June 10, 2014 at 13:01Why success stories are so worthless
Misanthropes will like this post: after all, it is about the fact that there is nothing worthless than someone else's success. Now, if there was a place where people would honestly share their plans, and then it would be possible to follow their implementation step by step and record not only good luck, but also failures in the end ... Oh, I write on the blog of such a project. We go to “SmartProgress”, select the Goals menu, sort “failed”, add the “best of all time” parameter - and look at the list of the loudest files on the project .
Since each story is accompanied by a detailed description, you can analyze the causes of other people's failures in sufficient detail - as much as users allow themselves to be frank. After all, we don’t want to make the mistake that everyone who studies other people's success stories, forgetting the history of failures, is the mistake of the survivor.
A textbook example from the history of the Second World War: as a mathematician of Romanian descent, Abraham Wald helped pilots of American bombers to return to the base more often alive. The losses of the bombers were catastrophic - one successful hit could turn the miracle of engineering into a mass grave. But it was impossible to weigh the bomber with armor endlessly - after all, they also had to carry bombs. Therefore, it was necessary to choose. Watching returning to the base riddled with bullets by bombers, the army authorities decided that it was necessary to strengthen those parts of the corps that most resembled a colander: the wings, the lower part of the corps and the tail near the rifle turret - it is obvious that they were hit more often.
But Wald drew the attention of the command to the fact that the real threat was not the damage with which the planes returned home, but those that destroyed them - and which therefore could not be studied. If a plane can fly with a hole from a bullet in the wing - you need to look where there is no hole - perhaps because the crew didn’t get there, the crew can return alive.
This is the most popular example, illustrating the so-called “survivorship bias” - a generalization of data only on the basis of successful results.
Reading success and other people's success stories, we become infected with different emotions - from envy and anger to optimism and enthusiasm. But this is a waste of mental strength. After all, the story of someone else's success is worth nothing without data on how many people failed on the same path.
Behind each success story lies a series of failures of other people who failed to become kings of the mountain - usually the biographies of the winners squeamishly omit the details, making it clear that there is no reason to be interested in the losers. But only until you yourself turn out to be an episode of someone else's success story.
This happens to us every day, but few draw conclusions from this. Passion for other people's success stories is simply dangerous: you either spend time on the implementation of other people's bad advice, or fall into the trap of the illusion that your mistakes are in fact the road to success.
I did not have time to think about how to better illustrate this thesis, when I caught the eye of the publication " 12 things that successful people do before breakfast " - yes, this stuff in the internet in bulk.
By the way, it’s curious: as soon as I needed to find a success story, Facebook gave me the necessary link. This phenomenon, known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon - once you hear a new word, you start to meet it everywhere - does it remind you of anything? But this is another example of survivorship bias: we cannot say how often we met this word before we recognized it precisely because we did not know it. For the time being, unknown words are simply located in the same cemetery of downed bombers, slipping in the gaps of our attention like a black man in this photo . Simply put, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon does not exist - or rather, it is just a special case of survivorship bias, which has earned a separate name.
12 things that successful people do before breakfast is a brief squeeze from an entire (and very popular!) Book on this subject. Let’s take a look at the 12 morning habits of successful people through the prism of a survivor’s mistake:
- tell this to construction workers or truck taxi drivers - getting up at 5 in the morning is a common thing for a working person, but not all of them are aware that this leads them to success, rather than chronic lack of sleep and a painful old age.
- The habit is certainly useful. Distributed, for example, in China - the result of Soviet influence. Did it really bring the Chinese worker closer to the success of Steve Jobs? Well, except that they both made iPhones, yes.
- Morning is definitely a great time to do the most important things. Like a day. Or evening. Or even night. That's why they are the most important. Each person has his own important business, some people deal with them in the morning - and is this the secret of success?
- A great point that reports that a hobby or a dream project in the morning distinguishes successful people. This point seems difficult - in order to fulfill it, you must first overcome the first 3, and then there are 8 more on the list. This is probably why it may seem tempting to someone. But actually, there is no magic in devoting time to a hobby in the morning. A simple advice to have a hobby brings us back to the sacramental: I do a startup in my free time - where is my success?
- A popular accent in any recommendations for success or just a happy life. This is useful advice for harmonizing life: so that, having achieved success, not be emotionally devastated. But we will be honest with ourselves - people who spend time with their families are much more than people who have achieved success. A large Iranian mother will confirm this to you.
- A great item, by the way. It does not matter that in the article this is explained by the fact that a successful person is stupid not until that evening after a working day. Served as a secret to success anyway. “Honey, we want to pay the mortgage early?”
