What happened in the world of finance for the week # 27

Hi Geektimes! We continue to publish reports on major events in the world of finance and the stock market. The previous issue of the information digest can be found at this link .

Foreign exchange and commodity markets

Last week at the exchange trading started with the growth of the dollar above 53 rubles. Following this, for the first time since the end of April, the official rate set by the Central Bank overcame this mark . Euro at auction on Tuesday exceeded 59 rubles.

By the end of the week, the situation did not change, and the Russian currency continued to fall in price. On Friday, June 5, the official dollar exchange rate rose to 56.2463 rubles, and the cattle of the euro - to 63.3221 rubles.

According to analysts, the main negative factors affecting the ruble are the aggravation of the situation in Ukraine, oil price fluctuations (on Thursday, the Brent barrel was trading at $ 62.84), as well as the statement by Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina on increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves by $ 140 billion in the coming years for which the regulator will have to buy currency from the market.



Chart: RBC, according to the Moscow Exchange,

ITinvest chief economist Sergei Egishyants in his weekly review described the situation in the oil market:

Oil production in the US jumped due to the commissioning of a new field in the Gulf of Mexico - but on the former production is reduced; the decline in the number of rigs has also not yet ended - after a short respite, it resumed. Because oil behaved confidently - and especially the American WTI, which returned to the peaks; later, however, concerns about the OPEC summit dropped quotes; fear was not confirmed - but no special joys were received.

In turn, the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov said that his department proceeded from the fact that in the coming years oil would cost $ 50- $ 60 per barrel.

This year, according to the forecast, the oil price will be $ 50 per barrel, next year - $ 60. Therefore, I believe that around these parameters, oil prices will vary in the coming years.

Stock market

The weakening of the ruble and the negative external background led to the weakening of the main Russian stock indices. On Wednesday, for the first time since April, the RTS index fell below 950 points, and the MICEX index - to 1,623.49 points.

Subsequently, the ruble MICEX managed to win back some losses, ending Friday at 1,652.07 points, and the RTS amounted to 922.67 points.

ITinvest expert Vasily Oleinik on Friday June 5 described the current trends in the domestic stock market:

The game of the “last investor” in the last two weeks has changed to the game “buy the bottom, get the second as a gift” - this is the best way to describe the situation in the Russian and European stock markets. If the ruble index due to the fall of the national currency is still holding well, then the RTS currency index continues to swiftly dive down. The first goals of the summer at around 900 on the RTS index are almost complete, but the second goal at around 800 points remains relevant.



In addition to internal fundamental problems, external problems are now pouring oil into the fire. The risks of geopolitics due to the situation in Ukraine will only increase. At the same time, the situation on the oil market has worsened. On Friday, you should not expect pleasant surprises from the OPEC oil cartel. It is possible that OPEC will even increase quotas; such rumors and concerns now exist. On Thursday, it became known that Saudi Arabia raised selling prices for July for Asia, that is, the “guys” are clearly confident in their current policies and continue to gradually conquer the sales market and finish off “shale” in the United States.

Another risk factor for Russian investors is a review or extension of existing sanctions against Russia. [...]

Among Russian stocks in the near future there will also be no general dynamics. The fall of the Russian currency is a plus for exporters, so they will look slightly better than the market, but the banking sector in such conditions will again be less interesting to investors.

Overview: how are things in Russia and in the world

As part of the ITinvestTV project, Vasily Oleinik prepared an overview of the current situation in global stock markets:



That's all for today, thanks for watching. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy, write us a personal message and we will quickly fix it.

Cover photo: TASS