About IT dreams, and truckers in particular

It's funny to read articles about dreams about the future. How will autopilot, and robots will take the driver's seat. And, as usual, the most fun is comments. But the last article “ Dream of trucker. Electric tractor ... ” just finished off: first I wanted to take part in the discussions, but then I decided that it was easier to write an article.

But let's go in order.

I am almost a trucker. Now I will explain why "almost." In North America, my profession is called Turn-pike driver. This is the next step in the growth of a professional driver. When, after short courses, they give you one more additional rights to drive a 43+ meter “steam locomotive” with a total weight of up to 64 tons. It looks like this:



Behind almost 3 million kilometers. One driver drives an average of 250,000 km per year, otherwise it is simply not profitable for the company. Different tractors: from old ushatanny International Eagle to top-end Piterbuild 587. Here is this handsome man for a quarter of a million dollars at the time of arrival from the factory.



And now let's get to the main point: why it makes me laugh when I read the discussion that drivers are about to appear, and right away the whole industry will end.

Let's start with a simple one - with a technical implementation. How does the automation of any machine begin? I hope many understand that the installation of an automatic hydromechanical transmission is impossible on heavy trucks, because the weight of the truck is too large for this design. Development has taken a different path - robotic boxes. If someone is not in the subject: this is when a module is put on a conventional box, which uses gear or (often in trucks) to switch gears.



And here begins the zoo. The implementation, as you understand, cannot be very difficult: from the mechanical side everything is simple there, from the electronics side there are no particular difficulties either. Difficulties begin with logic. For example, at Mercedes, this is simply a linear shifting of speeds, straight from the first to at least the 13th. You can imagine this sad horror.

The only box at the moment that more or less shows some rudiments of intelligence is the VOLVO I-SHIFT. It can determine whether the trailer is hooked, takes into account the dynamics of the set of revolutions and can start at 5th speed if, for example, the truck is not equipped with a trailer; and maybe jump over a couple of speeds if the trailer is light. But, as experience has shown, she also knows how to hang and does not have a “protection against a fool” at all: there was one frame, no different intelligence and ingenuity, which on the move simply jerked the box in different modes, and she just went into the lock, requiring intervention official service.

Suspensions happen because of funny situations of internal logic conflict: for example, when you turn at an intersection, the tilt sensor tells it that you cannot accelerate more, but at that moment it just switched to a higher gear, and in the middle of the intersection you hung on a neutral point for about seconds for a few. Very unpleasant feeling.

Robotized boxes have been produced for about 10 years, and progress has not moved much. Do you think that people unable to make a normal robotic box will be able to create a car without a driver? I have very big doubts about this.

But suppose that an electric tractor does not need a gearbox, and this task can be crossed out.



The manufacturer seems to promise to create a network of gas stations ... Apparently, they were so busy creating renderings that they missed the fact that Shell had already done this several years ago.



These speakers have a pretty futuristic refueling system.



I honestly do not understand where the silence will come from this tractor and only the rustle of tires ... Will it be some kind of noiseless turbine? In most locations it is not allowed to use engine braking, because it is too loud, and people live around.

Why do I think that this tractor does not "fly"? Let's take a close look at the render.



Imagine that there is a gas turbine with a generator somewhere inside. Submitted? Now imagine what you need to do a service or repair. Does not work? Strange, but it should.

Declared comfort also causes bouts of laughter. Let's take a look at the salon of the same Volvo.



What was stated there? Fridge? Microwave? So it is now in any traction and is not something super-fantastic.

Moving on. I understand that this is a translation - " Autonomous trucks will spread our society on asphalt“- but only a person who has no idea about this industry could say such a thing. For most of the clients, there are problems with delivery. In some places even a driver with experience has problems with delivery, because the surrounding space is so densely built up and filled with parked cars that any the robot simply hangs there. Sometimes you just need to go and look for the owner of an abandoned car so that he moves it somewhere. True, experienced drivers know that this is a problem for the recipient of the load and is happy to load it with this problem.

Talking about the arrangement of sensors throughout the car and the trailer ... well, of course, you can dream, but experience suggests that, for example, when Caterpillar began to add electronics to its engines, it became very sad for buyers of such engines, and now it is very rare to see yellow the engine under the hood of the truck, although they used to be synonymous with indestructibility. The same Volvo with electronics is better, but there is another funny problem: the connectors that connect this electronics are oxidized, and already for more than 15 years. And, apparently, no one is going to replace them with something else. And when some sensors on the engine start to get lost due to oxidized connectors, which still need to be found (and this is not very easy), then wonderful things start to happen with the car.

But here you can argue that here, they say, Mercedes conducted a caravan of automated trucks. Well, great, someone brought these trucks to the road, and there they automatically followed the lead. And in the end - apparently, at the convention - the drivers were seated again by truck, and they reached their destination. Probably sounds cool, until you think about the need to create a whole infrastructure, when several trailers are escorted from point A and then met at point B, and then ordinary drivers deliver the goods to customers. Does this still remind you of anything? Tip:



In this case, the railway will be cheaper, and it already has a developed delivery infrastructure.

All the same applies to passenger cars. Yes, we are shown autonomous machines, but they are literally units for the entire globe, and it’s possible to argue that they are safer, of course, but there is not enough data.

But in fact, of course, I also dream that they will sometime begin to introduce at least the beginnings of all these technologies. Like, for example, the same Mercedes: outside the city itself can go in its own lane, and the driver at this time can pick something up.



But I do not think that this will happen very soon.

PS: For hotly debating salaries. The salary of the driver is from 50K to 120K dollars a year. I will focus on the salary of the driver . That is, the company gives you everything, and you just hold on to the wheel.