Internet Economy Development Project
development of new principles of organization of calculations, which will increase the maximum clock speed of a computer by three to five orders of magnitude;
Imported devices, software and foreign services will obey the requirements of the law on the installation of domestic software and certified information security tools
Quotations from the speech of the deputy? A fragment from a science fiction novel? No, the document, in the work on the proposals to which “more than 1000 experts of the Internet community and Internet business took an active part. For the development of various areas of the program, a program committee was created (more than 180 specialized specialists and heads of Internet companies), and experts in areas were additionally involved. The results of work on the proposals were discussed in the expert community (850 people), all the comments received during the discussion were considered and taken into account in the proposals for the Program. ” The list of experts is given at the end of the document - and among them are representatives of Kaspersky Lab, Cisco, Mail.ru ...
Proposals for judicial liability for UDP traffic expressed in the Roadmap of the Set of Measures for the Development of the Media and Communications Industry have already attracted Runet’s attention, but the Roadmap is just an appendix to the Suggestions for Forming a Long-Term Development Program for the Russian Part of the Information and Communication Network “Internet” and related industries on September 29, 2015 ” , developed by the Internet Development Institute (with the participation of 1000 experts). And this in itself is a very interesting document.
It is very pleasant that the document contains definitions of terms - this allows us to understand the views of the drafters of the document on defined concepts
According to experts, as well as leading research organizations, including the Higher School of Economics National Research University, the Internet economy is an area of activity that creates infrastructure and network services (backbone communication networks, broadcasting, data transmission, communication services , paid Internet access services, superimposed networks of content delivery and data transfer, data storage and processing centers, microelectronics, electronics, client devices and gadgets), software (software) (platform solutions with services, enterprise software, business applications and services), client Internet services and applications (search engines, portals, digital media and entertainment, social networks, games, e-commerce, financial services, distance education, distance medicine),
It is funny, but judging by the definition, all the necessary hardware for creating an Internet economy should arise from the air. This is all the more amusing, as it becomes clear later in the document that the creation of such an economy is unthinkable without the creation of not only breakthrough technologies (and of course the establishment of production), but should also be carried out by Russian companies as part of import substitution.
Few sectors involved in the Internet are material production and economic sectors with varying degrees of involvement in the Internet economy: depending on the consumption of Internet Internet services and electronic government services, the use of specialized and comprehensive infrastructure software using cross-platform solutions and technologies. These experts include, in particular, the aerospace sector, heavy, light and chemical industries, mechanical engineering and instrument making, pharmaceuticals, energy, construction, agriculture and the food industry, mining, forestry and fisheries.
Of course, the experts know better, but I would not say that high technologies, including robotics and remote control, do not affect most of these industries. And indeed - below the document the task of robotization is set. However, the document resembles a puzzle assembled from several sets. There is another definition below:
The Internet economy is an economic infrastructure, an environment created and developing on the basis of ICT, uniting various sectors of the Russian and world economies via the Internet, the basis and key tool for developing the economy as a whole.
I like this definition better.
Objective of the project?
The picture of the ICT future of Russia will be determined by several key technological factors and their various combinations in private life, society, business and the state:
digital sovereignty, import substitution and information security;
absolute connectedness of all territories and population, high speed of access;
large amounts of data about people, organizations, territories, analytical models based on these data sets;
Internet of things: wearable devices, artificial intelligence (AI) and communications in household and industrial equipment, vehicles, nanosensors and radio tags;
biological and digital convergence: neural interfaces, chipping, cyber bodies.
All points except the last are constantly heard from high stands - and it would be strange if they did not appear in the document. But the last point sounds very fantastic.
The main goal of the long-term Development Program for the Russian part of the Internet and related industries should be to create favorable conditions for the development of the Internet economy of Russia - independent of external influences and competitive on a global scale. And with its development - to improve the quality of life of citizens, to create a stable, highly productive, competitive and managed economy.
In the field of civil society - to ensure digital equality, the digital public domain, to increase the participation of civil society in state and regional government, and also indirectly - through the development of the Internet economy and the growth of the country's economy as a whole - the growth of people's quality of life: amenities and comfort, level income, accessibility and quality of various services, efficiency and productivity of life, independence, freedom and new opportunities for development, work, creativity, leisure, etc.
The first bell. It is supposed to implement various services and services, which (including) will raise the level of income. Naturally, opportunities for freelance, remote diagnostics and much more will increase. Naturally, the income of those who create the Internet economy will rise. But there are also those who should consume all these services, ensuring the business development of those who create a new economy. The development of companies largely depends on the availability of effective demand - which for our country is much more dependent on the dollar exchange rate than on the availability of services.
What is the time period for the events that will be implemented as part of the Roadmaps?
