10 mobile gaming market trends in 2014
It is always interesting to predict what will happen in the future. The year 2014, for the mobile games industry at the peak of its development, will definitely be rich in events that can make serious changes in the alignment of forces in the market. The producers from KamaGames Studio decided to share their expectations from the coming year, reinforcing the forecasts with weighty, in our opinion, arguments.
Even market superheroes will not get the right to respite in 2014 ...
Last year was definitely the year of the clones. Companies cloned successful titles - both third-party and their own, squeezing the most out of a loyal audience. The current year has kept this trend in force, but its position has shaken sharply after a sharp surge in negative reviews from players.
The release of new original titles will shake the market, which has fallen into a certain strip of stagnation, if we talk about product diversity. In our opinion, innovation will manifest itself in completely new mechanics, as well as in rethinking old gameplay. And then again we will see dozens of clones of these new games. This is the way this market works.
What to do: Review old, long-forgotten toys. Analyze the mechanics that are now very popular. Try to come up with a game that would potentially be of interest to the mass player.
We’ll immediately make it clear that by “sociality” we mean not just integration with Facebook to use its viral channels. Games will be social in themselves. Interaction between users will be increasingly tight and active. Exchange of gifts and help each other, which has become almost the norm in games, will acquire a new layer of “transactions” between the players. In games, coop mechanics, joint raids and events, clan PvP and much more will appear more and more. Players want to play along with others.
What to do: Initially, lay social interaction in the gameplay, think it through more carefully. Stop thinking with categories of single toys.
Sorry for the pun, but the importance of the markets of individual countries will only grow. Individual countries will attract more and more developer attention. Previously, everyone was focused mainly on the United States. To enter the mass market of this country, millions of dollars of marketing investments are needed. In the conditions of fierce competition, you have to fight for the player with the “all-consuming” in terms of traffic King, Supercell and Kabam. The situation is complicated by the fact that the number of daily downloads of applications in the US on the iPhone has not been growing for more than 9 months! We are confident that developers will begin to focus on local markets. They will “go” to certain countries at least in the form of localizations (the average number of available locales for games from the TOP-100 will increase), and at most - by means of aggressive user engagement.
It is important to clarify that local markets will no longer be determined solely by geography. First of all, we mean messengers.
What to do: Examine the research results. Find the markets of the third (or second - although there is already crowded) waves with good dynamics of audience growth and money. Look for ways to get there.
Not only will Asian markets continue to grow at a tremendous pace (we mean both the number of players and revenues), so Asian games will massively move to the western side! There are enough successful examples now, but there will be even more of them! The myth of genre specificity will be finally dispelled!
Running games in the US is expensive, and in Asia it’s often not clear how. The mechanisms for attracting users are significantly different, there are subtleties and rules. To understand, you need a lot of time and money. Therefore, bundles of large Western and Eastern companies will appear that will exchange users and promote each other's games where they can do it well.
What to do: Explore Asian stores, seek contact with local developers and publishers.
Last year, Japan has already surpassed the United States in revenue from mobile applications. For one year, Japanese gamers began to pay more than 3 times. If this year South Korea shows the same growth, it is likely that the United States will take third place in the chart of countries with the highest level of players spending on purchases in mobile stores.
What to do: Learn to work with the Korean market!
No, don’t show us the bird that flies through the pipes. Similar examples have been and always will be. But in general, the trend of an independent game publisher is already rattling. Fichering gives incomprehensible one-time traffic, the cost of attracting a user continues to grow. In the current environment, indie developers simply cannot survive. If earlier “homegrown” games could have fired due to low competition in the niche, organics in stores or Apple’s features, now this will not happen. To succeed without a good team (1), real, not theoretical experience (2), money to develop and polish a game (3), considerable marketing budgets (4) will become impossible. It's time to understand and accept it.
What to do: The obvious way is to go to the publisher. And agree. The publication itself will have so many variations that the head will spin. But keep in mind that publishers need serious quality games, not just another puzzle of 40 levels that can be completed in a few days.
