What will the world be like in 2050?

Introduction

In mid-2012, the German company Deutsche Post DHL, the world's leading logistics specialist, published a 200-page Delivering Tomorrow: Logistik 2050 document in which leading company analysts, with the support of international futurists, consider the 5 most likely scenarios for the development of the future. Below is an extract from this document in translation.

Scenario one

More than ever, in 2050 materialism rules the world. The paradigm of quantitative growth has achieved unconditional recognition worldwide, and rampant consumerism has brought the process of satisfying material needs to a new level.

Thanks to the consistent elimination of trade barriers, world trade has multiplied over the past 40 years. At the same time, all attempts at global regulation of sustainable development issues failed . This is due to weak international structures that no longer have any real political power.

Formerly developing countries enter the world stage and begin to dictate their terms of world politics. Meanwhile, the industrial powers of the West are desperately trying to cope with domestic political crises. Their main problem is the growing deficit of state budgets against the backdrop of growing external debts. And this is in the complete absence of growth in the welfare of the population.


Financial markets, centers of trade and consumption are shifting east. In many international organizations, representatives of Asian countries are taking over leadership. The WTO is being replaced by a new free trade organization.
Production sites are moving to the outskirts of Asian consumption centers, and also partially returning to the west. The global transport network (supergrid) accelerates the global traffic of goods.

This world of materialism and consumerism is characterized primarily by the uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources. There is a complete lack of understanding of harmonious and sustainable development, and productivity and profit remain the only indicators of successful economic activity.

Such a scenario will inevitably lead to dramatic changes in the ecology and climate as a whole, which in turn will cause constant natural disasters. Mining from the depths of the oceans and in the Arctic will become commonplace, and as a result, the already disturbed biosphere of the earth will be completely destroyed.

Scenario Two

In 2050, urban agglomerations ( mega- cities ) will become the epicenters of social, economic and political development.

Megacities will become the main initiator of the “green” development, from which, in fact, they will benefit more than everyone else. Typical problems of expanding urban (infra) structures, such as air pollution and traffic jams, will be addressed jointly by cities.

High-performance transport concepts, such as underground freight transport and new public transport solutions, will unload urban highways. Computer-controlled plants no longer pollute the environment with carbon dioxide emissions. A global transport network (supergrid) is being formed, which provides stable trade links between megacities.

With the support of international organizations, megacities will promote free trade and global governance models. In these new centers of world culture, technological progress is rapidly developing and the well-being of residents is growing. At the same time, the countryside is falling into ever greater decline.

Breakthroughs in the field of information and communication technologies will lead to an unprecedented degree of automation. Robotics will be able to revolutionize not only production, but also the service sector. Due to such a high degree of automation, the level of employment will decrease. Consumer habits will also change: instead of buying, they will increasingly be renting.

Scenario 3

By 2050, individualism is becoming a global global trend.
In the process of a general increase in the level of education, the spread of new digital technologies and a global increase in the level of well-being, the need for personalization of products will determine consumer behavior in everyday life. The desire to stand out will be the only goal in life.

The industry, in turn, will do its utmost in this, offering consumers a wide range of opportunities to customize the product, taking into account their personal preferences.

Personalization of products and regional production structures are accompanied by a decentralized energy supply system and infrastructure. At the same time, regional regulation of trade is increasing, because now trade flows occur exclusively at the regional level. Only the exchange of raw materials and data is still global.

Food production also occurs locally i.e. directly where it is consumed.

Technological progress is developing rapidly. The most important individualized production technology is 3-D printing. Over the past 20 years, 3-D printers have been improved more and more, and their production and maintenance has become more profitable. Thanks to this, 3-D printing technology has won a leading position not only for production on an industrial scale, but has also become an integral attribute in households.

The main problem in the world of individualism will be the issue of security. First of all, copyright and the uncontrolled flow of personal data will be affected.

Due to the fact that production has become piece-wise and regional, all the positive economic effects of global mass production disappear: there is no division of labor, inefficient use of raw materials, and increased energy costs.

The increased growth of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere continues, which only accelerates global warming and disruption of the Earth’s biosphere. Until the end of the century, the temperature on the globe will increase by an average of 3.5 ° C.

Scenario 4

The general economic decline leads to the fact that globalization is no longer a generally accepted dogma. World trade is rapidly declining. Most countries erect customs and tariff barriers to protect their domestic markets.
In the international arena, all political decisions are made solely for reasons of national interest.

Meanwhile, the second generation of people will grow up in the world of protectionism, and the memory of the benefits of free world trade disappears almost completely.
Trade traffic occurs exclusively within individual regional trading blocks. Also, most supply chains operate exclusively regionally. Only the exchange of raw materials is still global.
All these events shorten the international division of labor and thereby lead
to a general decrease in productivity; trade suffers from insufficient investments in the expansion and maintenance of infrastructure. There is also stagnation in technological and high-tech development.

At the same time, the second big problem is brewing, which will affect primarily Europe and Asia. Namely, the negative fertility trend and the issue of financing old age. So industrialized countries will be forced to spend most of their budgetary funds on providing for aging generations (pensions, benefits, etc.), rather than investing in the development of the economy and trade.

Natural resources are limited. New field developments are unproductive, and only in rare cases is it possible to find a replacement for familiar materials.
Due to the prevailing protectionism and the continuous decline in production efficiency, the negative effects of resource scarcity are exacerbated even more. Real income of the population in traditional industrial countries is significantly reduced, in the rest of the world, the rate of economic growth is reduced.

High energy prices and a severe lack of natural resources are becoming the main cause of inciting ethnic conflicts. Against this background, relations between world trade blocs are deteriorating sharply.

Under these conditions, international efforts to protect the environment, and in particular, attempts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, lose all meaning. The climate continues to change and by the end of the 21st century the temperature on Earth will rise by an average of 3.5 ° C.

Scenario 5

In the early decades of the 21st century, stable energy costs and low-cost automated production have a positive effect on consumption.

However, there was no way to influence climate change. Natural disasters are increasingly occurring that systematically threaten the global supply chains on which the entire modern world economy is built. This leads to shortages in production and undermining global trade structures.

Cost-effective global supply chains can no longer be used. And instead of constantly increasing the efficiency of processes, the new task is to eliminate weaknesses and create more reliable supply structures. Instead of global, regional supply chains are becoming increasingly important.

In certain economic spaces, interstate programs are being created to eliminate the consequences of natural disasters and ensure security of supply. Artificial intelligence technologies are being improved more and more. Cloud intelligence machines now allows you to instantly respond to emergency natural situations. Production facilities and infrastructure, depending on external conditions, can be temporarily mothballed and, if necessary, resume work again.
Recycling of waste and creation of products with low energy consumption become the priority areas of the industry. End users will prefer quality products with a long service life.