Digest "Internet analytics" (Issue No. 1): Innovation and the labor market
The Internet and its associated markets are the most fertile ground for innovation. Innovation is now spoken everywhere - from school to governments. At the same time, not so many materials have come to my eyes that testify to how innovative economies are developing. The article below provides some relevant materials and studies that will help you understand the current state of things.
At the end of 2015, the “National Report on Innovations in Russia 2015” was published by the Ministry of Economic Development with the participation of an expert council under the government of the Russian Federation, RVC and The Boston Consulting Group.
Some excerpts:
- The share of innovative products in Russia in the total output is 8–9% (in the leading countries ~ 15%) and has not increased over the past 3 years.
- Labor productivity in the Russian economy as a whole is 2 or more times behind the leading countries, there are no positive dynamics.
- The results of Russian innovations still have low competitiveness - 0.4% of Russia's share in the total world export of high-tech goods - while there is a positive trend (in 2010, Russia's share was 0.21%).
- The number of able-bodied people has been rapidly declining since 2006 and it is forecasted that by 2020 it will amount to 80.6 million people, which is about 10 million people less than in 2006.
The main barriers to improving the efficiency of Russia's innovation ecosystem are expressed as follows:
1. Specialists and innovations “flow” from Russia. Business projects grown by the local venture capital market do not find opportunities in Russia and leave the country.
2. Undeveloped institutional environment: the unpopularity of the professions of the scientist, insufficient protection of the rights of owners of innovative companies.
3. There is no single vision of technological priorities, a coordinated technological policy.
4. Innovative and technological policies are formed situationally and their development implementation is coordinated at the level of documents.
5. Lack of a unified system for monitoring the innovation ecosystem and methods for assessing the volume, quality and cost effectiveness of innovation.
Discussion of the report at the Gaidar Economic Forum:
At the same time, it is interesting to compare yourself with others. For example, with Israel, where in 2015 18 local venture funds raised a total of $ 1.52 billion (in 2014 - $ 1.2 billion). The report “Israeli Industry of Innovation and Venture Capital: Results 2015, Forecasts 2016” highlights not only the largest transactions and funds, but also political events that directly affect the development of an innovative economy. And, if in the case of Russia, the lack of unity runs through the whole report, then in Israel - associations and joint R&D sites with other countries are the driver of development.
In turn, changes in the traditional economy can be seen in the atlascreated at Harvard University. The resource allows you to build infographics on which data on world trade are graphically presented. Below are pictures for Russia.
According to the atlas, in 2014, Russian exports amounted to $ 555 billion. Crude and refined oil - 57% of exports, gas and coal - 10%. If we take into account metals, fuel and ore account for almost 80% of Russian exports. Import of goods is about $ 300 billion per year.
In fairness it is worth noting that Harvard data does not beat dataCentral Bank of Russia. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in 2014 Russia exported goods worth $ 498 billion and imported $ 308 billion. In 2015, both import and export volumes decreased significantly, but official statistics have not yet been published. It must be admitted that Russia is losing its main trading partners and it is extremely difficult to build “import substitution” in such conditions.
However, Bloombergin mid-January, announced that Russia took 12th place among the world's innovative economies in the Innovation Index. The first place was taken by South Korea. It is followed by Germany, Sweden, Japan and Switzerland. The top ten most innovative countries also include Singapore, Finland, USA, Denmark and France. This year Russia is on the 12th line, last year it was on the 14th. China took 21st place, which was explained by the fact of copying technologies, but not by the invention of its own.
Given what is happening with the Russian economy, it is logical to complete the material with a description of the situation on the labor market. HeadHunter published a studyaccording to the results of 2015, in which it was reported that the ideal candidate of 2015 is an experienced sales specialist. The most difficult period last year (and probably this one too) is spring: the number of vacancies decreased by 22%. Competition rose to 12 resumes in place. The IT sector is resistant to the crisis - demand during the year did not fall by less than 25% even in the most difficult times. The trend for distance employment is growing. 1C: Bitrix in its studytalk about the explosive growth of remote work in Russia in the next 5 years. By 2020, every 5th employee of the company will work remotely. The total savings from this transition will be more than 1 trillion rubles. In addition, 68% of the companies surveyed say that the size of the salary does not depend on whether an employee works in the office or not, and in 12% of the companies, remote workers get even more office workers.
Programmers work remotely - 51%, customer support staff (38%), designers (27%), analysts (15%) and finance department employees (15%).
Along with remote employment, the problem of replacing human employees with robots is becoming ever more evident. McKinsey published a study, the main conclusion of which is the thesis that it is possible to automate not only 45% of work, but also 5% of jobs, which means that we will have to compete not only with each other, but also with robots that do not sleep, do not go on vacation and on sick leave and do not ask for a raise. About who will have the hardest and easiest in this unequal struggle can be found in the article HBR . Report
released at Davos World Economic Forum a week agoabout the future of the labor market. Russia was not expected to be among the fifteen countries whose experience was studied at the research stage, but the conclusions - partly directly, and partly indirectly - apply to Russia. There is a fourth industrial revolution. New places are created, but slower than disappearing. In the next 5 years, we will lose about 5 million jobs - mainly “mental” workers. The fourth industrial revolution is different in speed from the third and second. The change of “regime” will occur in 5-10 years, and not in a generation, as before. “You need to run very fast to stay in place” ...
