Oxford scientists: the probability that we are alone in the observable part of the universe is much higher than zero

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    The question of whether a person is single in the Universe stirs the minds of scientists, writers and ordinary people for hundreds of years. For the last half century, mankind has been trying to get an answer to this question by observing different regions of the cosmos and then analyzing the results of their observations. One of the most ambitious programs is SETI , which was launched in 1959 of the last century. Unfortunately, there are still no positive results (that is, the answer "no, we are not alone"), this program has not brought.

    However, there is hope. Indeed, for all the time of observation, man has studied a tiny region of space in the scale of the Universe. It can be assumed that brothers in mind exist without knowing anything about “relatives” who want to communicate with them. On the other hand, we have examined thousands of exoplanets and tens of thousands of star systems. But there were no signals or any other signs that could indicate the presence of mind. Why is that? According to scientists from Oxford, probably because there are simply no intelligent beings in the observable, observable region of the Universe. And if they do, then they do not yet have the technology that would allow them to declare their existence to many Parsecs. Well, or our own level of technology is not enough to catch the signals of intelligent beings.

    Here you can recall the “Fermi paradox” - in the 50s a scientist asked colleagues that if aliens exist, then “Where are they all?”. In other words, why do we not see brothers in mind and do not receive any news from them?

    Somewhat later, Frank Donald Drake formulated his famous equation , which seems to suggest that intelligent life is fairly common in the Universe. True, such an optimistic statement is made on the basis of several modified parameters of the original equation.

    It was changed by the famous scientist Carl Sagan and his followers. So, according to their point of view, the presence of a large number of extraterrestrial civilizations is “practically guaranteed” (by the way, the eminent Soviet scientist Shklovsky IS adhered to the same point of view ). Proponents of another point of view argue that humanity is the only technologically advanced civilization in the observable part of the Milky Way.

    As for the Drake equation, according to him, in the Milky Way there can be from 1000 to 100 million civilizations created by intelligent beings. The scatter, as we see, is huge. The fact is that the equation itself can be interpreted in different ways, choosing different factors at its discretion and adding some new elements. Proponents of the point of view of the prevalence of life and mind in space may overestimate some parameters, those who consider humanity unique - on the contrary, underestimate.

    A team of Oxford scientists decided to supplement the Drake equationin order to find a compromise between him and the Fermi paradox. The scientist Jorge Soriano and his colleagues believe that far from all the planets are suitable for life and even more so for the existence of a reasonable race. In addition, some civilizations can be destroyed for a number of reasons, such as the catastrophic use of powerful weapons or galactic catastrophes (take at least a supernova explosion). In many cases, the stars periodically flash, sterilizing planets that are close to them.

    Whatever it was, but scientists have supplemented the Drake equation with two parameters at once. The first is the percentage of technically advanced civilizations that have interstellar communications, as well as the period of existence of these civilizations.

    The results of calculations using the new formula show that technologically advanced civilizations that are able to establish contact with humans certainly exist. But there are only about 0.5% of the total number of potentially existing civilizations. Scientists say that in a region whose diameter is comparable to the radius of the galactic disk there can be at least one civilization that should be able to establish communication with humanity. The duration of the existence of such a civilization, apparently, may be about 300 thousand years.

    In general, the probability that we are alone in the foreseeable segment of the Universe ranges from 38 to 85%. And from 53 to 99.6% the probability that we are alone in our galaxy.

    Actually, the current calculations of scientists are just a guess. This is a hypothesis, based on very few empirical facts, there are much more assumptions and arguments that "can be, if ...". So you can not despair and hope that sooner or later we will receive a signal from a friendly (hopefully) civilization.

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