The market has passed that point of no return, when successful become even more successful, and the weak dies. Monsters whose top games are in the grossing of the most earned countries will only increase their influence. Every month they have millions (tens of millions!) Of free installations only due to their status, tops of grossing and incessant talk about their products. All these companies do not stop buying new players for any money and are ready to pay $ 7-10 for the installation. At the same time, they try not to give their users. Their goal is to gather as many players as possible. The launch of new titles allows you to monetize and keep your audience.
What to do: As an option, look for a way to be absorbed. Look carefully at new publishing programs - traffic, like blood, needs a system for circulation. And the newer the vessels (games) will be in it, the healthier the body will be.
The American company is now unofficially turning to the developers of the most successful games on Google Play, since Android is the only one. Amazon doesn’t particularly hide that they will be happy to see strong players who are offered new tools for developing (analytics and testing in one package) and promoting (which is worth advertising on a wake up screen) applications. Bezos has everything for the ecosystem, and 2014 is probably the last year when there is a chance to become “another” large platform. It will be interesting to observe this trend in light of the fact that the new CEO of Microsoft (has everyone learned his name?) Is also waiting for movement towards mobile. The companies' capabilities are incommensurable, and, nevertheless, the chances of success for Amazon, in our subjective opinion, are much higher.
What to do: Look at Amazon’s bizdev contacts on LinkedIn, you can even meet them at specialized conferences in Russia. The company is open to dialogue and very loyal to developers and their problems - at least declares it.
Analysis services will massively launch (possibly absorb) testing services (such as Testflight). Read back to front - the meaning will not change: tools useful for developers will increasingly come as a “single package”. So does Amazon, so does Testflight. One SDK - all services.
What to do: Choose! A lot of money will be “buried” in the market for such services in 2014. You just have to choose the best solution. But be careful: put on the wrong horse - and you will find the painful process of migration after the “death” of the next startup. And one more tip: look carefully with whom you share your data - sometimes such a nice start-up may have shareholders (investors, founders) associated with your competitors.
Just leave it here :-) There must be one crazy prediction!
Share and you your predictions - crazy and balanced. Speak out in the comments. It will be interesting to hear your opinion. We’ll check it in a year.
Even market superheroes will not get the right to respite in 2014 ...
1. Time for original games
Last year was definitely the year of the clones. Companies cloned successful titles - both third-party and their own, squeezing the most out of a loyal audience. The current year has kept this trend in force, but its position has shaken sharply after a sharp surge in negative reviews from players.
The release of new original titles will shake the market, which has fallen into a certain strip of stagnation, if we talk about product diversity. In our opinion, innovation will manifest itself in completely new mechanics, as well as in rethinking old gameplay. And then again we will see dozens of clones of these new games. This is the way this market works.
What to do: Review old, long-forgotten toys. Analyze the mechanics that are now very popular. Try to come up with a game that would potentially be of interest to the mass player.
2. Real sociality
We’ll immediately make it clear that by “sociality” we mean not just integration with Facebook to use its viral channels. Games will be social in themselves. Interaction between users will be increasingly tight and active. Exchange of gifts and help each other, which has become almost the norm in games, will acquire a new layer of “transactions” between the players. In games, coop mechanics, joint raids and events, clan PvP and much more will appear more and more. Players want to play along with others.
What to do: Initially, lay social interaction in the gameplay, think it through more carefully. Stop thinking with categories of single toys.
3. Local markets will become “global”
Sorry for the pun, but the importance of the markets of individual countries will only grow. Individual countries will attract more and more developer attention. Previously, everyone was focused mainly on the United States. To enter the mass market of this country, millions of dollars of marketing investments are needed. In the conditions of fierce competition, you have to fight for the player with the “all-consuming” in terms of traffic King, Supercell and Kabam. The situation is complicated by the fact that the number of daily downloads of applications in the US on the iPhone has not been growing for more than 9 months! We are confident that developers will begin to focus on local markets. They will “go” to certain countries at least in the form of localizations (the average number of available locales for games from the TOP-100 will increase), and at most - by means of aggressive user engagement.
It is important to clarify that local markets will no longer be determined solely by geography. First of all, we mean messengers.
What to do: Examine the research results. Find the markets of the third (or second - although there is already crowded) waves with good dynamics of audience growth and money. Look for ways to get there.
