Once again about statistics, Nokia, Elop and burning memo

    Yesterday on Habré the topic of love for Elop was published: Nokia, Effect of Elop and a burning platform .

    In which it was convincingly, with the use of statistics, that Elop ruined Nokia. Specifically, with the help of this graph:

    Type - look, look, Elop came in September 2010 and broke everything.

    In that topic I acted (rather unsuccessfully) as Elop's lawyer. Unfortunately, my reasoning somehow did not impress the habra public, which only let me postalgize for my Nokiev uberdevices.

    Ok, let’s try from the other side. Under the cut - another, no less interesting schedule.

    This is the same chart of market shares of different smartphone axes, only now - for all market participants.

    I would like to draw your attention to the dark blue column of Windows Mobile.

    As you can see, smartphones on Win Mobile occupied a dominant position in 2006 - 37% of the market. In 2007, the situation only strengthened - 42%! And only one small detail violated harmony - the rapid growth of iOS by 11%.

    Tell me what happened next? Further, iOS + Android in two years turned 42% into a miserable 7%. At the same time, MS did not sit idly by and released an update for the update - 6.1 in 2008, 6.5 in 2009. At the same time, MS did not issue any burning memo - Windows Phone 7 was announced only in 2010.

    Well, how did it somehow help MS ? Of course not. The WinMobile platform died in 2007, and nothing could save her from death. MS apparently realized this fact in 2009 and began to prepare a new platform in 2010.

    Let's get back to Nokia, Elop and the fantastic popularity of Symbian. Look at the WinMobile charts and tell me honestly: do you think that Symbian had at least one chance not to repeat the fate of WinMobile?

    What kind of onolitegi are they broadcasting here that in 2010 Nokia had everything chocolate? Show them the left side of the graph - go ahead the triumphal success of Win Mobile 6.5.

    Ok, we’ve sorted out Symbian. The second complaint against Elop is that he ditched MeeGo. Ok, look at the timings again.

    Android has been developed like this since 2005. The first beta is November 2007, the release is September 2008, the first relatively popular and stable release is 1.6, September 2009. Then in 2009 Android won back a significant part of the market - 9%. In total, it took Google 4 years of development (of which two years since the beta release) in order to bring Android to the market.

    Well, now look at the MeeGo timeline:
    May 2010 - release 1.0, which is more correctly called not even beta, but alpha. (The review on Habré ); in this version of the “tachevye" controls (Handset UX) yet.
    October 2010 - more or less full beta for phones with Handset UX.

    In total, if the development went at the pace of Google, then a full release would be expected at the end of 2011, and a more or less stable popular branch at the end of 2012. That is, Just in time for today, Nokia would appear in noticeable numbers on MeeGo. If, of course, Nokia did not go bankrupt.

    Now the Windows Phone taymlan:

    development began presumably in 2009 (MS kept a deathly silence, apparently in the hope that this would somehow help the dying WinMobile).
    announcement - March 2010
    release - September 2010.

    Ok. Imagine yourself in the place of Elop in October 2010.

    MeeGo somehow finally released a more or less complete beta for phones. Therefore, a stable version should be expected in two years, at best by Christmas 2012.

    MS released an official release in September 2010. Therefore, a more or less stable version will be in a year, in the fall of 2011. (Looking ahead - it happened, release 7.5 of Mango took place in the fall of 2011, no matter how MS tried to release it earlier.)

    So, the choice was such:

    (a) stick your head in the sand, three years to marvel at the drop in the share of Symbian and declare bankruptcy
    (b) invest everything in MeeGo, somehow survive two years and in 2013, maybe finally get your stable High-End platform
    (in ) partner with MS, survive 2011 and return to the big game in 2012.

    We look at the chart above. In 2011, WinPhone managed to bring to the level of Android in 2008 - 2%. If WinPhone went according to the Android schedule, it would have scored 9% in 2012; in fact - only 5.2%. This is the price of three years of flapping ears.

    With a three-year backlog, Nokia returned to the smartphone market. Did she have another year to wait for MeeGo? But where, tell me ?!

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