NASA and NOAA: 2016 - the third consecutive record-breaking hot in the history of meteorological observations

In 2016, temperatures on the Earth's surface were the highest since the first climate records were recorded in 1800. This conclusion was reached by experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ).

According to NASA, the global average temperatures in the past year were 0.99 ° higher than in the middle of the 20th century and 0.12 ° higher than in 2015. Information from NOAA confirms a warming of 0.04 ° compared to 2015. On the other hand, NOAA is confident in its forecast of 62%, while NASA estimates 2016 as the warmest with 96% confidence. In any case, 2016 is the third year in a row that sets a new record for global average surface temperatures.

But why are agency results different? NASA's analyzes include measurements of the surface temperature of the Earth from 6.3 thousand weather stations, as well as data from ships on sea surface temperature. In addition, Antarctic research stations have an impact on NASA's forecast. The entire set of such “raw” data is subsequently analyzed using an algorithm that takes into account various temperature ranges from stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could distort the general conclusions. The result of these calculations is an estimate of the global average temperature difference compared with the base period 1951-1980.


Graph of changes in the annual temperature cycle from 1880 to 2015 compared to the average temperature in the same period

NOAA experts, in turn, used most of the same raw data on temperature, but with a different base period, as well as methods different from NASA methods for analyzing the polar regions of the Earth and global temperature. Interestingly, the World Meteorological Organization , comparing the average temperature in 2016 with the reporting period 1961-1990, came to the conclusion that this indicator rose by 0.88 °.

As weather stations and measurement methods change over time, there is some uncertainty in the interpretation of specific global differences in average temperatures from year to year. In the new millennium, the annual temperature record was broken five times - in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016.


Changes in global temperature since 1880

Temperature jumped to new national highs in parts of India, Kuwait and Iran, while sea ice melted faster than ever in the Arctic, according to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Europe and Asia recorded their third hottest year in history, while Australia celebrated its warmest year over a century ago. In the Arctic, the average annual sea ice area was 10.2 million km ² - the lowest annual average for the entire history of recording.

Record high temperatures persisted in each of the first eight months of this year. The main reason for the growth of NOAA scientists call the burning of fossil fuels - oil and natural gas, in which methane and other greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere.

Another factor determining the increase in average temperatures is the warming of the Pacific Ocean as a result of El Niño , which, experts believe, exacerbates the current state of things. El Nino comes and goes, but the warmth remains: the consequences of the last appearance in 2015 were the most serious for the last 20 years - since 1993, the annual rise in water in the World Ocean was 3-5 mm, and in 2016 it reached 15 mm .

However, among scientists, opinions about the influence of El Nino on the increase in average temperatures on the Earth’s surface differ. Peter Stott, Acting Director of the British Bureau of Meteorology at the Hadley Center, believes that El Niño's role in global warming is greatly exaggerated. The main contribution to warming over the past 150 years is the human influence on the climate, associated with an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

His colleague Piers Forster of the Priestley International Climate Observation Center agrees with Peter Stott: “Even if you exclude data on El Nino, 2016 will still remain the warmest ever recorded.”

Climate change is one of the most important problems of the 21st century; it does not show any signs of slowing down its development. As one of the most important solutions to this issue, some scientists consider the reduction of humanity's dependence on fossil fuels and the transition to renewable energy sources. This process is quite complicated and costly, but in the long run should bear fruit.