4. The dominance of Asia
Not only will Asian markets continue to grow at a tremendous pace (we mean both the number of players and revenues), so Asian games will massively move to the western side! There are enough successful examples now, but there will be even more of them! The myth of genre specificity will be finally dispelled!
Running games in the US is expensive, and in Asia it’s often not clear how. The mechanisms for attracting users are significantly different, there are subtleties and rules. To understand, you need a lot of time and money. Therefore, bundles of large Western and Eastern companies will appear that will exchange users and promote each other's games where they can do it well.
What to do: Explore Asian stores, seek contact with local developers and publishers.
5. The United States by the end of the year will be the third country in terms of revenue
Last year, Japan has already surpassed the United States in revenue from mobile applications. For one year, Japanese gamers began to pay more than 3 times. If this year South Korea shows the same growth, it is likely that the United States will take third place in the chart of countries with the highest level of players spending on purchases in mobile stores.
What to do: Learn to work with the Korean market!
6. Hard times for indie developers
No, don’t show us the bird that flies through the pipes. Similar examples have been and always will be. But in general, the trend of an independent game publisher is already rattling. Fichering gives incomprehensible one-time traffic, the cost of attracting a user continues to grow. In the current environment, indie developers simply cannot survive. If earlier “homegrown” games could have fired due to low competition in the niche, organics in stores or Apple’s features, now this will not happen. To succeed without a good team (1), real, not theoretical experience (2), money to develop and polish a game (3), considerable marketing budgets (4) will become impossible. It's time to understand and accept it.
What to do: The obvious way is to go to the publisher. And agree. The publication itself will have so many variations that the head will spin. But keep in mind that publishers need serious quality games, not just another puzzle of 40 levels that can be completed in a few days.
7. Successful companies will strengthen their position
The market has passed that point of no return, when successful become even more successful, and the weak dies. Monsters whose top games are in the grossing of the most earned countries will only increase their influence. Every month they have millions (tens of millions!) Of free installations only due to their status, tops of grossing and incessant talk about their products. All these companies do not stop buying new players for any money and are ready to pay $ 7-10 for the installation. At the same time, they try not to give their users. Their goal is to gather as many players as possible. The launch of new titles allows you to monetize and keep your audience.
What to do: As an option, look for a way to be absorbed. Look carefully at new publishing programs - traffic, like blood, needs a system for circulation. And the newer the vessels (games) will be in it, the healthier the body will be.
8. Amazon will make another attempt to conquer the market
The American company is now unofficially turning to the developers of the most successful games on Google Play, since Android is the only one. Amazon doesn’t particularly hide that they will be happy to see strong players who are offered new tools for developing (analytics and testing in one package) and promoting (which is worth advertising on a wake up screen) applications. Bezos has everything for the ecosystem, and 2014 is probably the last year when there is a chance to become “another” large platform. It will be interesting to observe this trend in light of the fact that the new CEO of Microsoft (has everyone learned his name?) Is also waiting for movement towards mobile. The companies' capabilities are incommensurable, and, nevertheless, the chances of success for Amazon, in our subjective opinion, are much higher.
What to do: Look at Amazon’s bizdev contacts on LinkedIn, you can even meet them at specialized conferences in Russia. The company is open to dialogue and very loyal to developers and their problems - at least declares it.
9. Tools all in one
Analysis services will massively launch (possibly absorb) testing services (such as Testflight). Read back to front - the meaning will not change: tools useful for developers will increasingly come as a “single package”. So does Amazon, so does Testflight. One SDK - all services.
What to do: Choose! A lot of money will be “buried” in the market for such services in 2014. You just have to choose the best solution. But be careful: put on the wrong horse - and you will find the painful process of migration after the “death” of the next startup. And one more tip: look carefully with whom you share your data - sometimes such a nice start-up may have shareholders (investors, founders) associated with your competitors.
10. Unity will buy someone very big
Just leave it here :-) There must be one crazy prediction!
Share and you your predictions - crazy and balanced. Speak out in the comments. It will be interesting to hear your opinion. We’ll check it in a year.