The Internet is at the crossroads, or When the Gold Rush Ends. Part 2

    “... An interesting one is emerging, as the hero of one of the last television series liked to repeat, an oil painting. And I want to sketch out a sketch of this picture with separate strokes. ”

    With these words I finished one of my last notes. The promise must be fulfilled, I sat down for this "oil painting" and began to make strokes. However, my strokes came out rather chaotic, and the picture began to turn out to be some kind of multifaceted, far beyond the previously planned. As a result, the general picture of the social Internet at the present stage of its development began to be visible to me. This, in fact, is an express review of recent events and publications in the field of Web 2.0 with some of my subjective considerations. But even in relation to this area the picture is not quite complete, and not even a picture yet, but only sketches for it.

    In some places it turned out better, in others worse. I put all this in five portions on my iTech Bridge blog, providing it with necessary links. I want to introduce you only to key excerpts from each such sketch. The first and second portions of them on Habré were already laid out . Below are the three remaining ...
    I want to warn those who decide to familiarize themselves with the original. Temporarily, in connection with the transition to another server, all links to iTech Bridge are redirected to At some point, forwarding may be disabled. In this case, contact the temporary storage location of my blog directly . Sorry for any inconvenience.

    portion There, where you can pay for the
    sketch Sketch 23.Information richness of the resource is the main difference between the business and professional web from the mass and entertainment. From my point of view, the most interesting are complex social information-rich resources. Like the traditional mass integrated resources that are now widely heard (MySpace, FaceBook), they combine several social services under one roof. However, in information-rich resources, the composition of these services is more expanded, they should be more organically interconnected, and their main task is to “deliver to the mountain” quality content. Content you can really pay for. After all, it’s not without reason that Gartner suggests that “social networks will become more valuable because of content rather than new-fangled technologies.”

    Sketch 24.Forrester recently published the results of a rather interesting study: who, how and why on social networks works with meaningful information. In the same study, the classification of users of social resources by the criterion of "information activity" is given. Here, researchers identify 6 types of users: creators, critics, drives, readers, viewers, users who only accompany their profiles and passive users who just did that they registered. In this case, it turns out that 80% of the content is generated only by 20% of users. If you read the Forrester report mentioned, you can see that the remaining 80% of users account for no more than 20% of such content. Moreover, only 5 to 10% of users are authors of original and high-quality content.

    Professionals are required.
    Sketch 25. The open areas where professional programmers are so lacking, it seems to me, lie in the field of information-rich social resources and, above all, complex ones. Why do I think that there are no comprehensive information-rich resources yet? Yes, because we see only separately developing areas related to blogs, forums, video and audio content. We can see how the directions associated with the accumulation of links (social bookmarks and social news resources), as well as with developed methods for evaluating information, almost stomp on the spot. If one of the above is included in complex social resources, then he still plays an auxiliary role there.

    Sketch 26.Creating platforms for building information-rich resources is the most interesting task that awaits professional programmers today. There are practically no such platforms now. Therefore, for professional programmers there is no end to the work. This primarily concerns transparent SaaS platforms compatible with Open Social.

    Sketch 27.A new concept began to come into use - splog (a combination of the words spam and blog). It was introduced by Dev Sifri in his April 2007 review of the current state of the blogosphere. So he proposed to name all the garbage that appears in this part of the Internet. I would also add garbage coming from a variety of reference resources like digg and By analogy with the first term, one can call these “junk links” like splink. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, despite the “human face” of collective filtering, it is unlikely to be able to reach a full-fledged “collective mind” without good algorithms for processing the results of user ratings. And this is the task of both mathematicians and cool programmers.
    Growing Time

    Sketch 28.Communication, indeed, while occupying a dominant position on the social Internet. Maybe that is why he remains predominantly youth. For the sake of communication, its efficiency, everything is sacrificed: both the quality of information and privacy. Online (chat) and in-resource (PM) correspondence, often almost private conversations through blogs and forums, began to supplant regular email. Many argue that this mail, in general, will soon die.

    Sketch 29.I liked one paraphrase. The author who brought it pushed off from a Buddhist dictum: "A person who reads with food will not enjoy either one or the other." In the same way, this author noted, a person who writes on his Twitter blog and there at the same time monitors the movement of friends, will not find new friends and lose old ones. They say that social networks are becoming more mobile, go to cellular telephony. Apparently, this is the way it is, but ... the youth-entertaining social network will go there along with its Twitter. But the social web will continue to grow, become more information-rich, more professional and more business.
    Serving Four
    SaaS in the clouds
    Sketch 30.Recently, on one site I met a forecast that, supposedly, 2008 in Runet will be the year of SaaS. “Arrived,” I told myself, and in a good way. It is high time. So, my opponents who claimed that Russia is not compatible with SaaS were not quite right.

    Sketch 31. SaaS. When we pronounce this slightly strange looking abbreviation from Software-as-a-Service, each of us puts our own meaning into it. As, incidentally, in most other key concepts of Web 2.0. However, speaking very formally, SaaS and the Internet, in general, were born on the same day. Moreover, these are absolutely equivalent concepts. After all, any service that the Internet provides us is provided by some remote software. More interesting are the narrower interpretations of the term SaaS.

