An analytical miracle (about our brain on Megamind)
There are generally two types of analytics: one is mandatory and very necessary when small changes are made to an existing project or concept and only then, on the basis of numerical measurable indicators and coefficients, completely transparent conclusions are made, why is option B itself preferable to option A, since more in line with current business challenges. Well, this is the most primitive, known and used by everyone. But there is also analytics in a vacuum, when data is collected to create a new project from scratch or to select from several options new large functions, noticeable chips, or categories of users into an existing project. Here on this today and dwell in more detail.
Did you notice how trendy trend words have not yet been fully understood by us inside, they immediately gain a halo of invincibility, super usefulness, uniqueness. You must admit that such magical words as BigData, guidelines, analytics produce the same life-giving effect on the psyche that only a couple of years ago they performed spells like "usability" or "design thinking" on our fragile minds. Today, using a real example, I am trying to show how in reality people use the thesis about the importance of the analytical approach and the usefulness of all the conclusions made after the huge spending of the budget for preliminary research.
In my youth, I was very interested in the decision-making method using a piece of paper, divided in half, on the one hand of which all the pros are written out, and on the other - all the minuses. For a quivering, spermatoxicosis-ridden mind, it seemed like a miracle that counting the arguments PRO and CONS taken from my own head so cleverly helps me decide on the future university, profession, girl, evening time, etc. It seemed like magic until I realized how it all actually worked.
After all, in fact, each time I diligently tried to converse to myself, summing up a few minuses into one, where I “wanted” to make a decision FOR, diligently hushing up some negative points, considering them too insignificant. Very often, I painted the same plus in various synonyms at six different points, adding weight to the desired solution. And I did it absolutely sincerely, with a pure heart, without even a second feeling the trick at the time of the decision. When the years passed, when I realized how many minuses I missed due to ordinary ignorance or subconscious muhlezh - my hair stood on end. It turns out that instead of the analytical process and getting rid of uncertainty, I simply manipulated myself as primitively as possible, pretending to be engaged in a purely cunning psychological technique.
With shaking hands, I rushed to the Internet - a source of knowledge. And for sure, this Wikipedia entry reduced my future old age by 15 years:
Rationalization (lat. Rationalis - rational, lat. Ratio - reason) - a psychological defense mechanism in which only that part of perceived information is used in thinking, and only those conclusions, due to which their own behavior appears as well-controlled and not contrary to objective circumstances. In other words, the selection (search) of a rational explanation for behavior or decisions that have other, unconscious reasons.
Everything is just like that. The decision has always been made by me. And the analyst, used as a super-useful tool, could only calm down a certain Inner Critic, hired purely for the sake, in order to hide the absolute venality of my entire Jury of Consciousness. And so, in order to calm one formal character inside the head, the arguments and arguments were completely formal and part of the most important (even critical) information was hushed up, plus some (most important, as usual) data was simply impossible to obtain. Analyzing the event with incomplete data is possible only on the basis of probability, as it is done in poker. And no other way.
The question is, when was the last time you saw an analytical calculation with a well-balanced engineering calculation of the probabilities of dozens of the most anticipated events, how about analyzing the “hand” in poker on a short table with the small blind? Never agree. Then call the police.
So, years have passed, and it turned out that many adults and respectable people around me always behave this way, fitting incomplete data to the previously made decision to go all-in.
So, getting, for example, 15 analytical theses, of which only ten are aware of the meaning, of which only six can be adapted to a long-standing own hypothesis invented 5 years ago for beer with friends - and the final decision of the company’s strategy is made for five years, bingo! Legally, everything is true: there is a victory of the six most suitable arguments for the hypothesis built into the hypothesis, and only 4 AGAINST, as though they clearly show everyone how smart and shrewd a typical analyst is.
Once again I emphasize the real data obtained by the analyst - here they can be interpreted, bent and put in any poses convenient for a person who is looking for excuses for his long-standing idea. Life examples will not take long to search:
So a man came across a report with Avito and Instagram indicators for the last quarter? - Excellent, and the conclusion is instantly drawn: that means people need new catalogs of announcements, and more beautiful photos. We unite the projects into one, and conquer the world with the new InstaVito project, where advertisements for the sale of cars and apartments are written on the photos above. Cool? Will you make me a material?
