What shines Crew Dragon Roscosmos

The Crew Dragon spacecraft in unmanned mode docked to the International Space Station after a daily flight. So far, only the Ripley mannequin and 180 kg of cargo have flown on the ship, but if the tests are successful, the first astronauts should leave on it in six months. Today's success is very important for the United States, but it will also have a significant impact on the Russian space program.



After launch and docking, the next important phase of the flight - landing - is expected in five days. A few weeks later, a new launch to test the emergency landing system at the stage of rocket flight in the atmosphere. And only then the spacecraft will receive a safety certificate and the first crew. When the manned Dragon flight becomes a reality, this will mean that the United States regained the ability to fly into space from its territory, which they have not had since 2011. Then the Space Shuttle program ended and Roscosmos took over the delivery of all international crews.

From 2011 to the present, Russian “Unions” fly not only on a sense of mutual assistance and cooperation, but also generously funded by the American side. Under the ISS program, NASA pays for space for American, Canadian, European and Japanese astronauts. At allflights of Americans on Russian Soyuz ships began in the 90s, but then it was exchange flights - in return, Russian cosmonauts flew in shuttles. Since 2006, paid expeditions began. Since then, seven dozen people have flown.

At first, the price tag for astronauts at the Soyuz began with a moderate $ 25 million per seat - a little more expensive than the tickets of the first tourists. However, the program of astronauts is significantly different from entertainment: they need to work, i.e. the preparation is complicated, and the duration of the expedition is not 10 days, but six months. Yes, and NASA clearly had more money than private owners. After the final Space Shuttle flight, “tickets” to Russian ships were constantly getting more expensive. By 2018, the price for one astronaut reached $ 82 million. For example, the cost of the Soyuz rocket and the Soyuz-MS three-seater ship is about $ 70 million, i.e. one astronaut more than paid for the flight for the entire crew.



On average, after 2011, Roscosmos earned $ 300-400 million per year on a “take-off” to the ISS. Considering that the total amount of state funding of Roscosmos (Federal Space Program, defense order, federal target programs) is about $ 3-4 billion a year, it turns out that about 10% of all funding for Russian space exploration was provided by the American manned space program.

Accordingly, if the flow of American "Soyuzodollars" runs out, then Roscosmos will have a choice - to keep the previous production volumes of manned ships at a loss or to reduce the series. It is not planned to increase the Russian crew until the launch of the MLM Nauka module, and without this module they will not make much practical sense. And there are doubts that it will fly at all and will be used regularly. Therefore, the decision of Roscosmos sees in short-term flights everyone who can pay for the flight.

The first group of clients has already been found - a squad of cosmonauts of the United Arab Emirates (the cost of their tickets was not disclosed). The second source of solvent passengers is tourism. Recently, they announced the idea of ​​launching manned ships “along the Gagarin route”, i.e. without docking with the ISS and lasting tens of minutes or several hours. From the point of view of science, such flights will be practically useless, at best suitable for some student projects and cosmonaut training. From a practical point of view, it’s just a job-saving program at RSC Energia and RSC Progress, which produce Soyuz ships and missiles.



A tourist ticket is likely to be cheaper than for NASA, as the flight to the ISS will last no more than 10 days, and the flight without docking is even less. One of the pilots of the spacecraft will always be a professional astronaut, i.e. in one round it will be possible to bring no more than two “vacationers”, this gives the lower bar of the price - at least $ 35 million, any discount will be at the expense of Russian taxpayers. A ten-day tourist flight to the ISS in 2015 was estimated at $ 55 million, which is also lower than NASA payment.

There is also an organizational problem with tourist visits to the ISS: since the ships fly once every 4 months, you can only bring a tourist with one ship and return it to Earth by another, at this time the astronaut who cedes the seat remains at the station until the next flight. So you can’t take more than two tourists a year to live at the station.

It turns out that even if Roscosmos finds new passengers for all future Unions, it will face a 5% reduction in funding, if it does not, then by 10%. A decrease in the number of launched Unions will lead to an increase in their cost to the state budget due to overhead costs.

The problem of Roscosmos is that Elon Musk will be able to compete in space tourism, launching those who wish along the “John Glenn route”, i.e. making short-term flights without docking with the ISS. Now for NASA, the launch of one manned four-seater Dragon is estimated$ 405 million. If we compare with the difference in the commercial cost of missiles ($ 62 million) and launches in the interests of NASA ($ 89-99 million), the commercial launch price for Dragon can be about $ 250 million. If you launch the ship in a seven-seater version and without a professional “driver” , then the price for the flight approaches the same $ 35 million. The use of reusable Falcon 9 stages and inhabited Dragon compartments can promise a price reduction, so here Roscosmos is able to yield to SpaceX.

However, manned space exploration, with rare exceptions, is obviously a loss-making activity, therefore, to the detriment of finances, Roscosmos can preserve its face and former production volumes by returning the practice of exchange flights. So our cosmonauts will gain experience flying Dragon SpaceX and Starliner Boeing, and our officials, according to the old tradition, will be able to publicly emphasize "Americans cannot live without us." True, there is a danger of the “Tesla effect” when car enthusiasts taking a ride on Tesla electric cars lose interest in driving gasoline cars.



In general, one can welcome the success of SpaceX, the world is indeed entering a new era of manned flights, but this does not promise the current leader anything good.