So when will email die?

    The history of email began back in 1972 when Ray Tomlinson suggested using the “@” (at-sign) symbol to indicate messages that need to be transferred from one computer to another.

    Free communication with users anywhere in the world, ease of use and time saving, the ability to share files - all these advantages have helped email remain one of the most popular means of communication for the past 44 years.

    But recently, more and more information appears that email days are numbered. In his researchRadicati specialists have identified a downward trend in the number of personal emails sent. This is primarily due to the spread of social networks and the emergence of instant messengers, which are also called email killers. / Photo by TechStage / CC An article published in Fast Company magazine shows the charts according to which this recession began after 2008 and has continued since then. If we assume that the curve reached a peak in the middle of the life of email (and this peak occurred in 2008), then the use of mail for personal purposes will cease by approximately 2044.






    Perhaps by that time, users would use email only for business correspondence. Do not forget about the age factor of email users, a significant part of which today are people over 30 years old. This means that after about 50 years, when most of them will be gone, the distribution of email will naturally cease.

    However, in reality, the use of e-mail is still an integral part of our communication, and in the near future alternative tools will not be able to supplant it. According to the results of the same Radicati study, by the end of 2017, the total number of email accounts will exceed 4.9 billion, which is 1 billion more than in 2013.

    In addition, the authors predict that the number of business emails sent daily will increase by 7-8%, and the number of created accounts for business correspondence by 23-24%.

    In general, the volume of electronic correspondence will increase by 3%, due to several reasons:

    Changing user habits is not easy


    Users will not want to switch to a new communication system if in general e-mail suits them. Yes, we all complain about crowded mailboxes and spam, but bots and instant messaging services will not replace email until they become more common and easy to use.

    “When conducting a study of the user audience for Betterteam (a recruitment platform for small businesses), it quickly became clear that our hiring specialists prefer to use their email rather than our special system to approve or reject candidates.

    We had to integrate this program with email. Now our customers can reject the candidate by clicking on the button in the letter so as not to enter our system, ”says Adam Seabrook, cofounder of Betterteam .

    Email does not stand still


    Today we have at our disposal a huge number of tools for the effective management of electronic mailings. For example, the Gmail Priority Inbox service automatically sorts emails into categories, and Unroll.me allows you to combine news feeds and advertisements into a common list, as well as unsubscribe from unnecessary newsletters.

    Thanks to the improvement of filtering systems, the spam that our mailboxes were littered with is no longer a problem, while social networks are full of intrusive ads. According to Harvard Business Review statistics , each user receives 11,680 letters per year. At the same time, 74% of them refer to unwanted correspondence, which users do not even notice, since these letters are immediately sent to spam.

    Asynchronous communication is very important.


    Of course, sometimes it is much easier to give a short answer in the messenger or make a comment on social networks, but when it comes to more serious issues that require time to think, we still prefer email.

    “Email is beautiful because communication is asynchronous. When you receive an email, no one expects you to reply in the same second. You can take a day to ponder, ponder the message and give a balanced answer. If the letter was sent simply to transmit information, you may not reply at all.

    Synchronous communication in writing (SMS, chats, etc.) takes place, but only if the real-time mode is fundamentally important ... but in most cases this is not true ", - said director of SafeGraph Oren Hoffman (Auren Hoffman)

    Email killers depend on her


    Despite the fact that social networks are recognized as "killers" of email, a study by the American company Nielsen showed that in reality they contribute to its wider use.

    Currently, most social networks and services offer registration via email. If you forget the password for your account, you can restore access again using email (in this graph from Nielsen you can see that active users of social networks work more with email).

    The creators of the new services claim that their technology is significantly superior to email. For example, the advantage of Slack is the ability to reduce the volume of electronic correspondence. This service is great for working within small businesses and startups.

    However, despite the fact that Slack sends push notifications about activity in the project, if the user is offline, notifications and personal messages are sent to e-mail. Many other services have a similar work algorithm (not to mention registering by email).

    Email is a common communication standard.


    There is a certain risk associated with communication tools that are supported by relatively small development teams: if Slack or Telegram leave the market tomorrow, what will happen to the data that is stored there? Most likely, they will be lost.

    Open e-mail standards, such as SMTP, as well as the reliability and long-term presence of the services themselves on the market, guarantee that email will be a safe communication option for many years.

    “She [email] will not die in the foreseeable future. Some technologies will make it even more useful, but definitely will not replace it. What is the reason for this? Email is not regulated by one particular company. It is regulated by protocols, ”explains Kun Chen , a former Microsoft lead engineer.

    E-mail has properties that other modern communication technologies cannot yet boast of: it is a reliable and affordable tool on different devices.

    Unlike most new services, email is an open system: you can seamlessly send a message from your Gmail email address to your friend who uses AOL. And if you decide to create a new account in e-mail, you will have the opportunity to transfer all correspondence from the old box to the new one.

    Additional material on the topic in the blog Pechkin-mail'a:

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    So when will email die?

    • 0.5% Already, I do not use 4
    • 1.1% I plan to move away from email in a couple of years 8
    • 2.6% After 5-7 years, it’s definitely not needed 18
    • 7.2% Email will be a bit of a vinyl record 49
    • 88.3% Will work unchanged for more than 50 years 599

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