Another typical idea with which people come to me every month who suddenly read yesterday an interview with Kalinov or Zuckerberg. The next morning, after such a busy reading, they surely have memories like 3 years ago, in the toilet they very passionately whispered to intern Asa that for a long time they needed a special social network for travelers, which would help them, together with a reverent Asya, get away from the hated ghoul-boss from work and found a new travel startup, part-time "Facebook killer", to eat black caviar from a shovel. All you need to do is just design in a flat such a thing where people will post their travel reports. Well, brilliant? And what, here are the statistics of requests in Yandex, here are the publicly available data on profit (alien), here is the success of the team (alien talents), it means that I will have the same amount of money and experts in submission - since all the others already have it. Believe me, millions of people today think at such an analytical level, and your minus to this article will not affect this situation in the country and in the world.
So, we have figured out that all this is not ingenious insights, these are just games of your mind, glitches of the subconscious, always trying to justify all associative nonsense, even inside ourselves. And almost any analytics that currently exists at the stage of the absence of a real product with hundreds of cones works just the same - it shows the existing achievements of others, and does not evaluate the multiple probabilities and potential of yourself, no matter how sad it may sound.
So you paid several thousand dollars for the list of the most popular Russian cities for visiting foreigners of middle age and middle income? The question is - why? What will you do now with this list: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan? It’s correct, with optimism, to create on the basis of these data the English-language site of the fascinating gastronomic tour Balalayka & Matrioshka.com, which you conceived in grade 9 at a geography lesson, singing the Lyube song: “Bath, vodka, accordion and salmon”. This very decision was already in your head from the very beginning, which is why you, in fact, ordered this analytics for your own self-affirmation.
And the opposite will also be true: if you don’t already have a ready-made application for phones and smart watches saving children from under the wheels of cars, then you simply, under no circumstances, will be interested in statistics and analytics of the number of children killed in road accidents, broken down by year, region, gender, income level of their family, etc. But all of it is freely available, but nobody cares, in general, absolutely. As if startups about saving lives are simply prohibited by the legislation of the Russian Federation (in fact, no, of course). And even if you bring this data to the table, circle it with markers, show a video - not a single nerve will tremble inside us. Just because a super-material-mega-flat-application with interactive maps of dangerous turns “Child Rescuer” has not yet been page-drawn in your mind. No, you don’t need it simply because
These are the pies.
gladwell.com/blink
www.pcytherapy.ru/psy_61
www.openspace.ru/article/899
Did you notice how trendy trend words have not yet been fully understood by us inside, they immediately gain a halo of invincibility, super usefulness, uniqueness. You must admit that such magical words as BigData, guidelines, analytics produce the same life-giving effect on the psyche that only a couple of years ago they performed spells like "usability" or "design thinking" on our fragile minds. Today, using a real example, I am trying to show how in reality people use the thesis about the importance of the analytical approach and the usefulness of all the conclusions made after the huge spending of the budget for preliminary research.
In my youth, I was very interested in the decision-making method using a piece of paper, divided in half, on the one hand of which all the pros are written out, and on the other - all the minuses. For a quivering, spermatoxicosis-ridden mind, it seemed like a miracle that counting the arguments PRO and CONS taken from my own head so cleverly helps me decide on the future university, profession, girl, evening time, etc. It seemed like magic until I realized how it all actually worked.
After all, in fact, each time I diligently tried to converse to myself, summing up a few minuses into one, where I “wanted” to make a decision FOR, diligently hushing up some negative points, considering them too insignificant. Very often, I painted the same plus in various synonyms at six different points, adding weight to the desired solution. And I did it absolutely sincerely, with a pure heart, without even a second feeling the trick at the time of the decision. When the years passed, when I realized how many minuses I missed due to ordinary ignorance or subconscious muhlezh - my hair stood on end. It turns out that instead of the analytical process and getting rid of uncertainty, I simply manipulated myself as primitively as possible, pretending to be engaged in a purely cunning psychological technique.
With shaking hands, I rushed to the Internet - a source of knowledge. And for sure, this Wikipedia entry reduced my future old age by 15 years:
Rationalization (lat. Rationalis - rational, lat. Ratio - reason) - a psychological defense mechanism in which only that part of perceived information is used in thinking, and only those conclusions, due to which their own behavior appears as well-controlled and not contrary to objective circumstances. In other words, the selection (search) of a rational explanation for behavior or decisions that have other, unconscious reasons.
