the average salary in Russia was about $ 553 . For this money you could buy 0.95 ($ 553 / $ 582) top smartphones.
In 2016, the average salary in Russia is about $ 572 . For this money you can buy 0.81 ($ 572 / $ 700) top-end smartphones.
In general, Russia was greatly influenced by recent events, three years earlier it was possible to easily buy 1-1.1 top smartphones.
Total we get real prices increased by 15%.
We come to the conclusion that price increases do not occur everywhere, but in individual markets, depending on the situation in this market.In general, there is no sense to continue further, everything is clear here. I turn to general comments.
- The author compares the LCD display in 2002 and the TFT display in 2016. This is fundamentally wrong, for 2002 the 21 "LCD display was something new, and new technologies are known to be more expensive. In 2016, TFT Displays cost a penny because their production technology has become much simpler and production is cheaper, and marketing costs are lower.
- Then the author begins to give statistics according to which in recent years the production of smartphones has increased globally:
Here I completely agree with him. Go ahead.
And here I am, in general, disappointed in the author, he turns out to be an egoist! He cites graphics on which almost everything is becoming more expensive, including electronics, and this is happening in Russia, in RUSSIA! Maybe this happens because in Russia as a whole is not a very economic situation? But no, the author persistently lays on one size with Russia such countries as the USA, Germany, etc., in which the economic situation is much better than in Russia. The author accuses marketers who artificially create demand for goods, as it were, and not the state which is responsible for the economy. Prices rose by 20%, because salaries remained almost the same, but in the United States, where wages also increase besides prices, prices fell.
Now I will give an analysis of the smartphone market taking into account purchasing power for two markets: the United States and Russia .
* The article uses the dollar rate dated November 2007 and November 2016.
** All statistics are taken from the Trading Economics website .
*** In order to accurately see the difference, I will use the data on prices for smartphones from the same article.
In 2007:
- Nokia N81 $ 490
- Nokia N81 8Gb $ 550
- Nokia N95 8Gb $ 690
- iPhone 8Gb $ 599
- The average price of smartphones: $ 582
In 2016:
- iPhone 7 Plus 128Gb $ 869
- Galaxy Note5 64Gb $ 615
- Sony Xperia XZ 32Gb $ 717
- Huawei Nexus 6P 128Gb $ 599
- The average price of smartphones: $ 700
USA
The average salary in the United States over the past 10 years.
In 2007, the average salary in the United States was about $ 3,000 (17 / hour * 176 / hour per month). For this money, it was possible to buy 5.1 ($ 3,000 / $ 582) top smartphones
In 2016, the average salary in the United States is about $ 3,800 (21.72 / hour * 176 / hours per month). For this money you can buy 6.55 ($ 3,800 / $ 700) top smartphones.
Total we get that real prices fell by 22%
Russia
The average salary in Russia over the past 10 years.
In 2007, the average salary in Russia was about $ 553 . For this money you could buy 0.95 ($ 553 / $ 582) top smartphones.
In 2016, the average salary in Russia is about $ 572 . For this money you can buy 0.81 ($ 572 / $ 700) top-end smartphones.
In general, Russia was greatly influenced by recent events, three years earlier it was possible to easily buy 1-1.1 top smartphones.
Total we get real prices increased by 15%.
We come to the conclusion that price increases do not occur everywhere, but in individual markets, depending on the situation in this market.In general, there is no sense to continue further, everything is clear here. I turn to general comments.
General remarks
- The author compares the LCD display in 2002 and the TFT display in 2016. This is fundamentally wrong, for 2002 the 21 "LCD display was something new, and new technologies are known to be more expensive. In 2016, TFT Displays cost a penny because their production technology has become much simpler and production is cheaper, and marketing costs are lower.
- Then the author begins to give statistics according to which in recent years the production of smartphones has increased globally:
Well, maybe in the world they began to produce less mobile phones or demand fell? Let's figure it out.
Here are interesting graphs that show us the brave growth of two market locomotives, albeit in the short interval 2010-2012 ...
Here I completely agree with him. Go ahead.
Demand is growing steadily, production is growing ... Competition, judging by the market is also present. And what's the price? Is growing too ?!
Trying to see the exact picture through the veil of my own delusions, I turned to the last argument, which, perhaps, could be one of the most weighty. I found a wonderful post in LiveJournal in which the author collected Rosstat data and built many graphs illustrating the purchasing power of the Russian population from 1995 to 2015.
According to the link I recommend to go, there are many interesting things. We are primarily interested in red-green graphics. And you need to evaluate the values of 2007 and 2015.
And here I am, in general, disappointed in the author, he turns out to be an egoist! He cites graphics on which almost everything is becoming more expensive, including electronics, and this is happening in Russia, in RUSSIA! Maybe this happens because in Russia as a whole is not a very economic situation? But no, the author persistently lays on one size with Russia such countries as the USA, Germany, etc., in which the economic situation is much better than in Russia. The author accuses marketers who artificially create demand for goods, as it were, and not the state which is responsible for the economy. Prices rose by 20%, because salaries remained almost the same, but in the United States, where wages also increase besides prices, prices fell.