These proposals for the Internet Development Program in Russia are intended to determine the most effective ways of developing the country's economy using the Internet for the next 10 years by combining the knowledge, views and opinions of representatives of leading Russian Internet companies, as well as companies that are most involved in the Internet.
The terms are specified below and the volumes of production and the amount of export revenue are announced.
The implementation of the tasks aimed at the development of the ICT industry has been largely determined by the Government of the Russian Federation in the Strategy for Innovative Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020, in the Forecast of the Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, in the Strategy for the Development of the Information Technology Industry in Of the Russian Federation for 2014 - 2020 and for the long term until 2025, in the action plan (“road map”) “Development of the information technology industry”, in the state program “Information Society (2011-2020) ”and other government documents.
In December 2013, in order to take measures by the executive authorities aimed at accelerating the development of the information technology industry in 2014-2018 and implementing the above Strategy, the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 30, 2013 No. 2602 p approved an action plan (“road map”) “Development information technology industry. " In accordance with the action plan, by 2018 the ratio of the growth rate of the IT industry to the growth rate of gross domestic product will triple, the volume of production in the IT sector will be 450 billion rubles and the volume of exports of IT products will reach $ 9 billion.
In 2014, in order to implement the Strategy for the development of the information technology industry in Russia, the Government of the Russian Federation dated April 15, 2014 No. 313 approved the state program "Information Society (2011-2020)", the purpose of which is to improve the quality of life of citizens through the use of ICT. In accordance with the program by 2020 on the index of development of information technologies, Russia should be among the 10 leading countries in the world.
Dates are certainly not long, but not small. True, there are big doubts that during such a period there will be conditions for the implementation of everything conceived. But was the promised runway tripling accomplished?
Who should realize the new economy?
Implementers of the program:
Specialized project teams and organizations.
Already the second point is surprising - who are they? Apparently, the project teams will be subordinate to the IR. But on the basis of whom will these teams be created? Question. After all, the use of firms and startups in this list is not implied
There is a fast and deep integration of the telecommunications industry, network Internet infrastructure and software with Internet services, hardware and electronics, which are an integral part of the ICT industry.
A very interesting phrase of the document is about the integration of "telecommunications industries, network Internet infrastructure" with hardware. I would say that on the contrary - everything is created or should be created on the basis of (fundamentally new) hardware. Well, ok
And here's an interesting passage:
The issue of insufficient competitiveness of individual Russian and, in the past, Soviet companies and enterprises lies not only and not so much in the plane of openness-closeness, monopolization-demonopolization, bureaucratization-de-bureaucratization of individual sectors and markets of the country or directly depends on the form of ownership.
This paragraph stands out from the whole document and it is not clear why it is needed - it is possible that it is understood that successful projects can be performed not only by commercial structures.
The success of the development program for the Russian part of the Internet and related sectors of the economy will be determined by the presence and connectivity of four key elements of the socio-economic environment of the Internet economy, the most important resources for its growth:
1) a sufficient number of highly qualified and motivated human capital that will work in Russia;
2) highly competitive technologies and world-class technological projects, which largely depends on the availability of appropriate human capital and relevant government programs to support and subsidize them;
3) sufficient financial resources for the commercialization and monetization of these technologies and projects, which can be done within the framework of targeted programs and development directions, as well as through financing of economic development programs as a whole while controlling its targeted use in investment projects of various industries, which will create a wave of demand for various sectors of the economy and growth multiplier;
4) solvent demand, built up through several channels: the entry of Russian Internet companies into international markets (Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe, etc.), increasing demand from Russian state and other companies, protecting the domestic market (automatically will increase domestic demand for Russian companies) and the development of a balanced sustainable economy as a whole due to the steady growth of various industries that can ensure sustainable growth of domestic demand for the long term.
The first two paragraphs do not raise questions, but the rest ... Paragraph three tells us that development will go within the framework of state programs - financing for development at the expense of domestic demand is not provided - which contradicts the declared goal of increasing the general income of the population. Apparently moving on to the real steps, the authors of the document became more realistic. Demand for services is envisaged in foreign markets by state companies and businesses. Demand from the population is not foreseen! The domestic market closes - when declaring the creation of breakthrough technologies, the authors of the document are not sure that Russian companies will cope with competition:
it is necessary to create preferences for Russian companies, protective measures for the Russian Internet economy and the economy as a whole, similar to those used in China and other countries.
The size of Russia as a sales market, even within the framework of the Customs Union, is small in comparison with the main technological competitors (USA, China, EU, India) that produce products oriented to many more capacious markets. This extends the payback period of projects, reduces the potential size and competitiveness of Russian goods and projects on a global scale and in the domestic market. To overcome this shortcoming, Russian business must actively work in international markets, including in the initial stages of projects, including in the countries of Southeast Asia, Latin America, etc.
