Tear down the tower


    Experts in the field of TV and the Internet give a forecast: how we will watch television in a few years, the

    Internet entered our lives in the mid-1990s, and television in the mid-1950s. It is not surprising that these two technologies have long been at different poles of the information world. Television was a means to convey information to a wide range of people, and the philosophy of the Internet came down to two-way contacts between people.

    But at some point, TV and the Internet began to merge with each other. Now, with the help of TVs, people work with e-mail and go to Skype, and on computers they watch football broadcasts and TV shows online. It can be difficult to answer the question whether you are watching a “telly” or sitting on the net. And at the junction of the two technologies, a lot of products and services appear - it happened with the CDN, which we do.

    What will happen next? What will television become in the age of the internet? We asked four experts from different industries related to both TV and the Internet at the same time. Rikor-TV sells television equipment, My Planet TV channels and the TV Center organize TV broadcasts in various formats, and we, CDNvideo , help to carry out TV broadcasts on the Internet.

    What devices for watching TV will be the most popular in the future?

    Aleksey Azarevich, ex-adviser to the CEO of Rikor-TV:

    “Along with Smart TV, TV set-top boxes (Dongle set-top box) will be used. Already, there are devices in a miniature form factor with an HDMI output that act as a thin client: you can connect peripheral devices to them and fully work with documents and multimedia. Such gadgets will gain popularity among viewers, since now the number of Internet users in Russia is more than 72 million people and 40 million are watching online video (according to comScore for 2013).

    Hybrid set-top boxes (STBs) will also be distributed. Through them you can watch satellite TV, digital television and television via the Internet. I think they will find their consumer. It doesn’t matter what to connect them to - a TV or monitor. Television will not be associated with a particular type of screen. ”

    Sergey Koshlyakov, General Director of My Planet TV Channel:

    “People gather and watch movies on TV, news, entertainment programs, and technologies for getting content into the“ TV ”are not important here at all - it's just a method of socialization and leisure. Television watching is a tradition that is deeply rooted in society, and it will not change soon. Only 10% of the TV audience is ready to independently choose for themselves what they want from a huge offer of content. The rest do not want to take any action, except for switching the buttons on the remote control within 10 favorite channels. This means that the TV, as a device with a large screen and easy navigation, will remain the main means of consuming content for a long time. It may become three-dimensional, but retain ease of use. ”

    Igor Shmakov, Head of Information Technology Service, TV Center:

    “If you dream up, in 10 years everything will be like the classics of the science fiction brothers Strugatsky in the book“ Midday XXII Century ”. There will be an opportunity not only to watch the “picture” in 3D, but also to smell, taste and touch. There will be a full effect of presence. ”

    Yaroslav Gorodetsky, CEO of CDNvideo:

    SMART TVs (Smart TV)
    “Among the devices for home viewing, there will be an active struggle between the standards of access to content. Telecommunications operators, TV manufacturers and even Internet companies are claiming their share of the pie. For example, Google recently released its TV set-top box to watch YouTube videos. But it seems to me that the manufacturers of TVs will win, because the power of habit and ergonomics play for them - most users simply do not want to have an extra device at home. But for this to happen, TV manufacturers are encouraged to adopt a common application standard for Smart TV. ”

    What technologies will become drivers for television in the Internet age?

    Alexey Azarevich, ex-adviser to the CEO of Rikor-TV:

    “Watching legal video content is many times easier than pirated content, and in the future it will become 90% free for the user, because when switching from viewing pirated content to viewing legal content, the most convenient monetization model is advertising. But for companies to be able to display legal content, they will need to be protected. If this is not done, then the copyright holders will not work with you (recently, because of this, a good online movie theater with legal content “Divan TV” turned out to be on the verge of closure). Already, online cinemas use DRM systems (Widevine, Adobe DRM), including to protect content from partners who bring TV set-top boxes to the market. ”

    Sergey Koshlyakov, General Director of My Planet TV Channel:

    “There are lots of technologies that allow you to develop personalized advertising on TV. Already now it is possible with 90 percent probability to determine the portrait of the viewer by his IP, and after that start completely different communications with him in the field of promoting goods and services. But for these technologies to gain popularity, a complete change of the modern generation of advertising technologists is needed. In the meantime, it is believed that personal advertising is too expensive, and the advertiser and his agent smear advertising with a thin layer for the entire audience. ”

