Intel Prediction - Transition to 5nm technology will allow Gordon Moore's law to hold out for at least another decade
Original source : http://dvice.com/archives/2012/09/intel-5nm-proce.php
In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, predicted that the number of transistors on microprocessor chips would double every two years, and this forecast affected the next ten years. But more than fifty years have passed, and the law of Gordon Moore remains true. And, according to the plans and forecasts of Intel specialists, it will remain true for at least another decade.
Currently, microprocessors manufactured using 22 nm technology can be purchased. 22nm transistors are as tiny as rhinovirus, they are much smaller than 32nm transistors, which are the previous generation transistors. But now, Intel is starting to talk about its 10-year plans, which include reducing the size of the transistor to 5 nm.
The next step after 22 nm technology will be 14 nm technology, and the first processors manufactured using this technology will have to appear next year. Processors with transistors at 10 nm should "become a big step" in 2015, and after that a series of 7 nm and 5 nm technologies will come. For all this time, the cost of manufacturing each transistor will have to decrease at least 10 times, and the efficiency and speed of new computing systems is difficult to even predict at present.
Intel representatives do not disclose exact dates in their plans, which they talk about as if they are one hundred percent sure that they will be able to manufacture new tiny transistors and, most importantly, make them work as they should.
According to Intel’s senior fellow at Mark Bohr, “Technology“ bins “companies are full of research, the implementation dates of which extend tens of years ahead, going through stages 10, 7 and 5 nm technology. Currently, we already have workable solutions at 10 nm, and I am sure that in the near future such solutions will appear for 7 and 5 nm transistors. "
These new solutions that Marc Bohr mentions may be something different from true silicon-based technologies. It may be the use of graphene or something completely new and exotic, but knowing the whole history of Intel, we can safely assume that Intel will make all this happen without fail, because this is the law, the law of Gordon Moore.