# RF Communications Strategy to 2035: Cross-Border Link Capacity to Grow to 38.5 Tbit/s
Russia's major backbone operators plan to increase cross-border link capacity from 7 Tbit/s in 2022 to 20.3 Tbit/s by 2030 and 38.5 Tbit/s by 2035. This is outlined in the "Communications Industry Development Strategy until 2035." Industry experts view the targets as technically feasible but note they hinge on demand, the regulatory environment, and geopolitics.
Opinions of Key Operators
Olga Makarova, MTS Director of Commercial Management, said scaling capacity is feasible but depends on legislative changes and the geopolitical situation. It's not about having the capacity—it's about launching it on time.
Maksim Akinin from Rostelecom said Russian networks have plenty of border crossings, and the challenge is pinpointing the right time to activate them. The average annual addition of new capacity is about 2 Tbit/s.
Sergey Yakovlev from TTK confirmed the growth pace: at current rates, capacity will organically hit 21 Tbit/s by 2030.
Alexander Khudyakov from RETN said the company has already rolled out 10 Tbit/s in transit backbones. The 20 Tbit/s target is realistic, but demand hasn't materialized yet.
VimpelCom and MegaFon representatives stressed that modern tech lets operators scale existing infrastructure without massive per-operator investments. They'll base expansion on traffic trends.
Konstantin Lukin from SuperTel added that domestic vendors are ready to supply gear for 20–40 Tbit/s capacities and beyond.
Activity on the Belarusian Direction
Cross-border links are developing most dynamically along the Belarus border. In 2025, Belarus's NCOT brought two backbones online—12 Tbit/s and 8 Tbit/s. Construction, including tie-ins to Russian, Polish, and German operators, took less than a year.
Elena Slabko from Beltelecom highlighted no barriers to scaling. Networks span 230,000 km, with 10–13 Tbit/s in spare capacity.
- Key indicators of Belarusian projects:
- 12 Tbit/s: new backbone with geo-redundancy.
- 8 Tbit/s: second line, record-fast rollout.
- Plans: additional backbones for greater reliability.
Infrastructure Challenges and Modernization Plans
Russia's total fiber-optic line length is 1.3 million km, with 85% of traffic on European routes. Most lines date to 1995–2005, utilization tops 75%, and average lifespan is 20–25 years.
Annual traffic growth exceeds 25%. By 2035, much of the network running Western-vendor DWDM gear—with constrained supplies—will need replacing.
Switching to domestic solutions means rebuilding lines. Public-private partnership projects backed by the National Wealth Fund are on the table:
- Moscow–Beijing (6,800 km).
- Moscow–Delhi (5,900 km).
- Trans-Caspian route (315 km).
- Murmansk–Vladivostok (12,600 km).
Over 20% of China–Europe traffic routes through Russia (TTK). Fiber-optic line construction costs are climbing amid production shortfalls and pricier optical fiber.
The Ministry of Digital Development and Roskomnadzor oversee connections via government portals for construction and upgrade permits.
Key Points
- Strategy targets: 20.3 Tbit/s by 2030 (+190% from 2022), 38.5 Tbit/s by 2035 (+450%).
- Rollout pace: 2 Tbit/s per year, organic growth to 21 Tbit/s by 2030.
- Main challenges: demand shortfall, equipment sanctions, fiber-optic line replacements.
- Hot spots: Belarus (20 Tbit/s new capacity), Eastern plans.
- Regulatory angle: Roskomnadzor permits, TSPU ramp-up to 954 Tbit/s by 2030.
— Editorial Team
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