June 18, 2012 at 19:30Happiness computer tomorrow
This post is an extrapolation of the application of those technological advances in the field of user interaction interfaces with computer technology, which we can already see now.
Unfortunately, I was late for a few days, and a similar analytics was already posted on Habré , which has a number of obvious misses, due, among other things, to economic reasons.
One way or another, this review is based not only on those technologies that are now or will be tomorrow, but also on those technologies that were yesterday, on their development dynamics, without which no extrapolation can exist. Quantum computers, biocomputers, neurocomputers, and everything else will not be described here - I would like to dwell on the class of so-called consumer IT technologies that live in the house of an average user.
The era of a consumer computer should not begin with those monstrous machines that were born in research universities at the dawn of the computer era, but from the mid-70s, when computers began to come to the homes of those who were not, by definition, a programmer or whose work was not directly related to computer technology (for example, writers, accountants, schoolchildren, etc.). Probably the first popular computer of this kind is the Apple II, which was delivered to the end consumer in a fully assembled form, i.e. the user did not need to think about how to assemble it or what software he (user) needed to install for his (computer) performance.
The further history of the development of personal computers went towards increasing productivity and disk space. This optimization of power has always occurred along with the miniaturization of computer components. Compactness has led to the possibility of creating portable computers (laptops) - laptops and tablet computers. Their era is the beginning of the 80s.
The miniaturization of system units led to the appearance of barebone systems and nettops. Moreover, the latter take up so little space that they can be hung on the back of the monitor (where on modern monitors there are special mounts for this). Of course, this miniaturization is currently leading to a reduction in computing power in these systems, but the last three to five years this capacity is enough to serve all the needs of the average consumer, of which there are not so many: browsers, office products, hd-quality films .
It is worth distinguishing between the average consumer of personal computer resources and everyone else. The average user does not play the most modern computer games (especially at maximum settings), he does not compile programs, he does not render images and three-dimensional scenes, he does not work with graphics using professional graphic software processors, etc. All these are needs beyond the average.
In parallel with the development of computing, telecommunications is developing. The beginning of the consumer Internet can be considered the middle of the 90s, when the main data transfer protocols were formed, the domain name system and the first browsers appeared. In the future, the development of consumer Internet was associated with the development of the first wave of all-pervasive communication (purvasive communication) - social networks and their integration into other Internet resources (transferring some functionality of these networks to resources that were not originally intended for this). Remember this important definition.
It is worth noting that the term purvasive communication, however, like purvasive computing (more about it later), was not taken from the ceiling, but was drawn from the latest foreign scientific articles. In RuNet such words at the moment almost never occur.
The development of parallel computing methods and communication networks has influenced the creation of supercomputers, computing clusters, grid infrastructures and cloud computing. We will not consider the first ones, because their capacities are not designed to meet the needs of the average consumer. Still others may be built on the basis of second, first or other computing devices. The latter can technically be implemented on all of the above. We will be interested only in cloud services, which began to appear closer to the end of the first decade of the new millennium.
The concept of clouds naturally gave rise to several patterns of their consumption, namely: SaaS (software as a service), PaaS (platform as a service), IaaS (infrastructure as a service) and, what is more valuable to us, WaaS (workplace as a service).
Although quite recently another model appeared - processor time as a service (I don’t remember the abbreviation).
Of these, Windows Azure and Amazon Web Services are the best known. Now you can not install the software on your local computer, but use it directly on the provider's website (for example, Google Docs). And not only programs, but also operating systems (Google Chrome OS).
Let's move from history and the present to the future.
I want to immediately note that this extrapolation is mainly based on economic concepts, because ultimately, it is they who decide what will be on the market and what will not be on the market, regardless of the genius or usefulness of a particular technology. This is tough, but it is.
In the theory of solving inventive problems, there is such a thing as an ideal end result. From the point of view of this concept, an ideal system is a system that does not exist, but its functions are performed. How to achieve this is beautifully described in TRIZ books; interested send to them, this is a very useful material, especially for any designer or systems analyst. Let's look at system blocks from this point of view.
