Why do people carry money in MMM 2011 and why this is not worth doing

This post is intended to convey the obvious reasons why this scam system will soon collapse to those who do not understand this.
Information does not claim absolute objectivity, however, all the schemes, typical patterns of behavior described in this article are not described from the air. I, in violation of the rules of the system (naturally for research purposes, and not in pursuit of free twenty bucks, I received only one bonus), several accounts were registered in MMM, in different cells. The picture is about the same everywhere.

UPD Final: in the text of the article and in the comments I indicated the alleged critical periods when MMM-2011 could collapse. She survived the first period, New Year's Eve, the second - the end of spring and the beginning of summer, fully paid off.

Under cat, a look at the system during its operation

First, a few numbers.

To create the illusion of openness, the system displays the operations of dozens of participants, their contributions. However, these tables do not show dozens expenses on up payments. Yes, and all this is presented in tables in which data analysis is rather difficult - it is forbidden to select cells, tables are divided into parts, loaded asynchronously. But using JavaScript (in the Google Chrome browser console), you can still process the numbers of interest. For example, this type of script was used to collect the amounts on user accounts:

var summ=0;$.each($('.x-grid3-cell'), function(i){if($('.x-grid3-cell')[i].children[0].innerHTML.match(/^[\d.]+$/) && $('.x-grid3-cell')[i].children[0].innerHTML !='0'){summ+=parseFloat($('.x-grid3-cell')[i].children[0].innerHTML)}});prompt('result',summ)

The picture is not quite complete, due to the fact that some users have hidden operations (but the contents of the wallets are not hidden, so that possible distortion of numbers goes in the direction optimistic for the system).
Another assumption, using the smallest rate of 20% to simplify the calculations, also shows a more optimistic option than it actually is. However, even so, the picture is very, very curious.

Actually the numbers. * ^{On 12/20/2011}

Number of people in the prepared "top ten": 101 people.
Amount on accounts, on “dollar” wallets: 5'137.31 “mmm” dollars, which, when multiplied by the current rate (* 7.13, the rate of twenty percent deposits), gives 36'629.02 “real” dollars.
Actually , there are dozens of dollars inside, excluding money that has leaked “up” in structure (read: they went to pay bonuses to old participants and pay for advertising): 7'159.74 dollars. Thus, the ratio of real money to the amounts in wallets in this top ten is ~ 0.1955
The amount in accounts, in “ruble” wallets: 92'039.89 “mmm” rubles (* 7.13 =656'244.4157 rubles).
Actually, there are tens of rubles inside (again, excluding expenses): 154'493.5988 , the ratio is ~ 0.235

Why do people carry money

The main argument of the system is the inflow of money much more than the outflow, which creates a constant “buffer” to the system. In the early stages of the system, this is even true. But only on the first, which already have long sunk into oblivion.

Why is it still carried?

• Great human thirst for freebies. Well, great! Get money for nothing. This is, after all, the plot of childhood dreams!
• Some make contributions for fun. As a rule, these are amounts that are not afraid to lose in any situation.
• Some make contributions out of obstinacy. All around say that you can’t do this, so you need to do it. The Forbidden fruit is sweet. Especially when it seems that there will be nothing for it. This is my money! What I want is what I do with them.
• And the most important thing. People who invested a certain amount, and after a while received it in an increased amount, put even more money. Typical examples that I personally encountered:
  A person invested 5'000, received 10'000. I was glad and invested 100'000.
  A man invested 10'000, received 40'000, occupied wherever he could, invested 500'000. (I barely restrained myself, so as not to tell my friend that he ... But I could restrain myself)
  And there are plenty of such examples even on the official website of the system.

Why you can’t do this if you don’t get tired of your money

In short, it is very similar to any of the gambling. Only a chance to win even less. Of course, some people who invested at the very beginning have a chance to withdraw more than they invested. But the excitement makes a person invest to the maximum.
The main argument of the “mutual assistance fund” is broken into the trash by any person, even with the rudiments of logical thinking. The inflow of money cannot constantly increase, and the outflow does exactly this all the time. It is expected that at some point, costs begin to exceed revenues and the system is sinking.

Factors that reduce the volume of cash inflows:

• Investors who have made deposits, of course, attract new funds, but they are doing this less and less actively. Everyone knows for themselves a certain amount, 20% (the minimum rate of the system, per month!) Of which is enough for expenses per month. After reaching this amount, most stop the infusion.
• The number of suckers on the planet is large, but still it is of course. At some point, new contributors will no longer appear in the system.
• People who are aware of the risks of the financial pyramid, stop any investments in the system, realizing that the system has long outgrown its safest period.

Factors that increase cash outflows:

• Those people who are aware of the risks of the financial pyramid, but who want to participate in it in order to stay in the black, are withdrawing their initial funds. They leave in it interest that is no longer secured by their real contributions, but which still accrue interest.
• People who have made some contribution and having waited for it to grow a little (and taking into account the unrealistic percentages of the system, not even “a little”, but only in words) begin to withdraw some amounts that increase each time.

Factors delaying the moment of the fall of the system:

• Long-term deposits.
  There are such deposits in the system for six months and a year. It is at their expense that the system extends its life a little. And if semi-annual payments were issued to people (an increase of deposits by about 57 times, but joyful hamsters put money back, already on an annual deposit), then no one is going to give annual deposits, where the amount increases by a crazy 130 times, and is not going to. It is quite obvious that a contribution of ten million rubles (there are no exact amounts anywhere, but the total amount of deposits clearly exceeds this figure) will increase by one billion and two hundred million over the year. And the system obviously will not collect such an amount in a year.
  “But not all the same they will immediately withdraw the entire amount!” Is a very obvious observation. Yes, not all. But keep in mind that most people will want to withdraw large amounts. Someone expects to buy a car, someone to improve housing. Even if we assume that each person will withdraw only 20% of their “winnings” (the game in quotes touches me on the official website), even the amount of money in the system is not enough.

Factors nearing the end of the system:

• Oddly enough, New Year.
  A lot of people will now withdraw money for gifts. It is not known how much money is in the system, but it is quite possible that the system may sag in the near future.
• Spring will be the year of the first annual contributions. It was in the spring that a large wave of depositors of initially available “three-month” deposits received their slightly increased money and, to celebrate, invested them back into the system for a year already. That is, these are deposits, provided not even 1/130 of their nominal value, but 1/260. Fun, right?
• Advertising. The system is advertised at the expense of participants.
• Translation Commissions. A large number of transfers are made inside the system, in most cases taxed by a commission on the part of payment systems
• Free $ 20 for every, even empty, member. System-wide is nothing. But you can eat an elephant if cut into small pieces and not limit yourself in time

Why the system will crash before its critical point

So, given all the above information, we can conclude that sooner or later the system will pass (but most likely have already passed) the equilibrium point between the inflows and outflows. Then it slowly goes out, squeezing out all the resources from itself.
But learn one more thing. Despite the assurances of the organizers that the system is decentralized, it still has a clear hierarchy. If one of the members of the cell wants to withdraw his money, but there is not enough money for the cell, the head of the cell, the ten's manager (the ten's manager at the lowest level of the hierarchy, then the centurions, thousandths, etc.) addresses the higher centenary (or thousandths, millionaires) , which requires money from another ten's manager. Thus, the system is very centralized. Nothing prevents the organizers of the pyramid from requesting a huge amount of "for payment", and thus pull out all the money in the system. And this is not to mention the fact that the organizers can withdraw huge sums quite “honestly”. After all, their participation in the system is closest to the birth of the pyramid, which means that their contributions have increased the most.