January 12, 2016 at 14:05On January 12, 1927, futurologist Igor Bestuzhev-Lada was born
Russian scientist, historian, sociologist and futurologist, specialist in the field of social forecasting Igor Vasilyevich Bestuzhev-Lada was born on January 12, 1927 in the village of Lada of the Penza Province. During his life, he wrote several dozen monographs, more than a thousand articles in periodicals and a number of articles in the third edition of the Great Soviet Encyclopedia.
In 1956, the young military historian had the idea: if people are exploring the past, why not study the future? Igor Bestuzhev-Lada called such a work futurology, and at about the same time, a similar thought occurred to five or six scientists in the West.
Shot from the program "Posner"
Fifty years ago, people lived in the same houses as they do now, and ate the same food. Now there are only three things in our lives that we did not know then - these are terrorists, computers and mobile phones. So mankind imperceptibly passed into a different state, and soon a similar transition will take place again - in 20-30 years. In an interview with Rossiiskaya Gazeta in 2011, Bestuzhev-Lada again spoke about the emergence of cyborgs in four generations.
In his works, Bestuzhev-Lada wrote about the emergence of a new generation computer "with a system unit in your pocket like a mobile phone, with a monitor in the form of a helmet looming over your eyes and with a wrist keyboard." That was long before Google released Google Glass.for developers in 2013 and before the advent of the Oculus Rift. Partially, the forecast comes true, but at the moment, such devices have not reached the level of popularity of smartphones. It remains to wait for "nanoscreens" deposited on the retina, so as not to wear any external devices. This brings us back to the cyborgs.
Until 2011, Bestuzhev-Lada spoke of the four next generations of computers. The first stage he called the screen in the form of a helmet or a wrist tablet. In his opinion, the creation of a quality product in this area was a matter of five to ten years. Now we already have a number of developments, including Microsoft's Hololens augmented reality glasses , which went to the International Space Station in December 2015 .
At the second stage, people will have a prefix with sensors that will monitor the state of health and indicate the actual date of death. In 2016, we have many smart watches that track the pulse and count steps, but they do not yet indicate the date of death. This function would be interesting: I drank a glass - life was reduced by a certain number of days, moderately exercised, pushed back the date.
At the third stage, Bestuzhev-Lada predicts the appearance of a computer program that can determine the parameters of a person from childhood or before birth - it will make the child a choleric or sanguine person, establish the necessary growth, eye and hair color. The plot of the movie "Gattaka" will become a reality . About fifteen years are left before this stage, as predicted by the futurologist.
At the fourth stage, a person will move into another category, cease to be a person: “The fact is that now two organs control the person: the mind and the heart. And cars will make us give up feelings. ”
In the article “Science and the Art of Forecasting,” Bestuzhev-Lada wrote about the future of the Internet. The global network, in his opinion, cannot forever be a dumping ground for informational “trash”; in the near future it will move from “informational chaos” to organized “informational space”. The scientist believed that with the help of the Internet, we can resist natural disasters. In April 2015, confirming this forecast, American geologists proposed a smartphone-based earthquake warning system. The application, using the vibration tracking of smartphones of thousands of participants, will build a cataclysm warning card.
"Information Field" with the same success will be able to prevent meteorites from falling to the Earth - as an elementary missile defense system. A missile with a nuclear charge will be able to smash the object into small fragments that will burn in the atmosphere. In other ways, it will be possible to prevent a tornado-storm in the bud, an earthquake or flood.
In 2008, Igor Bestuzhev-Lada published the Global Technology Forecast for the 21st Century. The technological forecast, unlike the simple one, is oriented not to prediction, but to identifying problems and ways to solve them. The futurologist highlighted the key problems of the 21st century, made a comparison with the past, doing this both in the technological industry and in the demographic. Terrorism and the new possibilities of the Internet, including the Internet of things, have so far been confirmed by the scenarios expressed by the futurologist.
In 1956, the young military historian had the idea: if people are exploring the past, why not study the future? Igor Bestuzhev-Lada called such a work futurology, and at about the same time, a similar thought occurred to five or six scientists in the West.
Shot from the program "Posner"
Fifty years ago, people lived in the same houses as they do now, and ate the same food. Now there are only three things in our lives that we did not know then - these are terrorists, computers and mobile phones. So mankind imperceptibly passed into a different state, and soon a similar transition will take place again - in 20-30 years. In an interview with Rossiiskaya Gazeta in 2011, Bestuzhev-Lada again spoke about the emergence of cyborgs in four generations.
In his works, Bestuzhev-Lada wrote about the emergence of a new generation computer "with a system unit in your pocket like a mobile phone, with a monitor in the form of a helmet looming over your eyes and with a wrist keyboard." That was long before Google released Google Glass.for developers in 2013 and before the advent of the Oculus Rift. Partially, the forecast comes true, but at the moment, such devices have not reached the level of popularity of smartphones. It remains to wait for "nanoscreens" deposited on the retina, so as not to wear any external devices. This brings us back to the cyborgs.
Until 2011, Bestuzhev-Lada spoke of the four next generations of computers. The first stage he called the screen in the form of a helmet or a wrist tablet. In his opinion, the creation of a quality product in this area was a matter of five to ten years. Now we already have a number of developments, including Microsoft's Hololens augmented reality glasses , which went to the International Space Station in December 2015 .
At the second stage, people will have a prefix with sensors that will monitor the state of health and indicate the actual date of death. In 2016, we have many smart watches that track the pulse and count steps, but they do not yet indicate the date of death. This function would be interesting: I drank a glass - life was reduced by a certain number of days, moderately exercised, pushed back the date.
At the third stage, Bestuzhev-Lada predicts the appearance of a computer program that can determine the parameters of a person from childhood or before birth - it will make the child a choleric or sanguine person, establish the necessary growth, eye and hair color. The plot of the movie "Gattaka" will become a reality . About fifteen years are left before this stage, as predicted by the futurologist.
At the fourth stage, a person will move into another category, cease to be a person: “The fact is that now two organs control the person: the mind and the heart. And cars will make us give up feelings. ”
In the article “Science and the Art of Forecasting,” Bestuzhev-Lada wrote about the future of the Internet. The global network, in his opinion, cannot forever be a dumping ground for informational “trash”; in the near future it will move from “informational chaos” to organized “informational space”. The scientist believed that with the help of the Internet, we can resist natural disasters. In April 2015, confirming this forecast, American geologists proposed a smartphone-based earthquake warning system. The application, using the vibration tracking of smartphones of thousands of participants, will build a cataclysm warning card.
"Information Field" with the same success will be able to prevent meteorites from falling to the Earth - as an elementary missile defense system. A missile with a nuclear charge will be able to smash the object into small fragments that will burn in the atmosphere. In other ways, it will be possible to prevent a tornado-storm in the bud, an earthquake or flood.
In 2008, Igor Bestuzhev-Lada published the Global Technology Forecast for the 21st Century. The technological forecast, unlike the simple one, is oriented not to prediction, but to identifying problems and ways to solve them. The futurologist highlighted the key problems of the 21st century, made a comparison with the past, doing this both in the technological industry and in the demographic. Terrorism and the new possibilities of the Internet, including the Internet of things, have so far been confirmed by the scenarios expressed by the futurologist.