On the one hand, modern system units cover all the needs of the average user, and their size approaches the size of the average book. On the other hand, all these needs can already be met with just one browser. Why should the average user buy (that is, go and choose) a particular program when his information provider (for example, Google) offers him good options. And then think about maintenance in case of technical breakdowns, problems with software, their relevance, security, etc. At the same time, not the computing power of his own system comes to the forefront, but the bandwidth of his Internet access channel.
The consumer does not want to think, he wants to consume. He does not want a computer, he wants his needs to be met - the use of services. For this, he does not need a computer as such, as a personal computer is only his means in satisfying his needs. All the average consumer needs is an Internet access interface, which is limited only by the communication channel that his Internet provider provides him with, a monitor for displaying information and information input interfaces (at the moment, a mouse and keyboard). All the computing power that the user possessed will be transferred to the cloud, access to which will be delivered automatically by his Internet provider. The consumer will not need to think and monitor the state of his computer, the lack of it. He will not think about the security of storage or the loss of his data - for him this will be done by a cloud provider working according to the WaaS scheme when the user receives a fully equipped workspace. This type of service will be on a par with utilities as mandatory - at the moment the UNalready recognized the right to access the Internet as an inalienable human right.
The monitor, as you know, does not work without a computer. And the TV is working. The increase in the intellectual capabilities of modern TVs (Smart TV) has made it possible to access the Internet and interact with other user devices (for example, the latest concept of Opera TV browser or Xbox) Considering that all the needs that only a computer could fulfill earlier, a cloud can now fulfill, for access to which only the Internet is needed, it is expected that the monitor will no longer be necessary for the consumer, instead of that, what is already available will be used every home has a TV. Thus, another consumer problem is solved - he does not need to think about which monitor to buy (he needs to think about which TV, but he thinks about it already).
There are only data entry interfaces left - mouse and keyboard. You don’t really connect them to the TV. However, for the average user, they may not be needed. With the development of touch screens, the software interfaces of the products themselves and how to interact with them have changed significantly. So, in touchscreen devices, there is no such action as “hovering over an object”. Moreover, for the average user, the functionality of the keyboard and mouse is clearly redundant (Who knows what the “Pause / Break” button does? Do many mortals use the F-keys?). In order to replace it, I propose to turn to modern interfaces.
As already mentioned about the ideal system, it is better that the consumer does not have any technical input devices at all, or their functions are transferred to other devices. I want to once again draw your attention to videos about Opera TV browser and Xbox and a bunch of three components - a TV, tablet and smartphone. It has already been said about the TV that the functions of the computer will be transferred to it. The tablet itself is a confirmation of this theory, because in fact, it is nothing but a screen (monitor) with touch input. We’ll talk about the smartphone later.
The tablet can completely replace the keyboard in case of access to the Internet via TV, because voice dictation can be very, very tedious. Add convex screen technology to your tabletto reduce the flaws of the letter miss, and you will not be torn from it. In all other cases, when text input is not expected, the methods of interacting with the TV are simplified by voice commands and gesture control , or so . And along with the development of program interfaces, the energy consumption (calories) of a user for interacting with such an interface can be reduced to a minimum. As a result, neither the keyboard, nor the mouse will simply not be needed. The consumer will only have a TV, tablet and smartphone (which will include the functionality of the remote control from the TV), which will satisfy all his needs.
Here it is worth mentioning all the semi-invasive and invasive interfaces that science fiction loves so much. They will never be accepted by the average consumer. The average consumer does not like when a headset is constantly stuck in his ear, he does not like when a USB flash drive is inserted into it (thank God, there is nowhere to go), he will not transfer any nose filters and the like. People even gave up glasses in favor of contact lenses, including because they do not tolerate the aggregates in front of their eyes (you don’t feel contact lenses, right?). When a consumer has a choice between a device that will cause him more inconvenience and less inconvenience, he will choose the second (taking into account the hypothesis that the consumer is not chasing the price, and the cost of both goods is approximately equal). It is a fact. The market will reject these developments even before they try to advertise them there (only as an exclusive product for geeks).
