December 1, 2010 at 18:56Lessons from 10 years of technical reviews
- Transfer
It was 10 years ago that week that I led a technical column in The New York Times!
Among all the decades of technological progress, the latter was particularly unbelievable. Since I wrote my first article in 2000, the world of technological innovations has not so much evolved, but has rushed forward with cosmic speed. Think of today's familiar technologies that didn’t even exist 10 years ago: HDTV, Blu-ray, GPS, Wi-Fi, Gmail, YouTube, iPod, iPhone, Kindle, Xbox, Wii, Facebook, Twitter, Android, online music stores, video streaming, etc., etc.
Now is a great time to look back and confirm - or refute the forecasts made during the first decade of the 21st century.
Some technologies do not replace others - they complement each other.You can’t imagine how tired I am of listening to endless prophets predicting the release of the “iPhone killer” or the “Kindle killer”. Listen guys: the history of consumer technology is a story of addition, not substitution.
Television was supposed to kill the radio. DVDs were supposed to replace movie theaters. Instant coffee was about to become a substitute for freshly brewed coffee.
But here's the thing: this never happens. Want to know the future? Please: there will be iPhones and there will be phones on Android. There will be satellite radio and there will be AM / FM channels. There will be paper books and there will be electronic books. Some things do not replace others.
Sooner or later, all information will be provided upon request.Over the past 10 years, there has been a sharp transition from storing information on paper and tape to the consumption of data in digital form. Music, television programs, films, photographs, and now also books and newspapers. We want to have convenient and quick access to them from anywhere.
Our grandchildren will laugh at how representatives of the current generation, to watch a movie, got into a "car", went to a "store" and rented a plastic "disk", which still needed to be "returned".
For some people, self-esteem is directly related to the technique they use. Being the author of technical reviews is like standing on the stage: reader reviews are instant, emotional and overwhelming.
All these years, I was struck by the intensity of passions that accompanied these reviews. One guy wrote in 2006, for example: “It seems to me that you need to be fired for current pretentious articles from your (sort of) respected newspaper. Yes, if you think I'm working in microsoft or I'm illiterate, know that I'm 15 years old! ” Over time, I realized what was happening. Modern devices evoke strong personal affection. Your phone, camera and music player speak for you, reflect your views on life and your character. It is not surprising that some perceive criticism of the devices they have acquired as criticism of their own choice and, therefore, criticism of themselves.
Which leads us to the following conclusion:
People pass information through a filter of their own emotions.Some cultural differences in America have an ancient history and have no solution. The right to bear arms. Abortion Justin Bieber (popular Canadian singer - approx. Per.).
However, the emotions raging in the field of technology are not weaker. You cannot use the words "Apple", "Microsoft", or "Google" in a sentence without causing an emotional response.
When I tested iPad, I tried out a new article format: it consisted of two separate reviews of the same length. One was positive, the other negative. I wanted to show that you can look at this device in different ways, depending on your technical level and experience.
But in the comments, Apple haters laughed the “love letter” I wrote to iPad, and Apple fans were furious when they read my “smashing” article. Surprisingly, these two camps completely ignored the part of the article that coincided with their opinion.
It is not so difficult to predict which technology will win the market and which will not. The best thing in my work is the opportunity to meet truly amazing technologies and attract everyone's attention to them. Some examples: GrandCentral, Readability, Line2, the Canon S95, LightScoop, OpenDNS. I admit: I feel secret pleasure when I find out that the servers of some small company could not withstand the influx of visitors at the next Pog-effect.
The truth is that it is usually not at all difficult to distinguish winners from losers. Anyone can do it. Some failures took on epic proportions.
There was such a thing - Microsoft Spot Watch (2003). This wireless wristwatch displayed information about your affairs and messages - but it cost $ 10 a month, required daily charging and did not work outside of your city, unless you filled out an application on the site in advance.
Or Akimbo (2005), a set-top box for television, with which you could access any program - any, from a tiny catalog. The selection consisted of AdvenTV, “the first Turkish on-demand program,” Veg TV (“recipes for vegetarian dishes”) and Skyworks, “videotaping Britain’s most beautiful views from a helicopter.”
Incredibly, not a single employee of that company seemed to understand that their king entered the market completely naked.
Some ideas will never come. The same "revolutionary" ideas appear from year to year.