Further, the project considers the available documents aimed at “innovative development of the ICT industry”.
State support for the domestic ICT industry is based on a long-term forecast for the country's development, compiled by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development in March 2013. In the corresponding document, entitled “Forecast of the Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2030”, 10 key, priority trends of scientific and technological development are highlighted. Among the most socially significant are mentioned: the
development of new principles for organizing computing, which will increase the maximum clock speed of a computer by three to five orders of magnitude ;
development of machine learning systems, computer networks with terabit speeds and supercomputer computing;
cloud technology development;
growth in the share of mobile devices: tablets, smartphones, etc .;
the evolution of the Internet, involving the development of distributed intelligent systems, smart or semantic networks.
If you look at the source document, the phrase on clock frequencies looks a little different
development of research in the field of new principles of organization of computing, creation of computing architectures built on new paradigms, including neuro-, bio-, optical, quantum, self-synchronization, recurrence, which will increase the maximum clock frequency of an optical computer to 10 12 -10 14 Hz (3-5 orders of magnitude higher than existing electronic counterparts);
But back to the Project.
In accordance with this document, the Government of the Russian Federation sets for 2014–2025 the following main goals for the development of the information technology industry:
1) Development of the information technology industry to become a full-fledged industry in the Russian economy that creates high-performance jobs and ensures the release of high-tech and competitive products;
That is, the Government of the Russian Federation does not consider the IT field a full-fledged industry. But the authors of the document do not agree with this:
The share of the Russian ICT industry has significantly increased in the structure of the economy and has acquired a strategic character.
Freud's reservation: “Russian share”.
What needs to be done in accordance with the available documents?
To achieve the goal, experts suggest the mandatory solution of the following tasks:
1) Development of human capital, including through the development of specialized education and the popularization of industry professions;
2) Improving the institutional environment for companies in Russia and reducing administrative barriers;
3) Export support and stimulation of globalization of the industry;
4) The development in Russia of research in the field of information technology and related fields;
5) Development of support mechanisms for small businesses, including accelerators, business incubators, technology parks and institutions necessary to improve the investment climate;
6) Improving the literacy of the population in the field of information technology;
7) Normalization of statistical observation in the industry;
8) Improving the interaction of authorities that determine state policy in the field of information technology with industry associations, clusters, platforms and other associations;
9) Creating conditions for the development of global leaders in the field of information technology in order to eliminate imbalances in the development of the industry and creating additional opportunities for the redemption of shares in the authorized capital of companies in the information technology industry by Russian investors by expanding the pool of large companies in the information technology industry in Russia through market mechanisms;
10) Further deep informatization of the most important sectors of the Russian economy, including the public sector;
11) Stimulating the development of domestic production through the order of the state and companies with state participation;
12) Ensuring information security;
13) Large-scale opening of state databases ;
14) Development of e-commerce infrastructure;
15) Development of electronic document management;
16) Development of data processing and storage centers;
17) The development of broadband access (broadband) to the Internet.
Again reliance on exports, not domestic development. Order from state-owned companies. But here’s the song: “Creating conditions for the development of global leaders in the field of IT in order to ... create opportunities for the redemption of shares in the authorized capital of industry companies ... by Russian investors.” An interesting phrase, are we going to improve the working conditions of existing industry leaders and redeem shares in their capital? Against this background, the opening of public databases for public access looks like a trifle.
However, “experts note that, in practice, the adopted documents do not currently work. This is due to the fact that: the actions of state customers are not coordinated, elimination of conflicts between the goals and methods declared in a number of documents, a number of provisions are not clearly defined, the actions of public authorities in the development of ICT technologies and their integration in various sectors of the economy are not coordinated , and in some cases, contradictory. Events of the programs, despite the declaration of large-scale ideas and projects, in some cases are focused on solving private problems ... A long-term program is required, the purpose of which should be the formation in Russia of an Internet economy based on the development of the ICT industry in all sectors. ”
Further, the document goes on to more specific things, rightly noting that “the most important component of the success of the Program is the connectedness of the implemented projects, the possibility of their integration, ensuring the joint work of ICT and Internet infrastructures of various sectors of the economy, not to mention the infrastructures of individual sectors.”
2) The basis and tool for creating such a socio-economic system of the world and national economy will be a high-tech and highly intelligent economy based on knowledge, high qualifications and the level of development of human resources (education and culture) and the widespread use of ICT at all levels of government, in business management and in the development of society;
4) For citizens, the level and dynamics of movement towards the new economy will be determined by the high and growing level of development and satisfaction with life (quality of life of the population).
That is, citizens with a high level of development and a greater level of satisfaction with life will use the new economy more?
