2013 Gartner Technology Maturity Cycle

    The research company Gartner is well known in the market for information technology analytics. I would even say - is one of the leaders in this market. Every year she uploads an extremely interesting schedule, called the "Technology Maturity Cycle" (in English Hype cycle, or literally - "hype cycle"). On this graph, in chronological order, technologies are laid out that are either ready for use or just entering the research phase.

    This is what the 2013 schedule looks like (completed as of July 2012):

    So, the schedule is divided into five parts. The first is the “technological trigger”. Those. the time when technology is just beginning to exist (at least in the form of an idea). Stage two - "the peak of high expectations." Those. The time period when the public begins to learn about technology. At the top of this peak, technology is spoken by everyone on every corner, and even the tabloid press begins to write about it as an almost accomplished fact. What follows is a “chasm of disappointment", i.e. the time when it turns out that in reality technology allows you to do something completely different from what you wanted from it. Not all are selected from this abyss. Well, then comes the "slope of education" and the "plateau of productivity", in fact - the last stages before the mass introduction.

    In addition, the graph shows the approximate timelines for introducing the technology. White and blue circles - from 2 to 5 years before implementation. Blue circles - from 5 to 10 years. The yellow triangles are more than 10 years old, and the crossed out red circles are the things that died before reaching the consumer.

    As you can see, voice recognition systems (hi Siri and Google Now), biometric systems for recognizing people and media tablets (hi Amazon Kindle) have almost reached the mass adoption. In the abyss are virtual worlds (while Second Live) and home health monitors. At the peak of expectations, 3D printing, BYOD and wireless power transmission rule the ball (by the way, another wireless technology - payment of bills by NFC began to descend and rushes to the "abyss"). Gamification, Big data and others are on the way to the “peak”, and holographic displays, 3D-printing of organs and quantum computers are just beginning their ascent.
    As usual, it’s interesting to compare how these graphs looked in the past. Here is the maturity cycle of the 2011 sample ( in Russian / eng) NFC payments were just at the peak of expectations.

    And here is what he looked like in 2006:

    Apparently, the hits are pretty accurate. Therefore, these studies can be considered as a vector of technology. At least, they answer well the question of when and what exactly we will be able to see in the future.

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