I would like to mention two more important things that will find their implementation in the near future. The first is advances in artificial intelligence, such as understanding natural language, intelligent search, and intelligent agents. With the first, everything is quite clear and we can see its fairly tolerable implementations in the same Siri, the question is only about the optimization of algorithms. By intelligent search in this post I understand all the request-response mechanisms that are used by the average consumer of content. This can include searching for information in search engines, searching for goods and services, and searching for people on social networks, which has a high share of relevance, taking into account the created portrait of a seeking consumer based on his previous requests. The synthesis of such consumer services will result in the creation of some kind of intelligent agent - an assistant who will help the average consumer both in traveling on the global web and in home life (more on this below). WaaS, built on the concepts of an intelligent agent, will change the way the user interacts with the operating system. The user will not give clear instructions on the execution of certain instructions to such an agent, he will communicate with him as a more or less real being (not a person, but a being). This agent will also make a portrait of the consumer and his family members, take initiative in various issues, and help the average user live in the modern world. It can start from a request / order / command to display the weather forecast on the TV screen, before searching for tickets in St. Tropez that would be beneficial to the consumer. Obviously, an expert system (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example,“EVA” project) (I have no relation to this project; the link is not for advertising purposes, but for the purpose of representing what this is about ). The aforementioned intelligent agent will be something like a butler, who monitors all electronic equipment, manages its performance and executes user commands.
The development of all these ideas is the concept of pervasive computing, when computers and software, or rather their functionality, are always and everywhere available to a standard user. This concept is best reflected in the Microsoft Productivity Future Vision video.. And in this concept, the consumer’s smartphone plays the first role, something that is always with him. The development of wireless networks, cloud technologies and the boom of mobile applications has greatly approximated the future of IT technologies described by me. The “Internet of things” has appeared, when data from various sensors are collected in a single database, structured and information in a processed form is presented to the end user, for example, traffic information. All-pervasive communication (purvasive communication), when a user directly (and not through accounts) interacts with Internet resources (and not only the Internet), will make the user more open, which can lead to changes in the ethical standards of societies that have passed into the information age.
PS I, unfortunately, very little touched on the topic of intelligent technologies in this post, because it is already quite long. I will try to write in more detail about the concepts of ubiquitous communication and computerization in the next post.
Unfortunately, I was late for a few days, and a similar analytics was already posted on Habré , which has a number of obvious misses, due, among other things, to economic reasons.
One way or another, this review is based not only on those technologies that are now or will be tomorrow, but also on those technologies that were yesterday, on their development dynamics, without which no extrapolation can exist. Quantum computers, biocomputers, neurocomputers, and everything else will not be described here - I would like to dwell on the class of so-called consumer IT technologies that live in the house of an average user.
Past and present
The era of a consumer computer should not begin with those monstrous machines that were born in research universities at the dawn of the computer era, but from the mid-70s, when computers began to come to the homes of those who were not, by definition, a programmer or whose work was not directly related to computer technology (for example, writers, accountants, schoolchildren, etc.). Probably the first popular computer of this kind is the Apple II, which was delivered to the end consumer in a fully assembled form, i.e. the user did not need to think about how to assemble it or what software he (user) needed to install for his (computer) performance.
The further history of the development of personal computers went towards increasing productivity and disk space. This optimization of power has always occurred along with the miniaturization of computer components. Compactness has led to the possibility of creating portable computers (laptops) - laptops and tablet computers. Their era is the beginning of the 80s.
The miniaturization of system units led to the appearance of barebone systems and nettops. Moreover, the latter take up so little space that they can be hung on the back of the monitor (where on modern monitors there are special mounts for this). Of course, this miniaturization is currently leading to a reduction in computing power in these systems, but the last three to five years this capacity is enough to serve all the needs of the average consumer, of which there are not so many: browsers, office products, hd-quality films .
It is worth distinguishing between the average consumer of personal computer resources and everyone else. The average user does not play the most modern computer games (especially at maximum settings), he does not compile programs, he does not render images and three-dimensional scenes, he does not work with graphics using professional graphic software processors, etc. All these are needs beyond the average.
In parallel with the development of computing, telecommunications is developing. The beginning of the consumer Internet can be considered the middle of the 90s, when the main data transfer protocols were formed, the domain name system and the first browsers appeared. In the future, the development of consumer Internet was associated with the development of the first wave of all-pervasive communication (purvasive communication) - social networks and their integration into other Internet resources (transferring some functionality of these networks to resources that were not originally intended for this). Remember this important definition.