    Igor Shmakov, Head of Information Technology Service, “TV Center”:

    “In about 10 years, television will use Internet delivery of content as the main or only means. I mean, including the mobile Internet. Already, there are several operators that provide access to subscription content from mobile devices, and with the ability to automatically adjust the picture quality to the channel width. "

    Yaroslav Gorodetsky, General Director of CDNvideo:

    “What will happen to TV in the future can be called the heyday of personal content. I mean the content selected for each specific person. People are too lazy to always choose what they like from the huge sea of ​​video, as it happens in modern VOD services. Therefore, for people, the choice of content will be done by a recommendation service that creates a personal television channel for a person or for his family as a whole. Recommendations services began to appear 6-7 years ago, but now it is time for them to begin to develop more actively than ever before. ”

    Of course, we asked ourselves. How will CDN develop?

    Alexey Azarevich, ex-adviser to the CEO of Rikor-TV:

    “The CDN network is, first of all, the delivery of content to the end user with maximum quality. Now is a good time for the emergence of new models for consuming video content, and the Russian market proves this: Russia is the largest market in terms of the number of online video users in Europe (according to ComScore as of July 2013, about 60 million users watch videos online every month). Online video audience growth is expected to be 18% per year. In my opinion, the growth dynamics will continue and will grow. This means that CDN networks will also expand, thereby pleasing end users and providing decent access to legal content. ”

    Sergey Koshlyakov, General Director of My Planet TV Channel:

    “In my opinion, CDN is not directly related to either TV or the Internet. This is a technology for optimizing traffic and optimizing the cost of content delivery. But I’m not an expert in this, and I will not express an unprofessional look. ”

    Igor Shmakov, Head of Information Technology, TV Center:

    “Demand for CDN services will develop in proportion to the increase in the number of viewers who use the Internet to watch TV. This growth will continue for another 10 years, and in the coming years we will see an increase in the number of data centers of operators providing video content distribution services through CDN technologies. ”

    Yaroslav Gorodetsky, CEO, CDNvideo:

    “Not so long ago we conducted a study and found out that only 20% of all who watch films on the Internet watch them in HD. This leaves great potential for the growth of video traffic, and therefore for the development of CDN services. Moreover, the first Smart TVs are now being sold, capable of displaying video in 4K (Ultra HD) format. In a couple of years, the consumption of video in this format will become popular, and this is another two-fold increase in traffic compared to HD.

    On the other hand, CDN-operators will develop additional services and specialize in specific areas: television, radio, electronic commerce, etc. For example, we, CDNvideo, specialize in showing videos on the Internet and serving TV channels, our Russian competitors in services for small sites, but in the UK there is a company that specializes in CDN services for radio stations. This is natural - each segment has its own special requirements for CDN, and therefore those CDN operators who specialize in a particular market will win, rather than those who provide a wide range of services and try to catch any client on their networks. ”

    The results. What will be the television of the future? ..

    No one is waiting for a revolution in television. The classic image of the head of the family, who lay down in front of a TV with a remote control in his hands, will not leave life and mass culture for a very long time. Sofa, beer and football will remain in the category of enduring values. But television will remain the one we are used to - a set of channels that make up the background for home life. In general, outwardly everything will remain as it was, but something will change in the nuances.

    Firstly, television will become personal. Moreover, we are unlikely to be composing an individual viewing program for ourselves, delving into the sea of ​​video content. For this we are too lazy. But the TV itself will adapt to our preferences, analyzing our tastes, habits and personal information on the network. He will also show advertising individually - for each family.

    Secondly, television will completely go online. Probably, if the TV appeared now, then it would receive content only through the network. So, broadcasting will disappear over time, and video content will be transmitted via Internet channels. At the same time, traffic will grow many times over, because the quality of the video will be incommensurable with the current one, and the content will become heavier. Now in the Ultra HD format with a horizontal extension of 4000 pixels, only one TV channel is broadcasting, and that is in Japan, but the development of this format is a matter of time.

    All the technologies that can make television unrecognizable already exist. Watching TV programs now could become an immersion in virtual reality. But this is hindered by conservatism - both by viewers and people in the TV industry. However, the changes that experts expect in the coming years will still please the viewers, and we will bring prospects for multiple growth.

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