Study of the labor market of Internet developers
Probably the most common question for managers in IT is “Where can I get programmers?” For HR, in general, each new opening of a developer’s vacancy is a severe challenge, regardless of region or technology platform. Let's see what happens and how to fix the situation.
Statistics: rapid growth and lack of people
Recently, the software development industry in Russia is growing steadily. Turnover in Enterprise development grew by about 12% in 2012, and the Internet market jumped by as much as 30% (Cnews, RAEC). What is the reason for growth in the industry? Inflation is only 6.6%, and price growth is 7% (Ministry of Economic Development, Prime). Where does the rest 5-25% come from? Partly due to the introduction of know-how to optimize work processes, but, for the most part, due to the increase in the volume of services provided.
Brief note about inflation: yes, in my opinion, it affects the growth of the market’s turnover in foreign currency, because it increases the salaries of people and the rates of specialists, according to which agencies sell man-hours to customers.
To do more projects, you need to hire more people. Let's estimate how many programmers work in Russia alone: according to various estimates, in 2010 the number of developers ranged from 70,000 to 350,000 (Microsoft, APKIT, Glance). An estimate of 350 thousand looks more adequate, since according to various data in the world leaders in the number of programmers - the USA and India - about 3 million people work in this area.
Suppose since 2010 the number of developers has grown at a rate of 10%: after all, there is still a house development that was not taken into account in the Cnews rating. Thus, as of 2013, there should be approximately 460 thousand developers in Russia. And next year, about 46 thousand new specialists will be needed.
Where to get the developers?
Where to get 46 thousand programmers? According to research by IBM and APKIT, domestic universities provide only about 85% of the volume required by the IT industry . In addition, there is constant debate about the low quality of students' training, most of which have to be retrained in the workplace. Let’s say businessmen are exacerbating the situation, and universities are at least 70%, but they are closing the required volumes. Almost 14 thousand people remain.
Even less hope for the younger generation remains after looking at the fertility and mortality schedule in Russia for 1990-2009.
Since the average graduate is about 20-22 years old, the next 5-7 years, the number of young engineers will only decrease.
There are two ways to make up for the lack of specialists:
- retraining of people from other professions;
- advanced training of existing developers to a new level.
There is, of course, a potential third option - to quickly bring in a lot of foreign specialists. But something tells me that this will not work out quickly. Over 11 years of working in IT, I saw foreigners only as investors or managers of the parent international company.
And where is the Internet?
We in RIK are unlikely to be able to reach 14 thousand people a year in the near future (about 3 thousand graduate from Bauman MSTU from all faculties). But we can correct the situation even in the segment of developers of Internet projects.
The plan is this:
- Collect data on the needs of Internet companies for developers;
- Publish a general report and analysis results;
- Prepare educational programs for professional development of developers.
- Give market players a big discount.
Briefly explain. Firstly, we did not find a single study of the labor market of Internet developers on the Internet (sorry for the tautology). This is already a fairly large gap, which is worth filling. Business leaders and representatives of educational companies should be guided by what is happening in the labor market. At a minimum, this will help establish a dialogue between business and educational institutions so that training programs are as close to reality as possible.
Secondly, according to the results of the study, we plan to prepare continuing education programs that will best meet the needs of the market. And we are ready to make decent discounts on the training of specialists for the study participants. This is possible due to a strong reduction in marketing costs: there will be no need to test the course for its necessity, there will be no need for advertising costs. This will give a price 20-30% lower than usual.
This approach has been working in mature offline industries for a long time: companies unite to wholesale large quantities of goods or services. Less marketing costs for the seller, lower price for the wholesale buyer, lower price for the end consumer while maintaining quality. Everyone wins.
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