It is worth noting that the term purvasive communication, however, like purvasive computing (more about it later), was not taken from the ceiling, but was drawn from the latest foreign scientific articles. In RuNet such words at the moment almost never occur.
The development of parallel computing methods and communication networks has influenced the creation of supercomputers, computing clusters, grid infrastructures and cloud computing. We will not consider the first ones, because their capacities are not designed to meet the needs of the average consumer. Still others may be built on the basis of second, first or other computing devices. The latter can technically be implemented on all of the above. We will be interested only in cloud services, which began to appear closer to the end of the first decade of the new millennium.
The concept of clouds naturally gave rise to several patterns of their consumption, namely: SaaS (software as a service), PaaS (platform as a service), IaaS (infrastructure as a service) and, what is more valuable to us, WaaS (workplace as a service).
Although quite recently another model appeared - processor time as a service (I don’t remember the abbreviation).
Of these, Windows Azure and Amazon Web Services are the best known. Now you can not install the software on your local computer, but use it directly on the provider's website (for example, Google Docs). And not only programs, but also operating systems (Google Chrome OS).
Let's move from history and the present to the future.
Future
I want to immediately note that this extrapolation is mainly based on economic concepts, because ultimately, it is they who decide what will be on the market and what will not be on the market, regardless of the genius or usefulness of a particular technology. This is tough, but it is.
In the theory of solving inventive problems, there is such a thing as an ideal end result. From the point of view of this concept, an ideal system is a system that does not exist, but its functions are performed. How to achieve this is beautifully described in TRIZ books; interested send to them, this is a very useful material, especially for any designer or systems analyst. Let's look at system blocks from this point of view.
On the one hand, modern system units cover all the needs of the average user, and their size approaches the size of the average book. On the other hand, all these needs can already be met with just one browser. Why should the average user buy (that is, go and choose) a particular program when his information provider (for example, Google) offers him good options. And then think about maintenance in case of technical breakdowns, problems with software, their relevance, security, etc. At the same time, not the computing power of his own system comes to the forefront, but the bandwidth of his Internet access channel.
The consumer does not want to think, he wants to consume. He does not want a computer, he wants his needs to be met - the use of services. For this, he does not need a computer as such, as a personal computer is only his means in satisfying his needs. All the average consumer needs is an Internet access interface, which is limited only by the communication channel that his Internet provider provides him with, a monitor for displaying information and information input interfaces (at the moment, a mouse and keyboard). All the computing power that the user possessed will be transferred to the cloud, access to which will be delivered automatically by his Internet provider. The consumer will not need to think and monitor the state of his computer, the lack of it. He will not think about the security of storage or the loss of his data - for him this will be done by a cloud provider working according to the WaaS scheme when the user receives a fully equipped workspace. This type of service will be on a par with utilities as mandatory - at the moment the UNalready recognized the right to access the Internet as an inalienable human right.
The monitor, as you know, does not work without a computer. And the TV is working. The increase in the intellectual capabilities of modern TVs (Smart TV) has made it possible to access the Internet and interact with other user devices (for example, the latest concept of Opera TV browser or Xbox) Considering that all the needs that only a computer could fulfill earlier, a cloud can now fulfill, for access to which only the Internet is needed, it is expected that the monitor will no longer be necessary for the consumer, instead of that, what is already available will be used every home has a TV. Thus, another consumer problem is solved - he does not need to think about which monitor to buy (he needs to think about which TV, but he thinks about it already).
There are only data entry interfaces left - mouse and keyboard. You don’t really connect them to the TV. However, for the average user, they may not be needed. With the development of touch screens, the software interfaces of the products themselves and how to interact with them have changed significantly. So, in touchscreen devices, there is no such action as “hovering over an object”. Moreover, for the average user, the functionality of the keyboard and mouse is clearly redundant (Who knows what the “Pause / Break” button does? Do many mortals use the F-keys?). In order to replace it, I propose to turn to modern interfaces.
