Prospects for the e-commerce market: growing to the side?



And so it all started promisingly ... The first months of 2014, even despite the obvious slowdown in the economy, promised good prospects for the growth of the e-commerce sector in Russia in general and cross-border trade in particular.

Judge for yourself: taking a confident first place in Europe in terms of the number of Internet users — at least 70 million were expected by the end of the year — we also had tremendous horizontal growth potential. Namely, due to the increase and degree of penetration of the Internet in the regions and the number of online purchases. Indeed, even in these indicators, we are significantly behind the leaders: with an average penetration level of 50%, only half of the users perform online trading operations. For example, in Europe and the USA, with a penetration level of 70-85%, the share of such users already exceeds 80%. Grow where, at least extensively - by increasing the number of customers.

Things are much more complicated with intensive growth - with the average check value ($ 55 in Russia) and a more revealing parameter - the average annual amount of online shopping costs per average user ($ 640 in Russia). Why more revealing? Yes, because its magnitude and changes year to year speak of fundamental parameters and trends - purchasing power, real disposable incomes and, to a large extent - the consumer confidence index. But with this, starting in the middle of the year, we started having problems that grew into a real panic by the end of December. And what is presented as a jump in consumer activity in December is actually just an unprecedented flight of the population from the ruble.

It is clear that not a single self-respecting analyst and expert will be guided by the figures and studies conducted by the FOM and published in the annual final report of the Association of Internet-Trading Companies of Russia. Meanwhile, these figures vigorously report on the unprecedented growth of the e-commerce sector in Russia during 2014 and especially on the growth of cross-border trade as much as 115%!

We will not give their calculations, the reasons for howls are understandable - Internet commerce is shifting to the gray zone, taxes, the budget does not receive customs payments, and so on. In short, urgently lowering the threshold of duty-free import to 25 euros, as in some European countries, and we will be happy.

However, they forget to say that prices in domestic online stores, which also have a lot of issues for taxation, rose from 40 to 80% over the period November-December 2014. Resellers do not want to lose a penny, but want to continue to live, as before, receiving up to 40% of the turnover and doing practically nothing creative for this.

Summarizing all of the above, the prospects for the growth of Internet commerce in monetary terms are more than vague, taking into account the devaluation of the ruble and the decline in real disposable income.

China's share in the overseas shopping sector is growing. But then again, over the year, the ruble / yuan exchange rate grew by almost 70%, even ahead of the 60% growth of the dollar - from 54 rubles for 10 yuan on 12/30/2013 to 91 rubles for 10 yuan on 12/30/2014. And while still wondering why China does not want to switch to settlements in national currencies! In yuan - please, and in rubles - God forbid. Friend and brother are called.

So, it grows, it grows. And delivery has improved - today, on average, is two weeks. And the percentage of lost packages is steadily decreasing. But the question is - for how long? The situation in our economy is more than deplorable and, of course, the current growth in orders for Alibaba from Russia can also be considered to some extent an escape from the ruble.

As for the western direction of online shopping, the situation here is more serious. The growth of the dollar and the euro by almost 50-60% hit the turnover of intermediary companies specializing in cross-border trade. But it is also clear that those who are used to buying high-quality branded clothes and shoes, the latest mobile gadgets are unlikely to change their minds and suddenly start shopping in China.

On the other hand, prices within Russia have already grown rapidly - here AKIT participants will not miss theirs. In this situation, it will still be difficult to find an alternative to Amazon, Ibey, Zappos and other state stores. Well, we, LiteMF , guarantee favorable delivery conditions and free Mail Forwarding.


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