March 18, 2017 at 22:39Accelerating technology diffusion and impact
A March 1 blog post by Bank of England economists read:
“There is growing concern in the global technology community caused by the poor readiness of developed economies for the next industrial revolution. Its offensive may mean the replacement of millions of mostly low-skilled workers, the collapse of many long-existing but slowly adapting companies, a significant increase in the difference in the income of society and a growing industrial concentration associated with a sharp increase in the relatively small number of multinational technology corporations.
Economists, analyzing the course of previous industrial revolutions, note that not all of these risks occur. However, this approach may underestimate the substantially different nature of the technological advances taking place at present, in the sense of their significantly greater industrial and professional values and the speed of their diffusion .
For this reason, it would be a mistake to reject the risks associated with these new technologies, recognizing them as insignificant . ”
Mauricio Armellini and Tim Pike, Bank Underground - Bank of England staff blog
Pay attention to the mention of the change in the diffusion rate of technologies - the time during which they begin to be actively used by most consumers (they are used by most of the fourth level, late majority users in the Rogers model of consumer innovation diffusion). Figure 1 shows the change in this speed over the past 110 years.
The key technology that increases the angles of inclination of curves, making them almost vertical lines is the Internet. Consumers, throughvanity fairs, likes, sharers and reposts, learn about the unique consumer characteristics of products and want the same new gadget. On the other hand, the rate of technology’s integration in our lives is affected by the increase in the rate of decline in their value (figure in the header).
This, in turn, is greatly affected by the increase in the degree of automation of production and the acceleration of the diffusion of production technologies (Figure 2).
Key question: what will happen next?
And here the Bank of England economists in the quote above warn: neither with the distribution of conveyors and electrification in 1870, nor with the spread of automation in 1970 there were these super-fast trajectories in the form of the letter J, when the technology is born - and in a few years it becomes the company's key competitive advantage (and then industry and the national economy). Over the same few years, another company that did not have time to adapt and integrate technology into daily activities is dying. “Back in 2011, Foxconn representatives said that in the next 3-5 years, the company will replace 500,000 workers in China with 1 million robots. The process of large-scale automation began in March 2016, when 60,000 people were laid off at one of the factories, and 40,000 Foxbots were equipped with several factories in China. Then it became known about Foxconn's plans to increase the number of robotics by 20-30% annually. These rates are in line with the development standards for robotics in China, which is one of the three leaders in introducing industrial robots. ”
It’s all about the angle of inclination of the diffusion curve, Bank of England economists tell us, and attention to key technologies that change labor productivity, the quality of company products and the speed of their introduction to the market as quickly as possible.
It's all about the speed of diffusion and the company's readiness to quickly integrate key technologies.
At the employee level, it’s all about the speed of their training. In fact, we see, among other meanings, on the given graphs of learning curves of companies and company teams.
Whoever quickly learned to use the new technology at the lowest cost - he survived.
Welcome to life in the form of the letter J. Who is not ready - disappears, C'est La Vie.
“There is growing concern in the global technology community caused by the poor readiness of developed economies for the next industrial revolution. Its offensive may mean the replacement of millions of mostly low-skilled workers, the collapse of many long-existing but slowly adapting companies, a significant increase in the difference in the income of society and a growing industrial concentration associated with a sharp increase in the relatively small number of multinational technology corporations.
Economists, analyzing the course of previous industrial revolutions, note that not all of these risks occur. However, this approach may underestimate the substantially different nature of the technological advances taking place at present, in the sense of their significantly greater industrial and professional values and the speed of their diffusion .
For this reason, it would be a mistake to reject the risks associated with these new technologies, recognizing them as insignificant . ”
Mauricio Armellini and Tim Pike, Bank Underground - Bank of England staff blog
Pay attention to the mention of the change in the diffusion rate of technologies - the time during which they begin to be actively used by most consumers (they are used by most of the fourth level, late majority users in the Rogers model of consumer innovation diffusion). Figure 1 shows the change in this speed over the past 110 years.
The key technology that increases the angles of inclination of curves, making them almost vertical lines is the Internet. Consumers, through
This, in turn, is greatly affected by the increase in the degree of automation of production and the acceleration of the diffusion of production technologies (Figure 2).
Key question: what will happen next?
And here the Bank of England economists in the quote above warn: neither with the distribution of conveyors and electrification in 1870, nor with the spread of automation in 1970 there were these super-fast trajectories in the form of the letter J, when the technology is born - and in a few years it becomes the company's key competitive advantage (and then industry and the national economy). Over the same few years, another company that did not have time to adapt and integrate technology into daily activities is dying. “Back in 2011, Foxconn representatives said that in the next 3-5 years, the company will replace 500,000 workers in China with 1 million robots. The process of large-scale automation began in March 2016, when 60,000 people were laid off at one of the factories, and 40,000 Foxbots were equipped with several factories in China. Then it became known about Foxconn's plans to increase the number of robotics by 20-30% annually. These rates are in line with the development standards for robotics in China, which is one of the three leaders in introducing industrial robots. ”
It’s all about the angle of inclination of the diffusion curve, Bank of England economists tell us, and attention to key technologies that change labor productivity, the quality of company products and the speed of their introduction to the market as quickly as possible.
It's all about the speed of diffusion and the company's readiness to quickly integrate key technologies.
At the employee level, it’s all about the speed of their training. In fact, we see, among other meanings, on the given graphs of learning curves of companies and company teams.
Whoever quickly learned to use the new technology at the lowest cost - he survived.
Welcome to life in the form of the letter J. Who is not ready - disappears, C'est La Vie.