As already mentioned about the ideal system, it is better that the consumer does not have any technical input devices at all, or their functions are transferred to other devices. I want to once again draw your attention to videos about Opera TV browser and Xbox and a bunch of three components - a TV, tablet and smartphone. It has already been said about the TV that the functions of the computer will be transferred to it. The tablet itself is a confirmation of this theory, because in fact, it is nothing but a screen (monitor) with touch input. We’ll talk about the smartphone later.
The tablet can completely replace the keyboard in case of access to the Internet via TV, because voice dictation can be very, very tedious. Add convex screen technology to your tabletto reduce the flaws of the letter miss, and you will not be torn from it. In all other cases, when text input is not expected, the methods of interacting with the TV are simplified by voice commands and gesture control , or so . And along with the development of program interfaces, the energy consumption (calories) of a user for interacting with such an interface can be reduced to a minimum. As a result, neither the keyboard, nor the mouse will simply not be needed. The consumer will only have a TV, tablet and smartphone (which will include the functionality of the remote control from the TV), which will satisfy all his needs.
Here it is worth mentioning all the semi-invasive and invasive interfaces that science fiction loves so much. They will never be accepted by the average consumer. The average consumer does not like when a headset is constantly stuck in his ear, he does not like when a USB flash drive is inserted into it (thank God, there is nowhere to go), he will not transfer any nose filters and the like. People even gave up glasses in favor of contact lenses, including because they do not tolerate the aggregates in front of their eyes (you don’t feel contact lenses, right?). When a consumer has a choice between a device that will cause him more inconvenience and less inconvenience, he will choose the second (taking into account the hypothesis that the consumer is not chasing the price, and the cost of both goods is approximately equal). It is a fact. The market will reject these developments even before they try to advertise them there (only as an exclusive product for geeks).
I would like to mention two more important things that will find their implementation in the near future. The first is advances in artificial intelligence, such as understanding natural language, intelligent search, and intelligent agents. With the first, everything is quite clear and we can see its fairly tolerable implementations in the same Siri, the question is only about the optimization of algorithms. By intelligent search in this post I understand all the request-response mechanisms that are used by the average consumer of content. This can include searching for information in search engines, searching for goods and services, and searching for people on social networks, which has a high share of relevance, taking into account the created portrait of a seeking consumer based on his previous requests. The synthesis of such consumer services will result in the creation of some kind of intelligent agent - an assistant who will help the average consumer both in traveling on the global web and in home life (more on this below). WaaS, built on the concepts of an intelligent agent, will change the way the user interacts with the operating system. The user will not give clear instructions on the execution of certain instructions to such an agent, he will communicate with him as a more or less real being (not a person, but a being). This agent will also make a portrait of the consumer and his family members, take initiative in various issues, and help the average user live in the modern world. It can start from a request / order / command to display the weather forecast on the TV screen, before searching for tickets in St. Tropez that would be beneficial to the consumer. Obviously, an expert system (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Given the speed of life in the information space, the average user simply will not be able to timely meet one or another of his needs if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, in the apartment of the average consumer there are electronic devices. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, such as a washing machine with thirty-five washing modes. There are communication issues between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of a smart home (for example,“EVA” project) (I have no relation to this project; the link is not for advertising purposes, but for the purpose of representing what this is about ). The aforementioned intelligent agent will be something like a butler, who monitors all electronic equipment, manages its performance and executes user commands.
The development of all these ideas is the concept of pervasive computing, when computers and software, or rather their functionality, are always and everywhere available to a standard user. This concept is best reflected in the Microsoft Productivity Future Vision video.. And in this concept, the consumer’s smartphone plays the first role, something that is always with him. The development of wireless networks, cloud technologies and the boom of mobile applications has greatly approximated the future of IT technologies described by me. The “Internet of things” has appeared, when data from various sensors are collected in a single database, structured and information in a processed form is presented to the end user, for example, traffic information. All-pervasive communication (purvasive communication), when a user directly (and not through accounts) interacts with Internet resources (and not only the Internet), will make the user more open, which can lead to changes in the ethical standards of societies that have passed into the information age.
PS I, unfortunately, very little touched on the topic of intelligent technologies in this post, because it is already quite long. I will try to write in more detail about the concepts of ubiquitous communication and computerization in the next post.