    Sketch 32. The other day there was information about another profession SaaS. He now acts as a sales agent. Manufacturers of traditional off-line programs have begun providing their simplified online versions for free. How Adobe did it with its Photoshop. The calculation is made on the fact that, having worked with the current demo version of the program, the consumer will sooner or later be faced with the need to buy its extended version.
    Sketch 33.In one of my first SaaS notes, I noticed that in its essence, this direction can be attributed to outsourcing. In our case, it is outsourcing of IT services. The preachers of the new cloud computing ideology are now reaching the same conclusion. This fashionable term, which I would translate as "computing in the clouds," combines all types of IT services that are outsourced and focused on the use of remote online programs. Cloud computing includes, in particular, the concept of SaaS. This also includes his older brother ASP (Application Service Providers). Here we will find “remote data warehouses” from Sun, IBM and Amazon, and all variants of remote API elements, and PaaS (Platform-as-Service).
    About the gun, which still shot
    Sketch 34.Unlike its first partner, IBM, which at one time left the mass market of staffers in corporate B2B, Microsoft seems to be betting on small and medium-sized businesses. In any case, the events of recent weeks testify to this. According to the "Stanislavsky law", a gun that "hung on the wall for a long time" still shot. This time, the role of such a “gun”, as expected, was assigned to MS Live Office. The closed and open beta testing of two new applications, MS Live Office Small Business and MS Live Office Workspace, directly complementing MS Live Office, has completed.
    Sketch 35.On-line office, his attack on SaaS - the Bill Gates market does not end. After all, if you look closely at MS Live Office Small Business, you cannot help but notice that this is nothing more than an on-line version of MS SharePoint server software. This already well-known software package represents the development of the even more famous MS Server 2003, which used to work on local corporate networks and on the Intranet. Recent versions of MS SharePoint are expanded by some social services Web 2.0. Among them are wikis and the widespread use of tags (tagging).

    Sketch 36.I remember there was such a clear illustration of the essence of capitalism. One after another fish swimming, where each next one is larger than the one that is swimming in front. She is going to swallow it. The current M&A processes (mergers and acquisitions) in the Internet business are well displayed by this picture. Yahoo acquires Flickr, and at the same time is itself the target of Microsoft and other market giants. However, if the absorption process is more a solution to financial and legal issues, then the digestion of swallowed is already an organization and technology, and here not everything and does not always go smoothly. In particular, it turns out badly when the same type of poorly compatible services and products appear in one large company that you want to somehow connect with each other, as well as with other services and products.
    Web 2.0 at work
    Sketch 37. It seems that the success of Mashup in mass Web 2.0 turned out to be the lever that has taken the deadlock for corporate SOA. First, off-line programs began to embed various Mashups - tools, which allowed them to communicate with web programs. It can be expected that by gradually mastering the culture of mixed services in this way, developers of corporate off-lane systems will change the way to SOA technologies within these systems. Although there are supporters of a slightly different point of view. They believe that the local SOA will gradually turn into a global SOA, or web-based architecture (WOA). After all, if you look at such a global SOA, you cannot help but notice that this is nothing but another application of the Software + Service concept.

    Sketch 38.Today everyone is talking about Enterprise 2.0 in the West. Therefore, following the logic of developments, I would not be surprised if, say, 2009 in Runet is called the year Enterprise 2.0.

    Figure 39. The question of whether or not to include certain types of resources in the concept of Enterprise 2.0 is largely a purely methodological issue that does not affect the essence of the phenomenon. However, this cannot be said about the use of link services a la digg and in the business. Starting with my article “Why I abstained,” I have so far tried unsuccessfully to prove that in their mass version these services are not suitable for business use.

    Sketch 40.The ancients claimed that everything is back to square one. More recently, I read that corporate web portals are dying. It turned out that no. Just gradually, they began to acquire new qualities. The core of such a new portal is a traditional corporate system (content and document management, resource planning / ERM, customer relationship / CRM, accounting management, a common information system, etc.) integrated with Enterprise 2.0 social services.

    Final serving
    Three, two, or ... still one?
    Sketch 41.Every day there is an increasing number of publications, the authors of which are trying to predict what this long-awaited Web 3.0 will look like. I would break all such publications into two groups. The authors of the first group (let's call it futurological) liken themselves to science fiction writers who are trying to anticipate the technology of the distant future. Many members of our futurological group predict not only the next generation of the Web, but also swing at more distant generations. However, I am still closer to the second group of publications, which I call pragmatic. Pragmatic authors view Web 3.0 not as another revolution on the Web, but rather as a normal evolutionary stage of its development. In other words, “the future is already present in the present,” as one virtual friend of mine claims.
    Sketch 42.Here I want to dwell on only one pragmatic forecast. The authors see it Web 3.0 simply as a new model for the monetization of the social Internet. And the general essence of the business model they are considering is “making money” on a statistical analysis of users' personal information and monitoring all their actions on the social network. The resulting statistics are the subject of trade. The notorious FaceBook Beacon is only the first, so far not very successful attempt to explicitly contrast “targeting vs. privacy ". Slowly but surely heading in the same direction Google with its seemingly innocuous Social Graph and YouTube Insight.
    Sketch 43.One of the generic features of O'Reilly Web 2.0 is the “eternal beta”, in the state of which all resources related to it are constantly present. But no one said that Web 2 itself should always be in beta, that is, in the “zero” state. Tested and that's enough, you need to move on. But seriously, it seems to me that this bacchanalia with numbers will end soon. Everyone will understand that the Internet is still in its first “tube” state, and the “web transistor” is just waiting for its invention. So, unemployment does not threaten futurists yet ...

    In parallel with preparing my sketches for the picture, I gave an interview for LiveIdea. Some of my answers there can also be seen as additional strokes to some of the drafts already presented to your attention.

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