The dynamics of the situation: how it was in 2008


    As promised yesterday in the article “Download: system, export problems down, crisis and behavior strategy” , we continue the conversation.

    Yesterday we talked about what, from our point of view, behavioral patterns are typical for business and government in crisis situations. And also, I want to highlight this separately and repeat: you and me, this applies first of all.

    Intellectual work employees (as comrades Peter Drucker and Philip Kotler have identified all IT employees and engineers) and representatives of the middle-class population tending to zero in population — goal number 1 for everyone who has leverage in their hands: we have money, we can and we can, it’s left to cut down the opportunity to adequately analyze the situation and we can continue to “lend money” and “form a point of view”.

    World Crisis !! 111 Ahhhhhh! Everything is lost! Urgently need to change rubles and hryvnia to dollars. To buy buckwheat, salt, matches and a potbelly stove. This is not the time, not the time now to think about something else, when the world is dominated by geopolitical wars, Ebola and ISIS! At the same time, somehow such a simple idea always dispenses with the party that:

    A simulated crisis of the world economy does not automatically mean a crisis of each specific person.

    However, now they are trying to lower the “Crisis Situation” from above - clogging our brains with information flows. Exactly at the time of writing this article, one of us got a call from his good friend, who was very worried about the crisis. For 15 minutes we talked with a person, translating emotions into facts.

    Damn it, emotions are exactly what our government systems seem to be leading us to. A clogged brain is more easily controlled by emotions.

    Let's go back a bit and define the word crisis.

    If we have a clear goal, there is a resource and we know how to achieve the goal - this is the task. If there is a goal and a resource, but not a solution, this is a problem. Speaking about solving a problem, we usually talk about finding a solution - a way to achieve the goal or review the goal itself. But when there is no way to solve and there is no resource to search for this very method - this is a crisis. A crisis is a situation in which there are no resources to solve a problem / task and to find another way to solve it.

    Did any of you have tasks yesterday that you have no way to handle? Your tasks, not global ones. Yours. Not? You are working. Continue to complete the tasks. Yes, some of the projects will have to be suspended. Some even freeze. This is called project portfolio management. AND? Where is your personal crisis?

    Now the information flows are trying to take away your resource - time (TV, emotions) and money (aah, we urgently need to buy a new cabinet until the national currency has completely depreciated).

    At the same time, people make qualitative leaps during the crisis:
    • Sergei Korolev, who in the first years after World War II creates a ballistic missile that has no analogues
    • William Deming, who revolutionized post-war Japan as a production
    • Vladimir Zvorykin, who, having left for the USA, invented the kinescope when the Great Depression raged
    • Max Factor is an Odessa emigrant who fled from the civil war in Russia, opened a makeup company, and became a world-famous brand of cosmetics

    But far to go - take 2008. The global crisis, the war of Russia with Georgia, which has appropriated the Russian stock market. The first thing companies are cutting back during the crisis is budgets for marketing, training, travel, and other non-manufacturing activities.

    And exactly this year, one of us opens his training company, and the second begins to engage in sales training for a large training center. It would seem conditions are worse. But if you think about it - how much then you managed to do everything! New programs, new projects - and this is against the background when the others groaned about the crisis around.

    What did our colleagues do at this moment? They sat in their places and did not twitch. What happened after 2 years? We filled our first bumps and reached a new level of income, business and pleasure from work. Colleagues continued to sit where they sat. On the same frozen salaries, but in conditions when money began to cost less.

    Real life story

    One of our students at the time of the 2008 crisis appeared on the market (his salary was too high to maintain the desired margin in the project). He came to a neighboring outsourcing company with the words: “Give work.”

    Since there was no work during the crisis, they lifted up their hands. As a result, he got less money for a job that he excelled in qualifications, but which required long-term business trips.

    Two weeks later, he went on a business trip to the customer for two months. Since the technical competence of the person and his English were at the level, then these two months he actively communicated with the customer - about their business, needs for crisis, marketing, etc.

    As a result, he returned with a new project, the leader of which he became. The project was the development of solutions for stock markets, which during the crisis just earn the most due to the increasing number of transactions.

    An example above that will lead us to the definition of a “bifurcation point”

    The year 2008, the crisis of which many companies competently used to get rid of uninteresting and unprofitable projects, and only improved their own business. Yes, I had to work more to get up on the remaining projects, but there are not one or two such examples.

    And another model: cost reduction due to “cutting the pool of resources”: yes, you correctly translated this consulting speech turn for yourself - staff reduction. And it looked especially cynical in the case of the outsourcing business, which went on the principle of “cutting off those on whom the company earns less” —that is, the highest paid specialists. Business is nothing personal. Product marketers, whose business is several times more stable than outsourcing, competently took advantage of this, because along with the foam and overrated "specialists" in the market were people with unique skills and expertise. And if they turned out to be flexible in terms of conditions (by the way, as an example, which is given above), then many of them found very interesting projects in new companies - in companies that in the crisis were able to hire those

    The “bifurcation point” in systems theory is an unstable or critical state from which the system either goes to a fundamentally new level, or remains at the previous level to the next and usually quite long period of time.

    That is, we either “slow down” and weave for a couple of years at the same “slowed down” speed (well, how about the crisis ...), or calmly “add gas” to move to the next orbit like an electron. New project, new customer, new product or new business.

    In terms of a system such as “man,” the bifurcation point is described by people as an extremely incomprehensible state with an unclear future. That is, it is not clear what to do, it is not clear where to go, and how many buckwheat or square meters in the new building under construction in the steppe need to be purchased. A familiar state, right?

    The crisis for us, ordinary people, with everyday tasks and more or less defined plans (family, home, children, rest and peace to see), is simply a “bifurcation point”. In which you can slow down by pressing your head to the shoulders. Or choose any manageable strategy: a method of action that depends only on you and does not depend (as in the case of buying a currency) on external factors that we do not control.

    We offer our solution, our sustainable strategy, which helped us and our students - get away from the noise of information into learning with your head. Load your input channel with the information that is guaranteed to be necessary and useful for you. Knowledge, skills. Thus, you are simultaneously closed from the flow of uncontrollable external information, the task of which is to add emotions to everyone and solve the long-term task of reaching a new level of a professional career.

    The only investment that does not depreciate is investing in yourself. The only asset that is very difficult to take away and, at the same time, your working tool that needs to be updated and honed is your brain and your ability to manage it.

    We offer a new, annual training program from the Stratoplan School of Managers, the announcement of which will take place on December 16th (Tuesday, a week later) at 11-00 Moscow time.

    Register and come:

    Where we are and what we have ahead:

    What we have figured out:
    • How does a state or business level system behave towards you at the time of crisis
    • How the situation developed in 2008 and counter-examples of crisis thinking, behavior and results

    What else will be in this material cycle:
    • The solution is in statics: counterloading with information that is verified and useful in the future (knowledge) + the learning process itself helps to reduce situational anxiety, since the head is busy with the assimilation of information and its structuring into a storage system
    • The solution is dynamic: your efforts must be capitalized. The transition between theory and practice is to increase your income and change positions to more responsible ones. Our offer: a long-term training and transition program.

    On December 16th (BT), at 11-00 Moscow time, we will conduct an online presentation of the new annual training program for the Stratoplan School of Managers.

    Register now so as not to miss or forget: it is free and takes less than 30 seconds:

    Do not switch. Until the day after tomorrow.

    Alexander Orlov, Glory Pankratov
    Stratoplan School of Managers

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