At any business breakfast arranged by a successful person, from 1 to 10 less successful colleagues are present. The bill, it turns out, is not in their favor. A typical “survivor mistake”.
A joke is known on this subject: "We know about the mind and kindness of dolphins from the stories of swimmers whom they pushed to the shore - but we will never learn anything from those whom they pushed in the opposite direction."
- joyful "Woo-hoo!" came from the esoteric parties. It doesn't matter that most of their visitors are life-lost people: Is Condoleezza Rice doing yoga? This is probably why she became the US Secretary of State. Jobs, however, is not enough for everyone.
Yes, lovers of reading mantras today are definitely a holiday. Autotraining is one of the most common examples of surviving errors. If all women on the planet repeat: “I am the most charming, I am the most attractive” - one of them will win the Miss Universe contest. This is inevitable because the competition is annual.
A few words about how luck works:Joseph Banks Rhine, the "ghost hunter," claimed that he managed to select several people with extrasensory abilities from hundreds of test subjects. His statement was based on the incredible results that they showed in guessing the Zener cards. The mistake of the survivor is obvious here: he himself admits that he tested hundreds of people. Obviously, as the subjects grow, the likelihood that one of them will guess more cards than others will increase.
Advice from the category “Internet survey showed that 100% of participants use the Internet” - it is obvious that all successful people plan important things. The problem is that even the most unlucky people plan important things. It’s just that their plans do not come true.
“I check my mail every fifteen minutes.” When can I start checking myself on the Forbes list?
- and here is the joy on the street of office plankton, which everyone reads the news. Most likely, this item was paid to Lenta.ru - after all, there is nothing more pleasant than assuming that if you are informed as Richard Branson, then you are successful as he is.
A simple change of point of view shows that all 12 habits of successful people are no different from the habits of ordinary people or losers. Is a whole book, a popular article and a bunch of translations really completely useless? It turns out that so. It happens even worse: imagine that there would be no smart Romanian head of Abraham Wald at the disposal of American generals - and they would begin to reinforce the wings of their bombers, replenishing the aviation cemetery with airplanes with flawlessly whole wings.
From literate life coaching there will be much more benefit.
It's time to reconsider the attitude towards people who like to listen about other people's failures. Not necessarily a miserable misanthrope. It is possible this is a reasonable person. PS If you do not have an account on the hub, you can express your opinion on this article in our blog - SmartTalks
Since each story is accompanied by a detailed description, you can analyze the causes of other people's failures in sufficient detail - as much as users allow themselves to be frank. After all, we don’t want to make the mistake that everyone who studies other people's success stories, forgetting the history of failures, is the mistake of the survivor.
A textbook example from the history of the Second World War: as a mathematician of Romanian descent, Abraham Wald helped pilots of American bombers to return to the base more often alive. The losses of the bombers were catastrophic - one successful hit could turn the miracle of engineering into a mass grave. But it was impossible to weigh the bomber with armor endlessly - after all, they also had to carry bombs. Therefore, it was necessary to choose. Watching returning to the base riddled with bullets by bombers, the army authorities decided that it was necessary to strengthen those parts of the corps that most resembled a colander: the wings, the lower part of the corps and the tail near the rifle turret - it is obvious that they were hit more often.
But Wald drew the attention of the command to the fact that the real threat was not the damage with which the planes returned home, but those that destroyed them - and which therefore could not be studied. If a plane can fly with a hole from a bullet in the wing - you need to look where there is no hole - perhaps because the crew didn’t get there, the crew can return alive.
This is the most popular example, illustrating the so-called “survivorship bias” - a generalization of data only on the basis of successful results.
Reading success and other people's success stories, we become infected with different emotions - from envy and anger to optimism and enthusiasm. But this is a waste of mental strength. After all, the story of someone else's success is worth nothing without data on how many people failed on the same path.
Behind each success story lies a series of failures of other people who failed to become kings of the mountain - usually the biographies of the winners squeamishly omit the details, making it clear that there is no reason to be interested in the losers. But only until you yourself turn out to be an episode of someone else's success story.
This happens to us every day, but few draw conclusions from this. Passion for other people's success stories is simply dangerous: you either spend time on the implementation of other people's bad advice, or fall into the trap of the illusion that your mistakes are in fact the road to success.
I did not have time to think about how to better illustrate this thesis, when I caught the eye of the publication " 12 things that successful people do before breakfast " - yes, this stuff in the internet in bulk.
