Everything will go according to plan

    After the collapse of the USSR, it was customary to consider “by default” that a planned economy is a completely unviable thing, and only the “invisible hand of the market” has the right to exist. And here the blockchain is in this article.


    In fact, the collapse of the socialist project was the result of a combination of various factors, but one of them, of course, was the gradual loss by the political leadership of the country of the controllability of the then existing economic system. Over the years, planning has become less and less adequate to reality, distortions in statistics have accumulated, so-called “postscripts” have become widespread, when frankly false information about the state of affairs in a particular sector of the economy came up the chain.

    As a result, any further planning was initially completely inadequate to the actual state of affairs and the real needs of the country. As a result, at one fine moment, the economy was not stalled, it began to openly wedge. In combination with the collapse in oil prices resulting from the energy crisis of the 1970s, and some other factors, the socialist project finally finished it off.
    For some time, the planned economy as a concept was considered by most economists to be completely unsustainable, all the more so as elation reigned in the world, which was perfectly reflected in its, to put it mildly, stupid book, The End of History and the Last Man) Francis Fukuyama. Say, everything, social experiments have ended, now until the end of time there will be only varieties of capitalism of varying degrees of liberalism, thank you all, everyone is free. True, it quickly turned out that this was a heavy delirium of the sick soul, and the most interesting was just beginning. However, a written admission that he does not understand anything that is happening, translated into many languages ​​and published in huge print runs does not prevent this citizen from continuing to be considered a specialist, analyst and intelligent person.


    “Socialism must return,” F. Fukuyama in an interview with New Statesman, October 2018

    Analyzing the causes of the degradation of the economic system of the countries of the socialist camp, most experts agree that if you try to describe this multicomponent phenomenon in a few words, you will get something like “problems with speed and quality feedback, lack of ability to control the distortion of key parameters. ” Many studies have indicated that if not for neglecting the automation capabilities of statistical data analysis, the controllability of the system could have been improved already then. But cybernetics in the USSR was not held in high esteem.

    There is some irony in that the concept of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) arose simultaneously with the collapse of the USSR. Gartner analyst Lee Wiley in 1990 predicted the emergence of scalable software systems designed for human resources, assets and financial management, focused on the continuous balancing and optimization of enterprise resources. How he looked into the water: now it’s already impossible to imagine a large structure, which is managed without the use of one or another ERP, and the level of automation is growing exponentially, and this process will accelerate further in the near future simultaneously with the introduction of artificial intelligence elements and probabilistic mechanisms in ERP analysis.

    Conceptually, ERP for a corporation is not much different from a similar complex for an entire country. As a matter of fact, the development of such systems is actively being carried out all over the world; individual elements of such decisions are being introduced in full swing in various areas of economic activity of states. While for the most part automation is going on by sectors, but the full integration of all state information circuits - from State services to the Platon system and the Unified State Automated Information System - is only a matter of time.

    At the same time, a technology appeared that makes it possible with almost one hundred percent probability to guarantee that all the data that will be stored in such a system is valid - a blockchain. At the same time, nothing prevents, within the framework of one ecosystem, by aggregating all the data related to the functioning of the state, spawn an arbitrary number of independent blockchain subsystems, which at the output will give information about what is happening in real time, and the data will succumb to arbitrary complexity of analysis and stratification again -so at the time of their occurrence.

    It is difficult to overestimate the possibilities that State Resource Planning will provide to the state leadership. Leaving aside the part that is about citizens (this is what is now being introduced in China) and focusing on its applied application in relation to the economy, it quickly becomes clear: after the accumulation of a sufficient amount of guaranteed reliable statistics, it will be possible to receive forecasts of this quality level that it’s quite possible to try to take some industry and make it planned. And then another.


    SenseTime is the world's largest AI startup (in September 2018 it closed round D for $ 1 billion). He already works in China, with the help of video cameras he recognizes faces and can assign a social rating. Just like in the third season of Black Mirror

    After the entire economy becomes digital, and the initial period of confusion associated with standardizing the information collected and debugging analysis algorithms ends, the leadership of the digitized country will begin to optimize economic processes. And, unlike its predecessors, it will be almost 100% likely to know which steps will lead to what results.

    The use of this toolkit does not imply an immediate change in the socio-economic formation, but this is not required: the formation will successfully cope with this itself. Digitization of the capitalist economy is a fundamental process, and it will be a mistake to consider that “digital technologies + capitalism” will yield “digital capitalism”. It is completely incomprehensible how this will look, but robotics, the possibility of total control of absolutely all social transactions, forecasting economic and political processes with a quality close to one, and, apparently, the start of applied transhumanization in a few decades will turn our world into something very -very strange. The name of this future socio-economic formation has not yet been invented.

    And by the way, in principle, it's time to start thinking about it.

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