Robotaxis can make owning a car meaningless

Robomobiles have not yet reached public roads, and scientists and analysts are already exploring possible aspects of their operation. The results of a new study show that after Robotaxis on electricity become widespread, owning your own car can become an unnecessary luxury, since new vehicles will cost much less than your own car. True, this will happen no earlier than 2030, so for now you should not refuse a car in your garage.

The authors of the study in question argue that traveling on an electric taxi car with an automatic control system will be a cheap pleasure. According to some analysts, as early as 2030, 95% of passengers will move from point A to point B upon request. That is, the need arose, called an electric taxi, and drove off. Savings, compared with owning your own car, promise a solid - up to 5600 US dollars per year. That is, if you choose Robotaxi, a year a person will save as much money as would be enough for a good used car in the USA.



Now, most futurologist predictions regarding electric cars are made taking into account the linear relationship. But not everyone agrees with this. In particular, this is the opinion of James Airbib, a venture investor from London, one of the co-authors of the study "Rethinking Transporation . "He says, in particular, that technology develops non-linearly, qualitative changes occur quite often with a transition to a new level of development.



According to the report, the legislative framework governing the operation of robomobiles should be prepared by officials of different countries. This view agrees with forecasts most scientists who claim that the mass exit of robomobiles on the roads will happen in 2020-2025, after which the trend of replacing conventional cars with smart cars will only intensify. Camping on the preparation of an appropriate legislative framework. In the first place, this applies to the UK and a number of US states (eg, California).

The authors of the study welcome the development of robotic vehicles, since, in their opinion, this will dramatically reduce the number of accidents, including fatalities for participants in such accidents.

10 years after reliable robomobiles begin to appear on the roads of different countries, and officials create a positive legislative atmosphere for such vehicles, what is mentioned above will happen. Namely, if even someone in the garage will have their own car, then anyway, this person will spend most of his trips on robotic taxis operating on electricity.

This will also happen because in the future transport services will be provided as a service on a much larger scale than now. At the same time, a trip by private car per 1 mile will cost 4-10 times more expensive than a trip by robotaxi. Well, a joint trip with other passengers (when using services like UberPool) will cost only about 3 cents per mile.

Cars themselves will be cheaper for several reasons. Firstly, since robomobiles are much less likely to get into accidents, then insurance will be cheaper. In addition, robotaxis are likely to be constantly involved, which means cheaper travel costs (now a private car is used 4% of the time, the rest of the time is simple). There are, of course, exceptions, but not many. Plus, electric charging is cheaper than refueling at gas stations, and in the future the downward trend will be more noticeable. The electric car requires less attention to itself in terms of service, which will also reduce service costs and ultimately the cost of the trip.

In an ordinary car with an internal combustion engine, thousands of moving parts. In an electric car there are much fewer of them, which means less, compared with cars with ICE, the number of breakdowns. The release of a large amount of heat and vibration from a running engine also leads to a faster than vehicle failure. On average, a car with an internal combustion engine can last 320 thousand kilometers. Electric car - 800 thousand kilometers and more.

This means that transport companies of the future, which will work with electricity-powered robots, will be able to spend less money and effort on servicing the entire fleet of vehicles. The cost of miles / kilometers will be much lower than in the case of a conventional taxi fleet. And of course, when an ordinary person sees that a taxi is cheaper for him than his own car, and much cheaper, in most cases (not all) the choice will be made in favor of a taxi.


So far, robotic cars look like this

Ultimately, this will have a significant impact on the economy. The oil and gas industry, for example, will lose its main consumer. Many professional drivers will have to redesign. In the general case, according to the authors of the study, the spread of robotic vehicles with electric motors will help expand the current volume of the global economy.

“It seems to me that sooner or later the time will come when we will come to the decision to ban driving cars“ manually ”in the city,” the authors of the study say. Or special roads and places will be created. Once it has been proven (over time) that robomobiles are safer than normal riding, public opinion may change, and the concept of driving robots will be adopted.

The full report can be found here..