Have mercy, people, nobody needs videophones! When we talk on the phone, we don’t want to think about looks. We want to remove the dishes from the table, roll our eyes, addressing those who are sitting next to us, pick their nose. Of course, when we want to show a newborn baby, we use Skype or FaceTime. But not every time. If you try to sell us a phone specially tailored for video calls, you will fail.
Teenagers don’t need “communicators” who can only send text messages (AT&T Ogo, Sony Mylo, Motorola V200). People don’t need a browser on the TV (WebTV, AOLTV, Google TV).
And forget about “Internet-connected refrigerators” (3Com Audrey, Netpliance i-Opener, Virgin Webplayer). No one will ever buy a single such thing.
Forget about timeless technology - no one will last longer than a year. Of the thousands of devices that I tested over these 10 years, only a few still exist in the form in which they appeared.
Oh, of course you can recall the gadgets whose descendants are still here: iPod, BlackBerry, Internet Explorer, and so on. But the skin is covered with goosebumps when you think about the millions of dollars and man hours that have been spent on developing the now-deceased technologies: Olympus M-Robe, PocketPC, Smart Display, MicroMV, MSN Explorer, Aibo. All these PlaysForSure players, handhelds, GPS modules, on which you need to upload maps through a computer.
Everyone knows that this is the way of any technology. The trick is to come to terms with the fact that you are buying an obsolete item and not feel disappointed when it is removed from production next year.
(Another trick is to know about the cycle in advance: new cameras in September and February, new iPods in September, new iPhones in July ...)
No one can keep up with the development of technology. No matter where I go, I always find the same reaction to the development of the consumer device market: too many new products appear too quickly. It is impossible to keep up with all the trends, to know exactly what you need to buy, not to feel in the tail of progress.
It's true. There have never been such grandiose changes in the history of the period. It’s impossible to keep up with everything.
Finally, I will reveal a little secret: I also do not always have time. Damn it, it's my job to keep abreast of everything! And even I feel like I'm trying to drink from a fire hose. I try my best - I read blogs, flip through magazines, attend conferences and listen to PR managers - but sometimes I feel like trying to balance on top of a tsunami.
In other words, if you feel overwhelmed, then you are not alone, and this is normal. Just relax.
Among all the decades of technological progress, the latter was particularly unbelievable. Since I wrote my first article in 2000, the world of technological innovations has not so much evolved, but has rushed forward with cosmic speed. Think of today's familiar technologies that didn’t even exist 10 years ago: HDTV, Blu-ray, GPS, Wi-Fi, Gmail, YouTube, iPod, iPhone, Kindle, Xbox, Wii, Facebook, Twitter, Android, online music stores, video streaming, etc., etc.
Now is a great time to look back and confirm - or refute the forecasts made during the first decade of the 21st century.
Some technologies do not replace others - they complement each other.You can’t imagine how tired I am of listening to endless prophets predicting the release of the “iPhone killer” or the “Kindle killer”. Listen guys: the history of consumer technology is a story of addition, not substitution.
Television was supposed to kill the radio. DVDs were supposed to replace movie theaters. Instant coffee was about to become a substitute for freshly brewed coffee.
But here's the thing: this never happens. Want to know the future? Please: there will be iPhones and there will be phones on Android. There will be satellite radio and there will be AM / FM channels. There will be paper books and there will be electronic books. Some things do not replace others.
Sooner or later, all information will be provided upon request.Over the past 10 years, there has been a sharp transition from storing information on paper and tape to the consumption of data in digital form. Music, television programs, films, photographs, and now also books and newspapers. We want to have convenient and quick access to them from anywhere.
Our grandchildren will laugh at how representatives of the current generation, to watch a movie, got into a "car", went to a "store" and rented a plastic "disk", which still needed to be "returned".
For some people, self-esteem is directly related to the technique they use. Being the author of technical reviews is like standing on the stage: reader reviews are instant, emotional and overwhelming.
All these years, I was struck by the intensity of passions that accompanied these reviews. One guy wrote in 2006, for example: “It seems to me that you need to be fired for current pretentious articles from your (sort of) respected newspaper. Yes, if you think I'm working in microsoft or I'm illiterate, know that I'm 15 years old! ” Over time, I realized what was happening. Modern devices evoke strong personal affection. Your phone, camera and music player speak for you, reflect your views on life and your character. It is not surprising that some perceive criticism of the devices they have acquired as criticism of their own choice and, therefore, criticism of themselves.
