Statistics: why you should not buy Apple shares after the release of the new iPhone

Original author: Matt Krantz
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It would seem that a great plan is to buy Apple shares right now , wait until the presentation of the company, which is expected to present a new iPhone and ... bam! Instant wealth. It sounds just fine, but not everything is “i-simple.” There are a large number of such clever people on the market, and they have done a similar trick more than once, which has led to a decrease in the possible profit from similar speculations. Each time, the stock market reacts more and more calmly to the release of the new iPhone. If you look from the moment of the release of the very first model, which took place on January 9, 2007, then on average, Apple shares after each release grew in price by 0.3% - a similar average growth was shown by the S&P 500 index over the same period of time.



It must be understood that even such average values ​​are due to a significant surge that took place after the very first iPhone was released. In the future, not a single new Apple smartphone caused an equally enthusiastic reaction from investors in the stock market. If you do not take into account the release of the first smartphone of the company from Cupertino, then after the release of new iPhones, on the next stock of the company fell, on average, by one percent.

When considering a longer time period of 30 days after the launch of a new device, Apple’s stock results are not much better - on average, the share price fell 1.4% within a month after the release of the last seven device modifications. For comparison, the S&P 500 index for the same period added 0.4% in value.


Take a look, for example, at the market reaction to the latest modifications of the iPhone - 5S and 5C. On the day they were released, Apple shares fell 2.3%, and thirty days later, performance was even worse - minus 3.3%. It would be much more profitable to invest in the S&P 500 index, which grew by 0.7% on the day the company was presented, and in the next month added another 1.2%.


There is no doubt that over the long run, Apple stocks are a good investment option, and the iPhone has become a defining product for the company, according to Trefisalmost half of its value is due to the success of this gadget. Nevertheless, investors who consider it a good idea to buy shares in the company before the presentation of new devices in the hope of a quick jackpot can be quite disappointed in their strategy.


Despite the fact that during the presentation at the Flint Center, Apple stocks mainly grew, in the end, trading ended with a decrease in their value by 0.38%:


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