The future of jobs. The main thing from the report of the World Economic Forum
According to the report of the World Economic Forum The Future of the Jobs 2018 , within four years, 75 million jobs will be eliminated, but another 133 million will replace them. But the fear that “robots replace people” still does not correspond to reality. The wording “will simplify and improve work efficiency” will be more accurate.
The fourth industrial revolution through automation, big data, AI, and other technologies continues to influence labor markets, economies, manufacturing, and product value. Industrial giants are now on a par with technology leaders like Uber, Facebook and Google, the speed of scaling services is fundamentally different from that in the traditional economy, and robots come on the heels of people.
Companies face many issues related to technology adaptation. As well as in front of their employees: someone will have to decide whether to retire, increase their competence, or completely change the specialty - because not all employers are willing to teach existing employees, but intend to hire new ones.
I read all 147 pages of the report and extracted the most important, in my opinion. I propose to discuss in the comments.
In the XVIII - XIX centuries there was a massive transition from manual to machine labor, from manufacture to factory. A steam engine appeared, thanks to new technologies, the textile industry, the metallurgical industry and transport developed.
The next stage was the Second Industrial Revolution - it began in the second half of the XIX century and continued until the beginning of the XX century. It was based on the production of high-grade steel, the distribution of railways, electricity and chemicals.
In the late 1980s, the transition from analog to digital technology began, which is called the Digital Revolution. Its main driving forces have become the penetration of the Internet, the spread of computer technology and the massive use of portable communication devices.
Although the Digital Revolution continues, there is already an idea of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is distinguished by the massive introduction of cyber-physical systems into production, life, work and leisure of a person. The main technological trends at the heart of such systems:
A new confirmation of the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution was the list of technologies that the companies plan to use according to the VEF survey.
The graph shows, in descending order, technologies in proportion to the number of companies that intend to adapt them to their business by 2022. Among the most popular you can see those that characterize and serve as the basis of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The list includes robots - from stationary, which will be used by 37% of companies, to air and underwater from 19%. Such machines, in contrast to the “end-to-end technologies” that we see as leaders, are used for narrower purposes, and the extent of their use depends heavily on industries.
Today, machines do not work much compared to man. 71% of working time is human labor, and only 29% take on cars. By 2025, this figure may change to 48% and 52% respectively, that is, most of the work will begin to perform the machine.
These machines include humanoid robots, stationary robots, airborne and underwater robotic vehicles, and non-humanoid ground robots.
Financial companies will start using humanoid robots until 2022. This possibility was confirmed by 85% of experts in this field who were surveyed as part of the study. The driver for the development of both stationary robots and non-humanoid ground robots will be automakers, aerospace companies and companies associated with the supply of goods.
The oil and gas industry will actively use air and underwater robots. This may be due to the development of new territories: the world ocean. It covers more than 70% of the earth’s surface and carries a huge amount of minerals. At the same time, it is practically not studied. If almost 600 people have been in space, then there are only three at the bottom of the Mariinsky Depression, and scientists continue to find in it new flora and fauna. Underwater robots become human eyes and hands and should help the industry to find new sources of oil, gas and other minerals.
Less than a quarter of jobs worldwide can be automated by 70% or more. Machines will be able to perform only part of the tasks, that is, to complement a person’s work, facilitate it and increase efficiency. In order to be in demand, some employees will have to upgrade their qualifications and acquire new competencies - in most cases at their own expense, since employers will prefer to hire new specialists instead of retraining existing ones.
75 million jobs by 2022 will become irrelevant to the economy. The 10 main specialties, the number of people in which will be reduced, will include clerks responsible for entering information, accountants, workers of factories and assembly shops, customer service specialists, administrative managers, auditors and a number of others.
This does not mean that there will be no more such specialists - we are talking about reducing their number. For example, instead of ten people in accounting, the chief accountant will sit, who with the help of normal software will be responsible for the calculations of the entire company. Instead of call centers with dozens and hundreds of people today, banks and telecom operators are already using an answering machine, designed to solve a number of the most frequent tasks.
If we talk about the specialties that will appear thanks to new technologies, then among the growing roles according to the WEF study will be data analysis specialists and scientists in this field, specialists in artificial intelligence and machine learning, developers and analytics of software and applications, sales and marketing specialists. , professionals in the field of digital transformation and IT-services.
On the first places among the technologies that will be used by the surveyed companies until 2022 are big data analysis, machine learning, Internet of things, cloud technologies, AR / VR, 3D printing, autonomous cars and others - the list is not much different from the general.
New vacancies will appear in the country for managing directors and managers, developers and analysts of software and applications, sales and marketing specialists, heads of operations departments, data analysts, HR specialists, factory workers and assembly shops, financial and investment advisors and management specialists. risks.
At the same time, among the most important skills, the respondents noted creativity, originality and initiative, analytical thinking, active learning and a strategic approach to it, technological design and programming, critical thinking and analysis, emotional intelligence, the ability to solve complex problems, leadership and social influence.
What matters is how organizations will cope with the lack of specialists. In 86% of cases, vacancies, according to company representatives, will be closed by new employees. 68% noted the opportunity to retrain existing employees.
The report was issued by the World Economic Forum and partners - the Eurasian Institute of Competitiveness and consulting partners Strategy Partners. Full version of the document link. The study affected 313 employers in 20 countries, the aggregate volume of which economies account for 70% of world GDP, out of 12 industries. The number of their employees is about 15 million people.