General information about global studies of the impact of the Internet on the economy can be found in the article “Internet analytics” (Zero issue)
At the end of 2015, the “National Report on Innovations in Russia 2015” was published by the Ministry of Economic Development with the participation of an expert council under the government of the Russian Federation, RVC and The Boston Consulting Group.
Some excerpts:
- The share of innovative products in Russia in the total output is 8–9% (in the leading countries ~ 15%) and has not increased over the past 3 years.
- Labor productivity in the Russian economy as a whole is 2 or more times behind the leading countries, there are no positive dynamics.
- The results of Russian innovations still have low competitiveness - 0.4% of Russia's share in the total world export of high-tech goods - while there is a positive trend (in 2010, Russia's share was 0.21%).
- The number of able-bodied people has been rapidly declining since 2006 and it is forecasted that by 2020 it will amount to 80.6 million people, which is about 10 million people less than in 2006.
The main barriers to improving the efficiency of Russia's innovation ecosystem are expressed as follows:
1. Specialists and innovations “flow” from Russia. Business projects grown by the local venture capital market do not find opportunities in Russia and leave the country.
2. Undeveloped institutional environment: the unpopularity of the professions of the scientist, insufficient protection of the rights of owners of innovative companies.
3. There is no single vision of technological priorities, a coordinated technological policy.
4. Innovative and technological policies are formed situationally and their development implementation is coordinated at the level of documents.
5. Lack of a unified system for monitoring the innovation ecosystem and methods for assessing the volume, quality and cost effectiveness of innovation.
Discussion of the report at the Gaidar Economic Forum:
At the same time, it is interesting to compare yourself with others. For example, with Israel, where in 2015 18 local venture funds raised a total of $ 1.52 billion (in 2014 - $ 1.2 billion). The report “Israeli Industry of Innovation and Venture Capital: Results 2015, Forecasts 2016” highlights not only the largest transactions and funds, but also political events that directly affect the development of an innovative economy. And, if in the case of Russia, the lack of unity runs through the whole report, then in Israel - associations and joint R&D sites with other countries are the driver of development.
In turn, changes in the traditional economy can be seen in the atlascreated at Harvard University. The resource allows you to build infographics on which data on world trade are graphically presented. Below are pictures for Russia.
According to the atlas, in 2014, Russian exports amounted to $ 555 billion. Crude and refined oil - 57% of exports, gas and coal - 10%. If we take into account metals, fuel and ore account for almost 80% of Russian exports. Import of goods is about $ 300 billion per year.
In fairness it is worth noting that Harvard data does not beat dataCentral Bank of Russia. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in 2014 Russia exported goods worth $ 498 billion and imported $ 308 billion. In 2015, both import and export volumes decreased significantly, but official statistics have not yet been published. It must be admitted that Russia is losing its main trading partners and it is extremely difficult to build “import substitution” in such conditions.
However, Bloombergin mid-January, announced that Russia took 12th place among the world's innovative economies in the Innovation Index. The first place was taken by South Korea. It is followed by Germany, Sweden, Japan and Switzerland. The top ten most innovative countries also include Singapore, Finland, USA, Denmark and France. This year Russia is on the 12th line, last year it was on the 14th. China took 21st place, which was explained by the fact of copying technologies, but not by the invention of its own.
Given what is happening with the Russian economy, it is logical to complete the material with a description of the situation on the labor market. HeadHunter published a studyaccording to the results of 2015, in which it was reported that the ideal candidate of 2015 is an experienced sales specialist. The most difficult period last year (and probably this one too) is spring: the number of vacancies decreased by 22%. Competition rose to 12 resumes in place. The IT sector is resistant to the crisis - demand during the year did not fall by less than 25% even in the most difficult times. The trend for distance employment is growing. 1C: Bitrix in its studytalk about the explosive growth of remote work in Russia in the next 5 years. By 2020, every 5th employee of the company will work remotely. The total savings from this transition will be more than 1 trillion rubles. In addition, 68% of the companies surveyed say that the size of the salary does not depend on whether an employee works in the office or not, and in 12% of the companies, remote workers get even more office workers.
Programmers work remotely - 51%, customer support staff (38%), designers (27%), analysts (15%) and finance department employees (15%).
Along with remote employment, the problem of replacing human employees with robots is becoming ever more evident. McKinsey published a study, the main conclusion of which is the thesis that it is possible to automate not only 45% of work, but also 5% of jobs, which means that we will have to compete not only with each other, but also with robots that do not sleep, do not go on vacation and on sick leave and do not ask for a raise. About who will have the hardest and easiest in this unequal struggle can be found in the article HBR . Report
released at Davos World Economic Forum a week agoabout the future of the labor market. Russia was not expected to be among the fifteen countries whose experience was studied at the research stage, but the conclusions - partly directly, and partly indirectly - apply to Russia. There is a fourth industrial revolution. New places are created, but slower than disappearing. In the next 5 years, we will lose about 5 million jobs - mainly “mental” workers. The fourth industrial revolution is different in speed from the third and second. The change of “regime” will occur in 5-10 years, and not in a generation, as before. “You need to run very fast to stay in place” ...
General information about global studies of the impact of the Internet on the economy can be found in the article “Internet analytics” (Zero issue)