Everything is just like that. The decision has always been made by me. And the analyst, used as a super-useful tool, could only calm down a certain Inner Critic, hired purely for the sake, in order to hide the absolute venality of my entire Jury of Consciousness. And so, in order to calm one formal character inside the head, the arguments and arguments were completely formal and part of the most important (even critical) information was hushed up, plus some (most important, as usual) data was simply impossible to obtain. Analyzing the event with incomplete data is possible only on the basis of probability, as it is done in poker. And no other way.
The question is, when was the last time you saw an analytical calculation with a well-balanced engineering calculation of the probabilities of dozens of the most anticipated events, how about analyzing the “hand” in poker on a short table with the small blind? Never agree. Then call the police.
So, years have passed, and it turned out that many adults and respectable people around me always behave this way, fitting incomplete data to the previously made decision to go all-in.
So, getting, for example, 15 analytical theses, of which only ten are aware of the meaning, of which only six can be adapted to a long-standing own hypothesis invented 5 years ago for beer with friends - and the final decision of the company’s strategy is made for five years, bingo! Legally, everything is true: there is a victory of the six most suitable arguments for the hypothesis built into the hypothesis, and only 4 AGAINST, as though they clearly show everyone how smart and shrewd a typical analyst is.
Once again I emphasize the real data obtained by the analyst - here they can be interpreted, bent and put in any poses convenient for a person who is looking for excuses for his long-standing idea. Life examples will not take long to search:
So a man came across a report with Avito and Instagram indicators for the last quarter? - Excellent, and the conclusion is instantly drawn: that means people need new catalogs of announcements, and more beautiful photos. We unite the projects into one, and conquer the world with the new InstaVito project, where advertisements for the sale of cars and apartments are written on the photos above. Cool? Will you make me a material?
Another typical idea with which people come to me every month who suddenly read yesterday an interview with Kalinov or Zuckerberg. The next morning, after such a busy reading, they surely have memories like 3 years ago, in the toilet they very passionately whispered to intern Asa that for a long time they needed a special social network for travelers, which would help them, together with a reverent Asya, get away from the hated ghoul-boss from work and found a new travel startup, part-time "Facebook killer", to eat black caviar from a shovel. All you need to do is just design in a flat such a thing where people will post their travel reports. Well, brilliant? And what, here are the statistics of requests in Yandex, here are the publicly available data on profit (alien), here is the success of the team (alien talents), it means that I will have the same amount of money and experts in submission - since all the others already have it. Believe me, millions of people today think at such an analytical level, and your minus to this article will not affect this situation in the country and in the world.
So, we have figured out that all this is not ingenious insights, these are just games of your mind, glitches of the subconscious, always trying to justify all associative nonsense, even inside ourselves. And almost any analytics that currently exists at the stage of the absence of a real product with hundreds of cones works just the same - it shows the existing achievements of others, and does not evaluate the multiple probabilities and potential of yourself, no matter how sad it may sound.
So you paid several thousand dollars for the list of the most popular Russian cities for visiting foreigners of middle age and middle income? The question is - why? What will you do now with this list: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan? It’s correct, with optimism, to create on the basis of these data the English-language site of the fascinating gastronomic tour Balalayka & Matrioshka.com, which you conceived in grade 9 at a geography lesson, singing the Lyube song: “Bath, vodka, accordion and salmon”. This very decision was already in your head from the very beginning, which is why you, in fact, ordered this analytics for your own self-affirmation.
And the opposite will also be true: if you don’t already have a ready-made application for phones and smart watches saving children from under the wheels of cars, then you simply, under no circumstances, will be interested in statistics and analytics of the number of children killed in road accidents, broken down by year, region, gender, income level of their family, etc. But all of it is freely available, but nobody cares, in general, absolutely. As if startups about saving lives are simply prohibited by the legislation of the Russian Federation (in fact, no, of course). And even if you bring this data to the table, circle it with markers, show a video - not a single nerve will tremble inside us. Just because a super-material-mega-flat-application with interactive maps of dangerous turns “Child Rescuer” has not yet been page-drawn in your mind. No, you don’t need it simply because
These are the pies.
References
gladwell.com/blink
www.pcytherapy.ru/psy_61
www.openspace.ru/article/899