The fourth industrial revolution through automation, big data, AI, and other technologies continues to influence labor markets, economies, manufacturing, and product value. Industrial giants are now on a par with technology leaders like Uber, Facebook and Google, the speed of scaling services is fundamentally different from that in the traditional economy, and robots come on the heels of people.
Companies face many issues related to technology adaptation. As well as in front of their employees: someone will have to decide whether to retire, increase their competence, or completely change the specialty - because not all employers are willing to teach existing employees, but intend to hire new ones.
I read all 147 pages of the report and extracted the most important, in my opinion. I propose to discuss in the comments.
Industrial Revolution
In the XVIII - XIX centuries there was a massive transition from manual to machine labor, from manufacture to factory. A steam engine appeared, thanks to new technologies, the textile industry, the metallurgical industry and transport developed.
The next stage was the Second Industrial Revolution - it began in the second half of the XIX century and continued until the beginning of the XX century. It was based on the production of high-grade steel, the distribution of railways, electricity and chemicals.
In the late 1980s, the transition from analog to digital technology began, which is called the Digital Revolution. Its main driving forces have become the penetration of the Internet, the spread of computer technology and the massive use of portable communication devices.
Although the Digital Revolution continues, there is already an idea of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is distinguished by the massive introduction of cyber-physical systems into production, life, work and leisure of a person. The main technological trends at the heart of such systems:
- Big data and analytics
- Autonomous robots
- Simulations and simulators
- Cloud computing
- Internet of things
- Information Security
- 3D printing
- Augmented Reality
A new confirmation of the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution was the list of technologies that the companies plan to use according to the VEF survey.
Technologies that companies will adopt by 2022
The graph shows, in descending order, technologies in proportion to the number of companies that intend to adapt them to their business by 2022. Among the most popular you can see those that characterize and serve as the basis of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The list includes robots - from stationary, which will be used by 37% of companies, to air and underwater from 19%. Such machines, in contrast to the “end-to-end technologies” that we see as leaders, are used for narrower purposes, and the extent of their use depends heavily on industries.
Robots revolution
Today, machines do not work much compared to man. 71% of working time is human labor, and only 29% take on cars. By 2025, this figure may change to 48% and 52% respectively, that is, most of the work will begin to perform the machine.
These machines include humanoid robots, stationary robots, airborne and underwater robotic vehicles, and non-humanoid ground robots.
Financial companies will start using humanoid robots until 2022. This possibility was confirmed by 85% of experts in this field who were surveyed as part of the study. The driver for the development of both stationary robots and non-humanoid ground robots will be automakers, aerospace companies and companies associated with the supply of goods.
The oil and gas industry will actively use air and underwater robots. This may be due to the development of new territories: the world ocean. It covers more than 70% of the earth’s surface and carries a huge amount of minerals. At the same time, it is practically not studied. If almost 600 people have been in space, then there are only three at the bottom of the Mariinsky Depression, and scientists continue to find in it new flora and fauna. Underwater robots become human eyes and hands and should help the industry to find new sources of oil, gas and other minerals.
Less than a quarter of jobs worldwide can be automated by 70% or more. Machines will be able to perform only part of the tasks, that is, to complement a person’s work, facilitate it and increase efficiency. In order to be in demand, some employees will have to upgrade their qualifications and acquire new competencies - in most cases at their own expense, since employers will prefer to hire new specialists instead of retraining existing ones.
Change in jobs
75 million jobs by 2022 will become irrelevant to the economy. The 10 main specialties, the number of people in which will be reduced, will include clerks responsible for entering information, accountants, workers of factories and assembly shops, customer service specialists, administrative managers, auditors and a number of others.
This does not mean that there will be no more such specialists - we are talking about reducing their number. For example, instead of ten people in accounting, the chief accountant will sit, who with the help of normal software will be responsible for the calculations of the entire company. Instead of call centers with dozens and hundreds of people today, banks and telecom operators are already using an answering machine, designed to solve a number of the most frequent tasks.
If we talk about the specialties that will appear thanks to new technologies, then among the growing roles according to the WEF study will be data analysis specialists and scientists in this field, specialists in artificial intelligence and machine learning, developers and analytics of software and applications, sales and marketing specialists. , professionals in the field of digital transformation and IT-services.
Russia
On the first places among the technologies that will be used by the surveyed companies until 2022 are big data analysis, machine learning, Internet of things, cloud technologies, AR / VR, 3D printing, autonomous cars and others - the list is not much different from the general.
New vacancies will appear in the country for managing directors and managers, developers and analysts of software and applications, sales and marketing specialists, heads of operations departments, data analysts, HR specialists, factory workers and assembly shops, financial and investment advisors and management specialists. risks.
At the same time, among the most important skills, the respondents noted creativity, originality and initiative, analytical thinking, active learning and a strategic approach to it, technological design and programming, critical thinking and analysis, emotional intelligence, the ability to solve complex problems, leadership and social influence.
What matters is how organizations will cope with the lack of specialists. In 86% of cases, vacancies, according to company representatives, will be closed by new employees. 68% noted the opportunity to retrain existing employees.
The report was issued by the World Economic Forum and partners - the Eurasian Institute of Competitiveness and consulting partners Strategy Partners. Full version of the document link. The study affected 313 employers in 20 countries, the aggregate volume of which economies account for 70% of world GDP, out of 12 industries. The number of their employees is about 15 million people.