Why is it pointless to write forecasts

    Now in various media and even on Habré a large number of forecasts are published about the rapid development of robotics, unmanned vehicles and alternative energy. People are often overly optimistic and expect some kind of jerk. I suggest looking at what was predicted on Habré, and how they saw the present in the recent past.

    Visualization 2019 (2009) link

    In this video 10 years ago, we see changing price tags, newspapers with electronic ink. What exactly was guessed in the video is that in 2019 there will be a machine on Win XP
    In the comments on this article, Vokabre suggested that by 2015 a 3D advertisement will appear.

    Forecast: 5 innovations in the next 5 years (2011) link

    This article predicts 2016. Short forecast:
    • Energy from the environment
    • Mind reading
    • No spam
    • No passwords
    • The heyday of mobile technology

    Of all the above, only the last forecast came true.

    Robotics revolution begins! (2009) link

    The International Federation of Robotics conducted an analysis and concluded that the robot industry will make great strides starting in 2010 and by 2020 will grow to a market that will be valued at $ 500 billion.
    However, now the robotics market is estimated at $ 40 billion.
    A study published in the scientific journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change says that by 2020, about 40% of the world's armed forces will consist of various kinds of robotic mechanisms, in addition, researchers talk about the potential development of an industry such as robotic prosthetics and implantation.

    In fact, military robotics is massively used only in unmanned aircraft

    Five Future Innovations According to IBM Chief Astrologer (2011) link

    Key points:
    • 3D photos and videos
    • Self-charging battery
    • Utilization of computer heat (come true)
    • Traffic forecasting (come true)
    • Consolidation of information flows (Internet of things)

    Predictions by Raymond Kurzweil (2011) link

    Phones reproduce a three-dimensional holographic image of the interlocutor.

    2014 The
    energy produced by solar panels becomes cheaper than that obtained by burning petroleum products. Household cleaning robots will be widely used.

    As a material object, a computer in the modern sense gives way to ubiquitous compact devices mounted in furniture, sewn into clothes, etc.

    A computer with 10 ^ 13 Bit memory (approximate amount of human brain memory) costs about $ 1,000 (came true)

    The keyboard dies; programs that recognize and synthesize speech allow the computer to conduct a dialogue with the user. Three-dimensional images are projected directly onto the retina, cell phones are sewn into clothes and broadcast sound directly to the subscriber’s eardrums. Deaf people wear glasses, on the inner surface of which transcript of speech of others is displayed. The advertising industry is mastering the technology of delivering personal messages that will be visible to only one addressee.

    Unified World Government.

    The situation with IPv4 (2011) link

    This article described the state of IPv4 in 2011. But it has one prediction
    My personal forecast is that in 2020 at least a third of sites will still respond via IPv4, although 99% will have IPv6
    According to Google statistics for October 2018, IPv6 accounted for about 25% of network traffic. In Russia, commercial use by telecom operators is small (no more than 1% of traffic). The number of sites running op IPv6 can be counted on the fingers.

    Quantum computer as the next step in the development of IT (2012) link

    So, for example, according to the forecasts of futurists at Cisco Systems, a quantum computer should appear by mid-2020; TechCast futurists predict that ubiquitous quantum computers will begin around 2022.
    For 2019, quantum computers are still used for research and have no real commercial use.

    Robotics development forecast from RoboHunter (2015) link

    • Robots will perform operations in 2018
    • Robots will carry out 50% of the work in agriculture 2020
    • Each house will have a robot servant 2020

    Robotics Development Forecast by RoboHunter (2013)

    According to the forecasts of 3D printing researcher Terry Walters, by 2020 the share of finished products in this market will be equal to the share of prototypes. Thus, the technology has now proved its uniqueness and exceptional advantages, confirmed by examples of practices of leading designers and designers.

    By 2019, 3D printers remained the lot of prototyping, or small-scale production. The biggest achievement in this area is the Electron booster, which is printed on a 3D printer.

    Atlas of New Professions (2014) link

    The following professions were offered in this article:

    • System biotechnologist
    • System biotechnologist
    • City farmer.
    • Ecologist urbanist
    • Biopharmacologist
    • GMO agronomist
    • IT Medic
    • Genetic consultant.
    • Medical Robot Operator
    • IT geneticist
    • Network doctor
    • Cosmodrome Engineer

    And finally, the forecast for 2017 from 1968. The truth is not about IT.

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