Which leads us to the following conclusion:
People pass information through a filter of their own emotions.Some cultural differences in America have an ancient history and have no solution. The right to bear arms. Abortion Justin Bieber (popular Canadian singer - approx. Per.).
However, the emotions raging in the field of technology are not weaker. You cannot use the words "Apple", "Microsoft", or "Google" in a sentence without causing an emotional response.
When I tested iPad, I tried out a new article format: it consisted of two separate reviews of the same length. One was positive, the other negative. I wanted to show that you can look at this device in different ways, depending on your technical level and experience.
But in the comments, Apple haters laughed the “love letter” I wrote to iPad, and Apple fans were furious when they read my “smashing” article. Surprisingly, these two camps completely ignored the part of the article that coincided with their opinion.
It is not so difficult to predict which technology will win the market and which will not. The best thing in my work is the opportunity to meet truly amazing technologies and attract everyone's attention to them. Some examples: GrandCentral, Readability, Line2, the Canon S95, LightScoop, OpenDNS. I admit: I feel secret pleasure when I find out that the servers of some small company could not withstand the influx of visitors at the next Pog-effect.
The truth is that it is usually not at all difficult to distinguish winners from losers. Anyone can do it. Some failures took on epic proportions.
There was such a thing - Microsoft Spot Watch (2003). This wireless wristwatch displayed information about your affairs and messages - but it cost $ 10 a month, required daily charging and did not work outside of your city, unless you filled out an application on the site in advance.
Or Akimbo (2005), a set-top box for television, with which you could access any program - any, from a tiny catalog. The selection consisted of AdvenTV, “the first Turkish on-demand program,” Veg TV (“recipes for vegetarian dishes”) and Skyworks, “videotaping Britain’s most beautiful views from a helicopter.”
Incredibly, not a single employee of that company seemed to understand that their king entered the market completely naked.
Some ideas will never come. The same "revolutionary" ideas appear from year to year.
Have mercy, people, nobody needs videophones! When we talk on the phone, we don’t want to think about looks. We want to remove the dishes from the table, roll our eyes, addressing those who are sitting next to us, pick their nose. Of course, when we want to show a newborn baby, we use Skype or FaceTime. But not every time. If you try to sell us a phone specially tailored for video calls, you will fail.
Teenagers don’t need “communicators” who can only send text messages (AT&T Ogo, Sony Mylo, Motorola V200). People don’t need a browser on the TV (WebTV, AOLTV, Google TV).
And forget about “Internet-connected refrigerators” (3Com Audrey, Netpliance i-Opener, Virgin Webplayer). No one will ever buy a single such thing.
Forget about timeless technology - no one will last longer than a year. Of the thousands of devices that I tested over these 10 years, only a few still exist in the form in which they appeared.
Oh, of course you can recall the gadgets whose descendants are still here: iPod, BlackBerry, Internet Explorer, and so on. But the skin is covered with goosebumps when you think about the millions of dollars and man hours that have been spent on developing the now-deceased technologies: Olympus M-Robe, PocketPC, Smart Display, MicroMV, MSN Explorer, Aibo. All these PlaysForSure players, handhelds, GPS modules, on which you need to upload maps through a computer.
Everyone knows that this is the way of any technology. The trick is to come to terms with the fact that you are buying an obsolete item and not feel disappointed when it is removed from production next year.
(Another trick is to know about the cycle in advance: new cameras in September and February, new iPods in September, new iPhones in July ...)
No one can keep up with the development of technology. No matter where I go, I always find the same reaction to the development of the consumer device market: too many new products appear too quickly. It is impossible to keep up with all the trends, to know exactly what you need to buy, not to feel in the tail of progress.
It's true. There have never been such grandiose changes in the history of the period. It’s impossible to keep up with everything.
Finally, I will reveal a little secret: I also do not always have time. Damn it, it's my job to keep abreast of everything! And even I feel like I'm trying to drink from a fire hose. I try my best - I read blogs, flip through magazines, attend conferences and listen to PR managers - but sometimes I feel like trying to balance on top of a tsunami.
In other words, if you feel overwhelmed, then you are not alone, and this is normal. Just relax.