By the way, it’s curious: as soon as I needed to find a success story, Facebook gave me the necessary link. This phenomenon, known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon - once you hear a new word, you start to meet it everywhere - does it remind you of anything? But this is another example of survivorship bias: we cannot say how often we met this word before we recognized it precisely because we did not know it. For the time being, unknown words are simply located in the same cemetery of downed bombers, slipping in the gaps of our attention like a black man in this photo . Simply put, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon does not exist - or rather, it is just a special case of survivorship bias, which has earned a separate name.
So, the article.
12 things that successful people do before breakfast is a brief squeeze from an entire (and very popular!) Book on this subject. Let’s take a look at the 12 morning habits of successful people through the prism of a survivor’s mistake:
1. Wake up early
- tell this to construction workers or truck taxi drivers - getting up at 5 in the morning is a common thing for a working person, but not all of them are aware that this leads them to success, rather than chronic lack of sleep and a painful old age.
2. Do the charging
- The habit is certainly useful. Distributed, for example, in China - the result of Soviet influence. Did it really bring the Chinese worker closer to the success of Steve Jobs? Well, except that they both made iPhones, yes.
3. Work on major projects
- Morning is definitely a great time to do the most important things. Like a day. Or evening. Or even night. That's why they are the most important. Each person has his own important business, some people deal with them in the morning - and is this the secret of success?
4. Work on personal projects
- A great point that reports that a hobby or a dream project in the morning distinguishes successful people. This point seems difficult - in order to fulfill it, you must first overcome the first 3, and then there are 8 more on the list. This is probably why it may seem tempting to someone. But actually, there is no magic in devoting time to a hobby in the morning. A simple advice to have a hobby brings us back to the sacramental: I do a startup in my free time - where is my success?
5. Spend time with your family
- A popular accent in any recommendations for success or just a happy life. This is useful advice for harmonizing life: so that, having achieved success, not be emotionally devastated. But we will be honest with ourselves - people who spend time with their families are much more than people who have achieved success. A large Iranian mother will confirm this to you.
6. Have sex
- A great item, by the way. It does not matter that in the article this is explained by the fact that a successful person is stupid not until that evening after a working day. Served as a secret to success anyway. “Honey, we want to pay the mortgage early?”
7. Arrange business breakfasts with colleagues.
At any business breakfast arranged by a successful person, from 1 to 10 less successful colleagues are present. The bill, it turns out, is not in their favor. A typical “survivor mistake”.
A joke is known on this subject: "We know about the mind and kindness of dolphins from the stories of swimmers whom they pushed to the shore - but we will never learn anything from those whom they pushed in the opposite direction."
8. Meditate
- joyful "Woo-hoo!" came from the esoteric parties. It doesn't matter that most of their visitors are life-lost people: Is Condoleezza Rice doing yoga? This is probably why she became the US Secretary of State. Jobs, however, is not enough for everyone.
9. Write things for which they are grateful.
Yes, lovers of reading mantras today are definitely a holiday. Autotraining is one of the most common examples of surviving errors. If all women on the planet repeat: “I am the most charming, I am the most attractive” - one of them will win the Miss Universe contest. This is inevitable because the competition is annual.
A few words about how luck works:Joseph Banks Rhine, the "ghost hunter," claimed that he managed to select several people with extrasensory abilities from hundreds of test subjects. His statement was based on the incredible results that they showed in guessing the Zener cards. The mistake of the survivor is obvious here: he himself admits that he tested hundreds of people. Obviously, as the subjects grow, the likelihood that one of them will guess more cards than others will increase.
10. Plan strategically important things with a fresh mind.
Advice from the category “Internet survey showed that 100% of participants use the Internet” - it is obvious that all successful people plan important things. The problem is that even the most unlucky people plan important things. It’s just that their plans do not come true.
11. Check mail
“I check my mail every fifteen minutes.” When can I start checking myself on the Forbes list?
12. Read the news
- and here is the joy on the street of office plankton, which everyone reads the news. Most likely, this item was paid to Lenta.ru - after all, there is nothing more pleasant than assuming that if you are informed as Richard Branson, then you are successful as he is.
A simple change of point of view shows that all 12 habits of successful people are no different from the habits of ordinary people or losers. Is a whole book, a popular article and a bunch of translations really completely useless? It turns out that so. It happens even worse: imagine that there would be no smart Romanian head of Abraham Wald at the disposal of American generals - and they would begin to reinforce the wings of their bombers, replenishing the aviation cemetery with airplanes with flawlessly whole wings.
From literate life coaching there will be much more benefit.
- Do you have any complaints about buttons? - Sewn tightly, do not tear.
It's time to reconsider the attitude towards people who like to listen about other people's failures. Not necessarily a miserable misanthrope. It is possible this is a reasonable person. PS If you do not have an account on the hub, you can express your opinion on this article in our blog - SmartTalks