Danish bankers predict introduction of unconditional income in Europe
Danish online investment bank Saxo Bank has released a list of its annual Glaring Predictions, in which bank analysts make predictions of important, from their point of view, events for the coming year. Among them are the introduction of unconditional income in Europe and the strengthening of the ruble.
Unconditional income in Europe . According to the calculations of European experts, about a quarter of the European population (123 million people) are dangerously close to the poverty line, and unemployment has exceeded 10%. In light of these indicators, the European government should seriously engage in the introduction of unconditional income.
In Spain, the populist party of Podemos supports this idea. In the Netherlands, a limited experiment using unconditional income will take place earlier this year . In Finlandthe government is also developing a plan to introduce universal social benefits.
Bank analysts predict that both the current economic situation and the introduction of unconditional income will lead to a serious decline in the luxury goods market. They forecast a 50% drop in sales for this market leader, LVMH.
Record El Nino . 2015 was the hottest year in the history of observations. Some experts believe that 2016 will not lag far behind him, El Nino in 2016 will be the strongest in history, which will negatively affect water supply in Asia and Australia, and agribusiness around the world.
EURUSD = 1.23. Analysts believe that as a result of the actions of the US Federal Reserve, the dollar will weaken, and as a result, the euro will rise to $ 1.23. At the moment, it is about $ 1.09.
The ruble will strengthen by 20%. In last year’s predictions, analysts predicted a default for Russia. Now the situation has changed, and amid the dollar, which should weaken, the expected rise in oil prices and investment in the Russian economy, experts are waiting for the strengthening of the Russian currency.
Decline in startup financing . In 2015, venture capitalists uploaded a lot of money to startups, including the so-called "Unicorns" - projects whose value is estimated at a billion dollars and above. Now, according to analysts, the situation is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and investors are beginning to realize that the money invested is not coming back.
Among other predictions - the rise of emerging markets, led by Brazil, which will host the Olympics this year; Democrats will remain in power in the United States; under OPEC pressure, oil prices will return to $ 100 per barrel;
Characteristically, not a single prediction made a year ago by Saxo Bank analysts came true. Among the predictions for 2015 were: the default of Russia; drop in online sales due to hackers; China devaluation of the renminbi by 20%; 5% inflation in Japan; collapse of the UK real estate market.