Creating a single operator 5G will help save several hundred billion rubles

Source: YVES HERMAN / Reuters

According to experts of the Institute for Analysis of Enterprises and Markets of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), the creation of a single infrastructure operator 5G will make it possible to reduce the costs of developing fifth-generation networks from 360-480 billion rubles. five years to 161--214 billion rubles.

According to the researchers, the calculations are based on world forecasts of the economic effect from the introduction of 5G, as well as on traffic growth indicators in networks of previous generations. The single telecom operator, having become a monopolist, will be introducing 5G approximately 1-2 years later than operators competing with each other, as reported by Vedomosti,would have done.

At the same time, a slower traffic growth rate is predicted. In addition, the country's economy will suffer from the slow deployment of 5G infrastructure. Direct and indirect losses in five years after the introduction of 5G by a single operator will be from 20 to 250 billion rubles. Other losses include lost fees for services that operators and their partners cannot provide.

To reduce the negative impact of a slower 5G deployment, operators can share objects of independently created infrastructure objects. The creation of a 5G operator has been discussed by officials and market players since last year. The need to create a single operator is explained by the fact that it may not be enough for all operators required for 5G frequencies.

At the same time, FAS opposes such a project. Representatives of the regulator consider the possibility of creating a single operator the worst of all possible scenarios. FAS, in particular, does not like the idea of ​​creating a single player, endowed with resources, which it will distribute to competitors and other market participants.

The Ministry of Communications and Mass Communications says that in the “ideal world of the free radio frequency spectrum”, the competition of networks instead of merging them is the best option. But if the free range is limited, it is more logical to compare the economic efficiency of the state single operator and the single operator, which the companies themselves will create. The ministry does not have a forecast of economic benefits and losses.

Opinions of telecom operators are divided. Some companies believe that competition is better than a conglomerate, the second part claims the opposite.