Among the possible obstacles and restrictions to moving towards a new economy in Russia, experts identified the main current and potential problems:
3) Limited and accelerated growth in the consumption of natural resources, including energy and food, due to the accelerated growth of the Earth's population and economic growth in emerging markets. This can lead to a struggle for raw materials, and on the other hand, to a large-scale switch to alternative resources and energy sources (including due to increased production efficiency).
Again a strange thesis. Naturally, let’s say the exhaustion of oil sources will put an end to many things, but is the new economy supposed to take out of a vicious circle tied to exhaustible natural resources? Otherwise, it will be a feast during the plague.
4) The deterioration of the human environment, including the environment as a whole, especially in large cities, overpopulation and a decrease in the quality of life in certain regions, resulting in over-costs and deficits in local budgets.
Ecology is clearly important for life satisfaction, but it is unlikely that this factor will affect the level of informatization - rather, on the contrary, accelerated consumption of resources will raise the standard of living (temporarily), which will lead to an increase in demand, etc. However, lower ecology is linked with the involvement and retention of specialists in Russia
To attract and retain highly qualified people in Russia, you will need a highly developed system and material base of science and education, a high level of household security, a decent income and an adequate level of material support, comfortable living conditions: developed medicine, healthcare, social security, good living conditions, favorable living environment: ecology and nature.
It is difficult to argue, but in practice there are no positive trends in the same education - rather, on the contrary, there is a drop in the real level of income and an increase in paper load.
Russia's share in the structure of global venture financing is still very small in absolute terms, which does not allow the industry to dynamically develop on an equal footing with other countries. Venture financing in Russia is not large and in relative terms. But this can be offset by the large-scale participation of the state and large corporations.
On Megamind, the reasons for the low level of venture financing have been repeatedly discussed. But instead of forming an economy aimed at introducing innovations (recall - this is the goal of creating a new economy), large companies again want to sign large companies to buy unnecessary. Will it be any good?
Not without traditional complaints:
The initial natural and geographical conditions in a number of industrial regions of Russia lose in comparison with Europe, China and the USA. This translates into high costs for electricity, construction of housing and transport infrastructure.
In Russia, many regulatory conditions discriminate against Russian companies. Foreign companies are not only exempted from VAT on cross-border deliveries of products and services to Russia, but also do not pay, for example, income tax at the actual place of business in Russia. Russian Internet companies unjustifiably do not fall under the preferential rate of premiums to insurance funds at 14%, established in Russia for IT companies. Equal taxation of foreign Internet companies in Russia will be able to become a tool for protecting domestic producers, compensate for the reduction in the premium rate for Russian Internet companies, and become a source of state budget revenues.
What should the Internet economy look like?
The development of the Internet economy determines a number of technological trends that create qualitatively new means of production and communications:
1) A smart or intelligent enterprise operating on the basis of the integration of automated control systems (ACS) of production and business processes, the interaction of devices and devices, information analysis and adoption systems decisions;
2) Integrated intelligent control networks of telecommunications, energy, utilities and road transport, etc. infrastructure with integrated functions of transmission, storage, analysis and processing of information;
3) A smart farm with automatic and remote monitoring and control of all devices and systems (climatic, lighting, security, communication, etc.) integrated with service and metering systems for consumption, social and emergency services. Energy and resource saving at all levels with automatic coordination, control and balancing of use, efficient redistribution between different sources of generation and consumption, leading to an unprecedented increase in the efficiency of production and distribution, business and the economy as a whole, protection of the environment and the environment;
4) Integrated networks of electronic network marketing, advertising, distribution, delivery and payment, automatic demand analysis, supply planning, management of all marketing and commercial processes;
5) Integrated multimedia ICT space, platforms for aggregation, processing, distribution and delivery of a variety of digital content to any device;
6) E-government, which provides a wide range of public services to businesses and citizens: from registration of enterprises, property rights and payment of taxes to remote medical and educational services, security consultations, monitoring of public processes and the environment on state Internet portals on a “one-stop-shop” basis;
7) Horizontal communications and systems of relationships in business, the state and society based on Internet technologies, creating flexible labor, social, intersectoral and interstate teams and communities, transforming all management systems and socio-economic relations;
8) The rapid emergence of numerous new technologies and solutions (Big Data (Big Data), Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, etc.), born at the junction of various technological platforms, as well as the synergy of services connected by the Internet, radically changing the ways of organizing production , consumption and leisure.
Further, the experts decided to look into the future ...
The state will regulate legislation on data protection, control systems that prevent data hacking, encryption methods, specialized systems of protection and protection against targeted attacks on data and devices.
Big data on citizens will accumulate state structures and private companies that will organize their exchange and sale.
To be continued!